Just released: Our latest Sports Collectibles Market Report!
Phillips's London evening sale of 20th century and contemporary art on March 7, which garnered £13.7 million ($17.3 million), failed to meet its presale estimate and fell short compared to the previous year’s equivalent sale. However, this event demonstrated some optimism for the art market in 2024, particularly within the contemporary sector, with new records set for artists Jesse Mockrin and Kehinde Wiley. The sale highlighted Phillips's year-on-year improvement among the major auction houses and introduced a successful bid for contemporary Saudi Arabian artist Alia Ahmad's work, indicating a positive reception for emerging artists.
The auction featured several standout sales, including Alia Ahmad's debut work which exceeded expectations, selling for four times its low estimate at £80,000 ($101,600), showcasing strong international interest. Additionally, Marina Perez Simão’s work doubled its low estimate, confirming the continued market heat for the Brazilian artist. A notable mention also goes to the sale of a portrait of Princess Diana by Andy Warhol, which sold for £2.4 million ($3.1 million), surpassing its estimated range and marking a high point for the artist’s market regarding Princess Diana-themed works.
Moreover, the auction presented a diverse array of works that captivated buyers worldwide, from Salvo's Mediterraneo fetching an estimate-doubling price to Jordan Wolfson's work almost doubling its presale estimate. ARTNET
In June 2024, Robert A. Siegel Auction Galleries in New York will auction off an extremely rare 1868 one-cent “Z-grill” stamp featuring Benjamin Franklin from the collection of William H. Gross, the founder of Pimco. This stamp, one of only two known to exist and the only one available to collectors, is expected to fetch between $4 million and $5 million, potentially setting a new record for the highest price ever paid for a U.S. postage stamp. The sale will include 100 lots from Gross's prestigious stamp collection, with the auction taking place over two days at the Lotte New York Palace Hotel and the Collectors Club of New York.
The “Z-grill” stamp is distinguished by its unique embossed grill pattern, an anti-fraud feature introduced by the U.S. Post Office following the Civil War to prevent the reuse of stamps. This stamp, along with a few others featuring different grill patterns, represents a rare and significant period in philatelic history. Gross, who has been a major figure in stamp collecting, acquired the Z-grill in 1998 for $935,000, completing his collection and leading to a waning interest in further acquisitions. The upcoming sale of Gross's collection, expected to realize between $15 million and $20 million, marks a significant event in the world of stamp collecting, offering a rare opportunity to own a piece of postal history. ARTNET
A rare, 14-karat gold Lego Bionicle Hau mask discovered in a donation box at a Goodwill store in western Pennsylvania sold for over $18,000, marking it as one of the most expensive individual Lego pieces ever auctioned. The piece, originally made as a limited edition prize for Lego competitions in 2001, was unknowingly listed on ShopGoodwill and fetched a final sale price after attracting significant attention and bids, with proceeds going to support Goodwill's charitable mission. ARTNET
RMSotheby’s Monaco sale will feature the collection of 1979 WDC Jody Sheckter, including multiple Ferrari, Lamborghini, and McLaren automobiles. With the top lot expected to be 1979 Ferrari 312 T4, which is Enzo Ferrari’s last F1 World Championship winning car; estimated at between €5,250,000 - €6,500,000 EUR. RMSOTHEBYS
Rally’s Lamborghini Countach received a buyout offer earlier this week for $1 million. Following that offer they received something of a bidding war that found the car reaching a price of $1,181,250; resulting in a return of +86% since IPO and +125% since last trade. RALLY
An "ultra-specialized" gang of thieves stole a collection valued at around €1.2 million ($1.3 million), including jewelry and gold statues, from the Museo d'Annunzio Segreto at the Vittoriale degli Italiani in northern Italy, leaving behind significant damage to Umberto Mastroianni’s artistic legacy. The heist, carried out with meticulous planning and execution, has prompted an investigation by Italy’s specialized Carabinieri unit, amid concerns that the stolen artifacts may already have been melted down for their gold. ARTNET
Rally will be sending their NASA Apollo 11 Buzz Aldrin Control Stick to auction at RR Auction after an investor vote received 79.85% approval. RALLY
Steve Aoki’s vinyl grading service, Audio Media Grading (AMG), has acquired competitor Tuned in Grading. TWITTER
President of PSA, Ryan Hoge, was interviewed by NYPost about Caitlin Clark cards and their massive surge in value. YOUTUBE
ARTEX Stock Exchange begins trading with their Francis Bacon Canvas. ARTEX YAHOOFINANCE
Robert Edward Auctions is hosting a sale featuring over 3,400 items, including a vast array of baseball cards from historical figures like Honus Wagner and Babe Ruth, modern football cards such as a 2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady Rookie, and a selection of vintage unopened material from various sports. Highlights include a 1911 Sporting Life Honus Wagner Cabinet card, rare Babe Ruth strip cards, and highly graded cards of baseball legends, offering collectors a unique opportunity to acquire rare and iconic pieces with starting bids at $10, running through March 24. SCDAILY
Topps signs deal with Team Great Britain for the Olympics. SCDAILY
Feel free to reach out to Keenan@Altaninsights.com for any questions/comments.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Photo: Pudgy Penguins
This article was featured in our newsletter, Alts & Ends. Click here to subscribe for free and receive the best collectible market insights straight to your inbox on a weekly basis!
Bitcoin is up 63% year-to-date in 2024. Ether is up 70%. After surviving a winter filled with ridicule and told-you-so's, crypto has returned to both the headlines and the upper echelon of financial performers, rapidly gathering momentum and heeding none of the warnings of past cyclical busts. Cryptocurrencies are back like they never left.
While the currencies themselves took their lumps, the derision and mockery they endured paled in comparison to the celebratory funeral performed in memoriam of NFTs. Not since the Ewoks danced the night away around Darth Vader's burning corpse has a mainstream population been so thrilled to commemorate a death. And make no mistake: the vast, vast majority of NFT projects did die. A dappGambl report concluded that over 95% of more than 73,000 NFT projects had a market cap of zero. WAGMI (irritating NFT-speak for "we're all gonna make it") was wildly inaccurate. Less than 5% made it.
And yet, while uncles nationwide dance the lambada in celebration of their brave, Thanksgiving-table stance against cartoon pictures, select projects among the 5% are rising from their coffins like the Undertaker.
The sharp rise of Bitcoin is easily understood given positive market sentiment relating to ETF approval and the corresponding supply and demand imbalance. The arrival of ETFs has restored the crypto evangelist's view toward mainstream adoption, and the winter further concentrated available supply into the hands of those parties with the most conviction. As a result, growing demand, led by ETF fund flows, is forced to face a market landscape in which supply available for sale is limited and newly mined supply is scarcer still. Those circumstances, in addition to the longer-term bull case, create a powder keg for rapid appreciation.
The situation for NFTs, though, is more nuanced. No mainstream ETF flows are coming anytime soon, the overall supply of NFTs is incredibly vast, and the already small community of evangelists is even smaller now. But that doesn't mean some projects can't thrive.
Last week, we detailed the $16 million sale of a CryptoPunk, which more than doubled its last sale in 2021. But it's not just the rare "Alien" Punks mounting an extra-terrestrial comeback. Over the last six months, the CryptoPunks floor price is up 172% in USD terms per NFT Price Floor. While we can attribute much of that growth to the rise in ETH, it does still outpace the cryptocurrency. Plus, whatever the drivers, a current floor price over $200,000 suggests formidable demand for one of the first true community NFTs.
Like other projects, Punks suffered through crypto winter, with the floor price falling from a peak above $415,000 in 2021 to a trough below $53,000 in July 2022. Unlike most other projects, though, the pain somewhat abated from there, with the floor remaining relatively range-bound between $70-105k until last fall. As crypto regained momentum, so too did the Punks, and their resurgence was further buoyed by tight supply, a dynamic perhaps similar to Bitcoin's. Despite the sharp ascendancy in values, only 516 Punks have sold over the last 90 days. Nearly eight times as many Bored Apes have sold over the same period.
Because of their status as a foundational piece of the NFT ecosystem, a forerunner of all that would follow, it seems CryptoPunks are a magnet for demand from those who still believe in a bright future for NFTs as a vehicle. Their success, then, does not rely materially on a team's execution abilities, gaming applications, or airdrops (at least not to date). So far, their value is derived from something that can't be replicated, replaced, or tarnished. That could all change at a moment's notice, and one might argue the staying power is not at all comparable to, say, Michael Jordan's immovable position in basketball collecting. Skeptics can still offer most, if not all, of the traditional, low-hanging arguments against NFTs to contest the rationale for a CryptoPunk being worth at least $200k. Nonetheless, the market's continued validation of the project as one that stands elevated above peers is worth noting.
Not every project has enjoyed the same validation. Once more valuable than CryptoPunks, Bored Apes, which boasted the cool factor of celebrity ownership and experiential exclusivity, have not recovered with the crypto space. The 53% USD increase in floor price over the last 6 months is nothing to sneeze at, but relative to crypto broadly, it's not something for the Apes to beat their chests about either. Over the last 90 days, the average USD sale price is up about 17%; that figure is 89% for CryptoPunks. In ETH terms, that's a resounding loss in value for the Apes.
Some of BAYC's initial rise in value is attributable to consistent access to additional assets rounding out the Ape community, whether in the form of Mutant Apes, ApeCoin, or Otherside land. Ownership of an Ape meant access to more stuff in the ecosystem, and when the hype was at its highest, that stuff was valuable. Of course, the continued distribution of those derivative assets meant significant increases in supply, and for those assets to remain valuable, it would require the continued introduction of new demand. Crypto winter extinguished those hopes, making the premise of "more stuff" less appealing.
But the Apes - and Yuga Labs more broadly - have also been plagued by faltering execution. The Otherside game, where many of these assets would have value, has faced persistent delays, and the company's gaming efforts - those that have graced the public eye, anyway - have been panned. The gaming stumbles are demonstrative of organizational turmoil at Yuga, which saw Activision vet Daniel Alegre enter and exit as CEO of the company in less than a year.
As for the cool factor, that's tough to maintain amid falling values and reports of severe eye-burn caused by UV lights at a BAYC event. Nothing "cool" about damage to the eyes. Suddenly, the laser-eyed Apes seem kind of messed up, like Dale and Brennan's tuxedos when they botch the job interview in Step Brothers.
The struggles are emblematic of execution risk in collectibles. The more the value of a collectible depends on the execution abilities of human beings, whether via marketing, ecosystem building, or otherwise, the higher the risk. Executing the lofty BAYC vision, which sounded promising to many 2-3 years ago, has proven challenging. CryptoPunks, even though their brand is also owned by Yuga Labs, do not face the same challenges.
Execution risk isn't always a bad thing. Sharp, targeted execution can be the difference between floundering in the icy waters of crypto winter and waddling toward a brighter future - just ask the Pudgy Penguins.
When members of the "Huddle" feared a rug-pull in 2022, with the project's founding members struggling to execute the vision they laid out originally, it was clear change was needed or the "Pengus" too would join the 95% of zeroed-out projects. That's when Luca Netz acquired the brand and began building the igloo that would insulate the Penguins from a bear market. Netz and team have built the brand carefully and strategically, all while maintaining a focus on creating the infrastructure for members of the Huddle to enjoy licensing revenue from the use of their Penguins.
Most notably, Pudgy Penguins toys recently earned an extension of a partnership with Walmart, which delivered more than $10 million in sales across over 750,000 toys sold. The characters are resonating in the real world, but the grander vision points once again to an open, digital meeting ground called Pudgy World; QR codes sold with the physical toys will enable customizations and unlocks in the game. Such a vision has yet to achieve success elsewhere, and the risk remains significant. As quickly as something becomes cool, it can fall out of favor with poor execution.
For the moment though, tactful execution has propelled the Penguins to new heights. At the time of that changing of the guard in 2022, the Penguins' floor price was under 1 ETH, while BAYC's lingered in the 60s. Today, they trade close to parity at 13-14 ETH (mid $50,000s).
Typically, one expects a phoenix to rise from the ashes, not a penguin, but there's nothing typical about NFTs, is there? They're not rising in lockstep, though, and the rising crypto tide isn't lifting all boats, many of which were already left destroyed on the ocean floor. Those that do rise are relying on more watertight construction or superior navigational skills. As always, NFTs may not be for everyone, particularly as collectibles, but there are lessons to be learned regardless. To the extent a collector is financially motivated, they should be aware of the execution risk present in the collectible of their choosing and confident in the parties responsible for managing that risk.
Failure to do so can result in getting burned, both in the wallet and - apparently - the eyes.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Sotheby's London garnered £100 million ($126.6 million) from a somewhat subdued modern and contemporary art evening sale, including the The Now auction of ultra-contemporary works. While achieving close to its presale low estimate before fees, the event was neither a resounding success nor a failure, showing a steady, if cautious, market. Top prices were fetched by established artists, but significant excitement was generated by several newcomers, particularly female artists, with records set by Takako Yamaguchi and Rebecca Warren, and notable sales for Jadé Fadojutimi and Emma Webster.
Despite a low proportion of guaranteed works, the Sotheby’s auction saw a few sparks of intense bidding, notably for Francis Bacon's "Study of George Dyer," which sold for £6.8 million ($8.7 million), and Françoise Gilot's portrait from Arianna Huffington's collection, achieving four times its estimate at £723,900 ($918,774). The sale, marked by international participation from 41 countries, reflects a cautious optimism in the recovering art market.
Christie's recent London auction underscored its market dominance, generating £196.7 million ($251.8 million), a significant leap from last year's £128 million ($163.9 million). The event was highlighted by Francis Bacon's "Landscape near Malabata, Tangier" fetching £19.63 million ($24.9 million) as the top lot. With 87 offerings, 69 lots sold, demonstrating a strong 79% sell-through rate. Despite withdrawing 7 lots, Christie's exceeded presale estimates, reflecting the auction's robust performance.
Notably, 25 lots were guaranteed, with a whopping 61% of the presale low estimate covered by third-party guarantees. Additionally, the auction set new records for women artists, including Allison Katz and Jadé Fadojutimi, showcasing a growing recognition of female talent in the art market.
Iowa women's basketball star Caitlin Clark signs a landmark multi-year deal with Panini America for trading cards and memorabilia, marking the company's first exclusive partnership with a female athlete. This collaboration, highlighting Clark's significant achievements and her status as a generational talent, will launch with a special collection celebrating her as the all-time leading scorer in women's college basketball, with pre-orders expected in April. SICOLLECTS
Author Neil Gaiman sat down with Heritage Auctions before the sale of his collection to talk about collecting and what the pieces mean to him. YOUTUBE
Photographer Michael J. Le Brecht has sued both Upper Deck and Fanatics on copyright infringement, he has alleged that the trading card companies have used his iconic photo of Lebron dunking. TWITTER
The Frida Kahlo Corporation (FKC) filed lawsuits against online sellers for counterfeiting its trademarks on Frida Kahlo products, demanding $2 million per infringement or all associated profits. The lawsuit, aimed at protecting the iconic artist's image, claims these sellers are part of an interconnected network using "fictitious names" to evade legal action and sell counterfeit items. ARTNET
Heritage Sports has announced reaching $1 Billion in total sales since opening the department in 2004. YOUTUBE
MeiGray is running three auctions for practice and photo-shoot worn jerseys from Islanders and Devils players during the Stadium Series. MEIGRAY
Adweek highlights how Topps and Fanatics are leveraging nostalgia and name, image, and likeness (NIL) deals, featuring athletes across generations like LeBron James and his son Bronny, to connect with both millennial collectors and younger demographics. These efforts aim to expand the sports trading card market, currently valued at $12.9 billion, by tapping into the memories of older fans while building new ones with younger audiences. ADWEEK
A JMW Turner watercolor, bought for £100 at a clearance sale, has been identified as the artist's early work and set for auction with a £20,000–£30,000 estimate. The painting, once unknown and hung in a dining room, was authenticated through Tate's Turner Bequest, showcasing Turner's architectural draughtsmanship from his tours around Britain starting in 1791. ARTNEWS
Guy Wildenstein, a prominent French-American art dealer, has been found guilty of tax fraud by a Paris appeals court, concluding a lengthy legal battle over accusations of concealing artworks to evade inheritance taxes. Wildenstein, 78, president of Wildenstein & Co. in New York, received a four-year prison sentence for what prosecutors have called "the most sophisticated tax fraud" in modern France, involving artworks hidden across various countries and entities. ARTNEWS
Altan Insights has partnered with Styr Trade on a blog post outlining interesting sneaker trades from the last year. ALTAN INSIGHTSSTYRTRADE
Feel free to reach out to Keenan@Altaninsights.com for any questions/comments.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
This article was featured in our newsletter, Alts & Ends. Click here to subscribe for free and receive the best collectible market insights straight to your inbox on a weekly basis!
Consolidation has become the norm in the already incestuous collectibles industry. By now, we're accustomed to watching the category's titans plug gaps in their offerings with complementary acquisitions. That's par for the course. What we've seen less of, though, are acquisitions with significant competitive overlap between target and acquirer. That changed in a significant way last week when Collectors Holdings Inc., the parent company of card-grading market leader PSA, announced its acquisition of SGC Grading.
Suddenly, Hobby Twitter became wealthy with newly gathered expertise in competition law. "Monopoly!" was no longer a board game featuring a monocled man and a thimble, but instead the outcry of the frustrated collector. Like loyal fans who watched in disgust as their favorite under-the-radar band sold out and went mainstream, many with an affinity for SGC bemoaned what the new state of play might portend. In fairness, it seems that the collecting community rarely supports anything change-related in the Hobby.
From the Collectors (capital C) point of view, you could make the case for any number of rationales in support of the acquisition. First and foremost, SGC is a rising competitor in card grading. Though the company has been around since 1998, it won the affection of a growing number of collectors in recent years, particularly at the height of the grading surge during and after the pandemic. While incumbent leaders slogged through backlogs and raised prices according to the fickle laws of supply and demand, SGC seemed to offer a friendly alternative. Shorter lead times, lower prices, and according to some, better customer service.
Data from Gemrate suggests SGC only tallied a little less than a tenth of PSA's total volume of graded cards in 2023. For the moment, the company remained small in scale compared to the industry leader, and PSA's market share was not under immediate, existential threat. But that doesn't mean there was no threat.
In 2023, Gemrate data shows SGC increased total card grading volume by close to 30%, including 24% growth in sports and an explosion in TCG from a very small base. By comparison, PSA's total volume was up 20%, but that growth was driven entirely by TCG; Sports & Misc was down about 2%. There is evidence of growing SGC appeal in card values as well as card volumes. Data from CardLadder indicates that high-graded SGC cards have outperformed their PSA counterparts in pivotal ultra-modern sports categories over the last two years.
SGC wasn't going to surpass PSA in share tomorrow. Or the next day. Or the day after. But, it boasted one of the industry's strongest collector approval ratings, rapid growth across categories, and the three most expensive sports cards of all time, each nestled snugly in tuxedo slabs. By acquiring SGC now, Collectors turns a looming threat into a resource, bolstering its own competitive position with grading talent and introducing potential benefits of infrastructure and scale to SGC.
However, it would be fair to argue that SGC posed the greatest threat to PSA and Collectors not on its own, but rather as a weapon wielded by a larger competitor. The acquisition could have instead served as a pre-emptive strike against a potential Fanatics entrance into the authentication and grading space. If Fanatics is indeed looking to enter the category - given the grader-sized hole in its current arsenal of collectibles products and services - what target was better than SGC? And if the company is looking elsewhere (at Beckett, for example), then Collectors' competitive position is all the stronger to ward off whatever threat it poses. If Fanatics isn't looking to enter the space, which is entirely possible, then Collectors' position remains formidable.
Of course, collectors (lowercase c) don't have to like any of those justifications. They preferred their plucky underdog the way it was. While the party line is that SGC will continue to operate as an independent brand, collectors rare fearing and suspecting the worst (as they tend to do), certain that the plucky competitiveness will fade aboard the Death Star of a larger collectibles empire. Will those collector-friendly traits slowly diminish under the corporate thumb? Will SGC be positioned as a discount brand, weakening the value of SGC-graded cards on the secondary market?
For Collectors, the move is another that makes some in the collecting community uneasy following the acquisition of Goldin a few years back. If collectors were uncomfortable about the closeness of a grading company and an auction house, you can imagine they'll be similarly displeased about the closeness of a grading titan and a smaller competitor. Goldin, however, is heavily rumored (emphasis on rumor) to be on the auction block itself, and an SGC-in-Goldin-out maneuver would represent a refocused emphasis on the true picks and shovels of the collecting universe.
Without wading haphazardly into the complexities of competition law like a golfer into the long alligator-filled grass in search of his ball, it does seem likely that myriad parties will fume at the consummation of this deal. And unless Collectors want the ranks of the fuming to grow, the company would be wise to heed one directive: keep your mitts off the tuxedo slab. Some collectors just fancy the black-tie look.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
.jpg)
Photo: Diego Jaramillo
This sneaker market content is produced in partnership with STYR Trade, the next-generation, instant-trading sneaker marketplace. Sign up for the STYR waitlist today.
Big picture, 2023 was a reset year in sneakers after feverish activity in the years prior. While it wasn’t a year of broad, explosive appreciation, there were still trading opportunities for those with a trained eye. In some cases, those opportunities arose from volatility, whether caused by restocks, news, or seasonality. In other cases, an imbalance of supply and demand for some of the year’s most coveted drops created unyielding positive momentum. Let’s unbox ten of the most interesting sneakers to trade over the last 12 months.
It will surprise few to find the consensus 2023 Sneaker of the Year on this list. From the moment photos started to surface, sneakerheads globally applauded the fresh take on an old favorite. Despite a few shock-drop restocks, supply was never sufficient to satiate the rampant demand that followed, particularly as the shoe continued to headline sneaker award conversations going into year-end. Per StockX price chart data, the price for the most popular size 10 hit its annual low in the days after release at $354. By year end, it was at $520, continuing to trend upwards today. Without factoring in any fees (more on fee drag later), that’s a gain of 50% for an instant classic.
The largest outcomes came in the largest sizes. Size 13s sold for as little as $398 in the immediate aftermath of the release. Today, prices hover just below $700, improving upon that 50% gain in size 10 with a 75% gain here. Brands often offer less supply of larger sizes, so prices can rise more explosively when a sneaker is a hit. For example, size 13s had about a third of the volume of size 10s over the last 12 months on StockX.
There was no shortage of volume available to trade overall: over the last 12 months, StockX reports nearly 26,000 pairs sold across sizes at an average price of $392, amounting to over $10 million in total volume.
A sneaker doesn’t need to headline any award lists to be an interesting candidate for price appreciation. Perhaps drafting in the wake of a standout year for the Jordan 4, the “Thunder” release dropped to little acclaim and low premiums in May but consistently rallied throughout 2023. Resale prices dipped below $250 weeks after release and ended the year above $310, good for 24% gains before the dreaded fees. Believe it or not, the Thunders were actually responsible for more StockX volume over the last 12 months than the acclaimed Pine Green release, with more than 43,000 pairs selling at a total volume of more than $11.8 million.
Few sneakers have been more volatile than Yeezys over the last 18 months, and the Onyx 350 V2 is a striking example of an erratic price chart. When Ye was at his worst and the Adidas partnership was terminated, resale markets actually reacted by considering the possibility that Yeezy supply would dry up. Prices of the Onyx 350 increased from levels between $320-330 before the announcement to a January peak of $416 before a February retreat to $327 and a subsequent April rally back to $405.
And then, the restock hit.
Additional pairs flooding to market meant that prices cratered, reaching a trough of $235 in June. Once the market digested those pairs, a slow but steady march to higher prices resumed. While the StockX price chart shows levels around $270 for a size 10 today, recent sales on the platform don’t reflect transactions that high.
Playing the restock as a Level 1 Seller on StockX - with a 9% transaction fee and shipping charges - would make profits hard to come by. Successful outcomes in this specific case would’ve required scale (leading to more accommodative fees) and/or lesser platform friction. Generally speaking, the frictional costs on the incumbent platforms dull or even eliminate profits for sellers lacking scale and higher selling credentials; conducting both the purchase and sale transactions on one of these platforms would make many trading opportunities more theoretical than achievable in practice.
Additionally, the pain would’ve been immense for a buyer at the top of the market who had buyer’s remorse and chose to sell after the restock:
As an aside, two-way shipping erodes profits for pure speculators who don’t actually need the sneakers in their possession, and it also poses disadvantages of time if those buyers wish to sell the sneakers quickly, as they may miss opportunities to sell while waiting on inventory to ship to them.
If the inclusion of the “Thunder” Jordan 4 surprised you, you’ll be floored to see an UGG slipper. But the price charts don’t lie. UGG Brand had a massive 2023, closing the year with 15% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter ending December 31st. Among the popular products was the women’s Tasman Slipper, but if you were paying attention in 2022, that wouldn’t have come as a shock. In 2022, resale prices increased more than three-fold from a low near $50 in the summer to over $170 in the weeks ahead of the holidays. The increase in popularity late in the year accompanies the arrival of the holidays and colder temperatures, and the willingness of sellers to part with pairs in the heat of summer tells you the market is not particularly efficient.
Inefficiency means opportunity.
In 2023, prices once again dipped below $100 to a trough of $88 before exploding as high as $155 on December 9th. More than 37,000 pairs traded hands on StockX over the last 12 months, providing plenty of opportunity to play this seasonality-driven trend.
The “Reimagined” Jordan 3 release was predictably among the most popular and sought-after sneakers of the year. It took little foresight to expect that - even in a down year - one of the most iconic Jordan colorways would attract more demand than supply could satisfy. As is not uncommon for sneaker releases, prices for Reimagined pairs dipped in the weeks following their March release. In May, size 10 pairs reached their low beneath $250, steadily rising to follow the typical J-curve of a release. Prices finished the year near $325, where they continue to linger today. Playing the J-curve won’t always work out, but with a little patience, the right sneaker, and some opportunistic action, the industry’s icons tend to pay off.
This was the highest volume sneaker on StockX from our list over the last 12 months, generating over 43,000 sales and total volume just under $12 million across all sizes.
As highlighted in the Yeezy example, restocks can create opportunity as sellers hastily unload pairs fearing the new supply will forever reset the prevailing market price to lower levels. That sharp drawdown in price is often short-lived as the market eventually digests new supply and returns to a demand-driven trajectory. Late year restocks of the Light Orewood Brown Women’s Dunk sent prices cratering from above $300 in the first quarter of the year to a low of $119 in November. By year-end, though, prices had rebounded to $191 and they continue to hover in the high $100s today. Some might overlook the women’s sneaker space, but the category is significantly more active than it was ten or even five years ago.
Few brands have been hotter than New Balance over the last two years, and Action Bronson’s collaborations on the 990v6 were among the most desirable releases of 2023. The “Baklava” colorway was polarizing among sneakerheads, and the initial buzz faded in the months following their March release, bringing size 10s to a low of $305 in early June. Since then, the value has increased, occasionally finding sale prices above $450 and mostly settling just below $400. Supply has largely dried up, but Action Bronson collab hype hasn’t, with New Balance 1906R releases set to hit in 2024.
The less touted “Lapis Lazuli” colorway also offered under-the-radar upside, reaching a low under $250 and selling in the mid-to-high $300s more recently.
By far the lowest volume sneaker on our list, only 442 pairs of the ASICS Gel-Kayano 14 Kith collab have sold over the last 12 months on StockX. But that low volume is in part what allowed for such significant appreciation in recent months. The ASICS Gel-Kayano 14 was among the breakout models in the mesh runner trend that took hold of the sneaker market in late 2022 and 2023. So the marriage of the model’s popularity, the demand for KITH collaborations, and the low supply pushed the price from a low of $267 a week after release to sale prices in the low-to-mid $400s at the start of 2024. Not bad for a running shoe model that debuted in 2008.
You might have thought the Dunk phase was over as Nike ratcheted up supply on colorways like the Panda to make them more accessible than ever before. Perhaps Dunk fatigue was setting in.
That seemed to be the belief when the Jarritos Dunk Low approached its early May release date. Before the sneaker even dropped, its resale price fell to the lowest level it would ever face, with size 10s reaching $324 on May 1st ahead of the May 10th release. The Jarritos Dunk hasn’t looked back since, spending time above $600 in July. Price action has been a bit choppy since, with some activity in the high $400s, but today, prices in the high $500s are still attained. General release Dunks may be more available than ever before, but the most exciting releases of the year remain both highly limited and highly coveted.
If the “Thunder” Jordan 4 was insufficient proof that unspectacular releases can still deliver appreciation, look no further than the “Chrome Metallic Silver” Jordan 6. The sneaker released in late 2022 to little hype, and its lack of initial resale momentum may have contributed to diminishing supply, as these found their way more to feet than to inventory. Only about 5,000 pairs have sold on StockX across sizes in the last 12 months, which is relatively low for this type of Jordan release. Prices in the low $200s at the end of 2022 steadily climbed into the high-$200s and low-$300s towards the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024.
That momentum was a bright spot and a rarity for initially underwhelming Jordan releases last year. But now that releases no longer unanimously sell out immediately and deliver huge premiums on resale marketplaces, the initial reaction doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. The composition of initial buyers matters, and when it’s less resale-driven, there’s likely to be less future supply in circulation.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Collectors Holdings, the parent company of PSA, has announced its acquisition of SGC, a competitor in the trading card authentication and grading market. This move brings two of the top four brands in the sector under one umbrella but intends to operate them independently with SGC's existing management team intact. SGC President Peter Steinberg emphasized that SGC will continue as an independent brand and looks forward to leveraging Collectors' resources to enhance their services and offerings, especially in modernizing and innovating within the grading space.
PSA holds a significant portion of the grading market, with recent figures showing PSA graded approximately 291,000 trading cards in a week, overshadowing SGC's 32,000. Despite SGC's smaller scale, it has a strong foothold among vintage card collectors and has been actively expanding into the modern card segment with competitive services. The acquisition by Collectors Holdings is expected to bolster SGC's capabilities and offerings, potentially speeding up service times for PSA through resource sharing and technical expertise provided by PSA to SGC.
The acquisition follows Collectors Holdings' previous strategic moves in the collectibles industry, including the purchase of auction company Goldin and the analytics platform Card Ladder. With a significant investment in technology and expansion, including opening an office in Japan, Collectors Holdings aims to enhance the products and services across its brands. SCDAILY
The Christie’s auction series featuring items from Elton John’s collection ended on a high note, bringing in a total of $20.5 million, more than double the low estimate. The auction, which included a vast array of items ranging from paintings and photographs to custom-designed clothes and fine jewelry, saw collectors vying for pieces like Banksy’s Thrower Triptych and a pair of silver leather platform boots belonging to Elton John, fetching prices far above their estimates. Among the 900 items auctioned, John’s extensive photography collection stood out, with works by Richard Avedon, Steven Meisel, and Irving Penn, underscoring the artistic and personal significance of the auctioned pieces.
Christie’s international head of photographs, Darius Himes, remarked that the auction not only showcased valuable artistic and personal items but also cemented the cultural legacy of Elton John, one of the world’s most iconic figures. The sale highlighted John's diverse taste and contributions to the arts, with significant sales like an Avedon silver print fetching $201,600. This auction series has successfully reflected the depth of John's collection and his impact on the cultural and artistic landscape, leaving a lasting legacy that goes beyond his music career. ARTNEWS
Check out our post in partnership with The Realest digging into the Elton John sales and celebrity provenance ALTAN INSIGHTS
Collectible Happenings
Heritage Auctions sold a rare, full case of 1979-80 O-Pee-Chee hockey cards, which may include an estimated two dozen Wayne Gretzky rookie cards, for a staggering $3.72 million. This sale, marking the highest for a hockey card case, notably surpassed the previous record set by an unopened case of 1986-87 Fleer Basketball, and highlighted the growing interest and value in sports memorabilia. SCDAILY
Topps Series 1 Baseball first cards were apparently released without the “First Card” designation, says Topps. Collectors who received these cards can contact Topps for them to be stamped. TWITTER
KolleXor, initiated by three childhood friends, has entered the market with a $3.5 million valuation, aiming to redefine the collecting experience by focusing initially on sports memorabilia with plans for rapid expansion. The platform intends to foster a community for collectors to showcase, trade, and connect, emphasizing accessibility and interactivity for collectors of all levels, with ambitions to extend into entertainment memorabilia. YAHOO
Despite having no physical card shops, Ireland's passion for sports and collecting paved the way for Enzo Patriarca and Jason Flynn, co-founders of Soccer Cards United, to host "The International" card show in Dublin, inspired by America's The National. The event, exceeding expectations, attracted 1,500 attendees and featured 110 tables, showcasing a mix of sports cards, memorabilia, and international vendors, solidifying Dublin's place in the global collecting community and hinting at further growth in the European market. SCDAILY
Collectors Holdings, the parent company of PSA, has acquired SGC, marking a significant consolidation within the sports collectibles grading industry. While the terms and future implications of the deal for collectors remain under wraps, the move is seen as a strategic play by Collectors Holdings to bolster its position in a competitive market, potentially in anticipation of moves by other major players like Fanatics. The acquisition could leverage SGC's loyal customer base and experienced grading team, aiming for synergies and expanded services within Collectors Holdings' growing empire, valued at over $4 billion. SCDAILY
Artnet released their “The Intelligence Report”, wherein they share deep insights and data on what is driving the global art market. ARTNET
Feel free to reach out to Keenan@Altaninsights.com for any questions/comments.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
This is the latest edition of a multi-part blog series produced in partnership with The Realest on the key events and factors shaping the music memorabilia market. The Realest is the first dedicated authentication standard and marketplace for entertainment memorabilia.
In a fusion of fashion, art, music, and memorabilia, the seminal sale of Sir Elton John’s treasure trove of iconic collectibles paid homage to the unique personality displayed by one of music’s most impactful figures.
The event, aptly titled “Goodbye Peachtree Road”, seamlessly interlaced culture and luxury, while a predictable mix of outperformance and record prices also hinted at a glaring weakness in the auction world’s ability or willingness to provide reasonable estimates for music memorabilia. Just as Sotheby’s declined to “value love” in its assessment of items from Freddie Mercury’s estate, it seems Christie’s avoided the inclusion of an “Elton John premium” in its projections.
On the opening night, art - in the form of prints, sculptures, and photographs - took center stage, as total sales across the categories reached $6.5 million. Among the evening’s standout moments was a trio of pieces that made their triumphant return to the auction block after decades in private ownership. Each of the three repeat sales tallied a premium over their last appearance at auction as photography remains a lucrative collectible category worthy of attention.
In 1991, Sotheby’s sold an original print of Dovima with Elephants, a photograph taken by Richard Avedon for a 1955 issue of Harper’s Bazaar. The famous shot sold for $19,800 and resurfaced nearly a quarter-century later as part of Elton’s collection. This time, the work hammered for $120,000, up to $151,200 with premium, to demonstrate an overall valuation gain of 663% or a modest 6.4% increase on an annualized basis. Additionally, a photo titled Grapes by Robert Mapplethorpe sold for $81,900 after Elton acquired it from Sotheby’s for $36,800 in 1996, while Four Plants by Gilbert & George flipped for $189,000, up only narrowly from $186,000 in 2005.
The most expensive item sold came by way of an iconic and recognizable Banksy. The poignant painting, Flower Thrower Triptych, sold for $1.9 million, good for the fifth most-expensive Banksy sold at auction over the past year. The sale established a record for any Banksy work related to throwing flowers, besting the previous high of $458,221 for Flower Chucker, 2023, which sold last March. Across more than 300 lots in the day and evening sale, the Banksy was the only to carry a seven-figure estimate and ultimately closed as the only item to hammer for at least $1 million.
Although collectors of works by Keith Haring might long for the late 2010s, when art by the late American pop artist reached their valuation peaks, the pair of Harings owned by Elton John demonstrated the impact of provenance. Both paintings surpassed their pre-sale estimates, while the top sale, which was an untitled work from Haring’s Three Eyes collection, sold for $756,000 and surpassed any comparable work from the early 1980s series.
As the premier sales closed, the remaining results carried less significance but still delivered new highs for more obscure artists. One new record that was established came by way of Pinnin Leaves by Radcliffe Bailey. The unique work is one of the first sold since Bailey’s passing in November of last year, and its inclusion within Elton John’s collection signifies the impact an artist can have despite a lack of prominent prices. Prior to the sale, Bailey’s auction record sat at $62,812, set via Bonham’s in 2021. With an estimate between $10,000 and $15,000, Pinnin Leaves sold for $94,500, representing an 18% increase over the previous high. Another artist, Derek Jarman, had his auction record nearly doubled as Topsey Turvey sold for $52,920 against an estimate of $8,000 - $12,000. The prior top price paid at auction for a Jarman was $26,739, paid for an oil on canvas at Christie's in 2001.
If the prices realized for Elton’s art weren’t evidence enough, the power of provenance was on full display for his luxury watch collection.
Five different watches sold for six-figures, while two, both by Cartier, reached $200K. The star of the evening sale was an 18K gold Cartier “Crash” which nearly tripled its high-end estimate of $100,000 and realized $277,200 after fees. Even setting aside the added provenance, the watch itself is rare with a total quantity of 400 in existence. The limited edition timepiece opened with an estimate between $70,000 - $100,000, a head-scratching range as comparable examples have consistently sold for at least $100,000 and have even surpassed $300,000 in recent years. The final bid plus premium totaled $277,200, below the all-time record for any 1991 Paris “Crash” but noticeably above the median sale 2022-2023 price range of $150,000 - $220,000.
As the clear favorite timepiece of the piano-playing icon, Cartier outpaced all other watch brands with $853,020 in sales. The day sale was led by a Cartier Tank that hammered for more than 7x its pre-sale estimate. Christie’s offered an estimate range between $15,000 - $25,000, a fair premium to the average Cartier Tank but strikingly conservative for the unique ruby and diamond laden watch owned by an icon.
Two watch auction records were established during the evening sale, one by way of a Cartier Normale which sold for $176,400, and the other, for a leopard-print Rolex Daytona. In a continuation of the overarching theme, the $40,000 to $60,000 estimate for the Rolex appeared light. Yes, there have been sales for the unique animal-themed model that settled below $60,000, but those have been few and far between. The retail price across authorized dealers who managed to secure one or two of the rare Daytona’s hovered in the $70,000 - $80,000 range at the time of release. The recent decline in Rolex valuations hasn’t ignored this model, as market values fell below $70,000 in late 2023. With that said, you would be hard-pressed to find an authentic example today for less than $65,000 and the timepiece presented by Christie's came with more than just the standard papers. With the added benefit of royal provenance due to its place within Sir Elton John’s collection, bidders ignored concerns of a faltering Rolex market. When the hammer fell and premium had been added, the realized price read $176,400, setting a new record for this 21st century classic.
It should go without saying, but could you really have an Elton John auction and not sell a piano? Admittedly, the supply of musical instruments was scarce, but the one Piano that did hit the block on the opening night struck a chord with collectors.
The 1992 C6 model Yamaha grand piano entered with an estimated price between $30,000 and $50,000. Yes, that valuation is actually in line with the replacement value of comparable C6 Yamaha’s without superstar provenance, but for one owned by a musician who is to the piano what Michael Jordan is to a basketball, the estimate was grossly understated. That understatement was underscored by a response from bidders that can’t be overstated. The piano auctioned for $201,600 with fees to close as the most expensive music-related item sold throughout the multi-day event.
Additional stage-worn and stage-used costumes and props included a pair of silver leather platform boots that carried an eyebrow-raising and inviting $5,000 to $10,000 estimate but sold for a reasonable $94,500. Various other costumes and apparel items combined for $212,310 in volume across the Evening and Day sales.
Who needs a writer to pen auction lot descriptions when you have an essay from Elton John himself?
That was the case for the 1990 Bentley Continental, purchased by Elton shortly after the British-born classic rolled off the assembly line. The two door convertible, appearing at auction for the first time, was given an estimate between $25,000 and $35,000, which fell well short of the market value provided by collectible car experts. With the added bonus of carrying less than 30,000 miles of wear, the market value for a ‘90 Bentley Continental per the insurance company Hagerty is somewhere in the $50,000 - $70,000 range, double the auction estimate.
While Christie's abstinence from accounting for “the Elton premium” was consistent, even the Hagerty market value was miles away from what bidders were ultimately willing to pay. The auction house reported a flurry of two-dozen bidders, and the heated action drove the price to a new record of $441,000. The hammer plus premium exceeded the pre-sale estimate by more than 12x and surpassed the price paid for any 1990s Bentley at auction by almost double. The prior high watermark was for a 1994 Continental IV, which sold in 2022 for $296,500, an impressive tally, but well below the price paid for one that came alongside a short essay, penned by the superstar owner himself. In the letter, Elton emphasized his astonishment with the beauty and detailing of the car, in addition to its unmistakable smell.
In an active collectibles market where there’s constantly something new and shiny to catch our attention, the power of provenance remains as influential and important as ever.
The Numbers Behind the Elton John Collection
Top 3 Sales
Total Sales by Event
Photo Credit: Christie's.
Cover Photo: LA Times
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
This article was featured in our newsletter, Alts & Ends. Click here to subscribe for free and receive the best collectible market insights straight to your inbox on a weekly basis!
The O-Pee-Chee Hockey case may have been the most expensive item of the weekend, but it wasn't the largest, not by a longshot. That honor goes to the 9x8' Legends of Basketball painting by LeRoy Neiman, a work so large that photos required the inclusion of a Heritage employee standing next to it for scale. Seventy-two square feet of brightly colored sporting immortality.
As sports card and memorabilia prices consistently infringe on territory previously reserved for fine art, the intersection of the two categories demands further exploration. Sports art, with select exceptions, has long failed to gain acclaim and appreciation in the high-brow world of fine art, fielding a reputation more kitschy than museum-worthy. On the flip side, while works of sports art have their niche sports-collecting audience, they aren't among the most coveted sports collectibles. That leaves art in a middle ground of sorts, looked down upon by the fine art world and - perhaps partially because of the lack of validation there - not held in the highest esteem in the world of sports collectibles.
The select exceptions that have gained reputability in fine art circles are rare but fascinating nonetheless. Some of those exceptions come in the form of portraits by Andy Warhol, and given his knack for exploring our cultural icons in greater depth, renowned athletes serve as fitting subjects. Original paintings and screenprints alike have experienced appreciation in the 2000s, albeit mixed in magnitude. Perhaps most notable is the $18.1 million sale of an original Muhammad Ali portrait in 2021 at Christie's.
Other exceptions have only recently gained notoriety, as works from the likes of Ernie Barnes - a former football player in his own right - rise in reputation. Others still are cherished for their broader cultural symbolism, like L.S. Lowry's £8 million Going to the Match, which is representative of a timeless way of life in northern England. But again, these are more the exception than the rule.
Within the friendly confines of sports-specific auction events, the occasional work of original sports card art aside, one artist reigns supreme above the rest: LeRoy Neiman. Neiman boasts a credential no other artist can touch. At the end of Rocky III, when Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed engage in a friendly sparring match, and the frame freezes as they throw their initial punches, the scene transforms into a colorful expressionist painting. The artist? You guessed it. LeRoy Neiman. The artist also made cameos as a ring announcer in Rocky III, Rocky IV, Rocky V, and Rocky Balboa. The clout!
That bright and colorful expressionist aesthetic is a mainstay in Neiman works, depicting our sporting heroes in action in a way that immortalizes them in glory. His work was consistent, commissioned fodder for programs and magazine covers, further heightening its notoriety. Those household names of the traditional art world aside, Neiman stands alone in the ability of his works to frequently capture six-figure prices at auction, rising above the clutter of less regarded sports works and artists that struggle to break out of low five-figure territory.
But here's the problem.
Neiman's market, at least the high-end of it, hasn't moved materially in the past 10 years. Until this past weekend, Neiman's top auction sale (not even of a sports scene) of $167,400 dated to 2012, narrowly tailed by a $167,300 result achieved by a Babe Ruth painting at Heritage in 2013. During the early-to-mid 2010s, a flurry of high-end activity shaped Neiman's market, but that momentum seemingly stalled. In recent years, sales have failed to test those record levels, though that's likely due in part to a lack of desirable consignment, which nods favorably to a sticky collecting base. Where there have been repeat sales, mostly in a lower tier of his market, results have been mixed or often underwhelming.
But the stagnation paused last weekend when the 72-square-foot Legends of Basketball painting sold for $186,000, establishing a new Neiman auction record.
The massive work was the basis for the 1977 All-Star Game program cover, and its size is befitting of the icons it features, Wilt, Russell, Kareem, Willis Reed, and Julius Erving among them. The gargantuan work and its recent sale could provide a spark to a market in need of one.
Should the Venn diagram of those who collect art and those who collect sports memorabilia grow larger as the prices and venues of sale look increasingly similar, one could see how new demand might surface for unique sports art. Nobody boasts a better-positioned catalog for that increasing overlap than Neiman.
And if movie memorabilia should continue to ascend alongside those categories, then ring the bell, because the fight for the original Rocky III painting will be on.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Photo: GetTrumpSneakers.com
This article was featured in our newsletter, Alts & Ends. Click here to subscribe for free and receive the best collectible market insights straight to your inbox on a weekly basis!
Trading cards, NFTs, and sneakers have all cooled over the last year, but those markets still burn hot for one subject. Former President Donald Trump.
Don't worry or stop reading, Altan's not going to get all political. "Stick to collectibles, nerds!" Fear not, that's exactly what we'll do. However, it seems the former president is sticking with collectibles, buoyed by successful sales.
Trump's attendance at Philadelphia's SneakerCon was well publicized this weekend. Fittingly, the Trump team marked the occasion with a limited-edition sneaker drop, introducing the Never Surrender High-Top Sneaker. The gold shoes, detailed with the red, white, and blue of the American flag and emblazoned with a large "T," were sold for $399 and limited to pre-orders for just 1,000 pairs. At the event, a bidder paid $9,000 for an autographed pair, while the website inventory sold out quickly, generating $399,000 in revenue and far more value in earned media.
The site disclaimer read: "Trump Sneakers & Fragrances are intended for individual enjoyment and as a collectible and not for investment purposes." The early returns from eBay suggest that some sellers disregarded that disclaimer.
At the time of writing, eBay data reflects 75 sales of the Never Surrender High-Top, with all but three of those sales eclipsing $1,000. The high watermark is $6,999, and 14 sales have cleared $5,000. Now, a 1,000-pair release qualifies as extremely limited, but acknowledging that, nobody is putting up those kinds of high-flying prices in new sneaker releases right now. Not Travis Scott, certainly not Ye, and not even Michael Jordan, who once famously said "Republicans buy sneakers, too."
Bear in mind: these eBay sales are for pre-orders, not yet for ready-to-ship products. The buzz could fade, but the initial response remains staggering.
It's the first sneaker release from a former president, though it's not the first piece of presidential sneaker memorabilia. In February of 2021, Sotheby's was set to sell a pair of Barack Obama Player Exclusive Nike Hyperdunks for a Buy-It-Now price of $25,000. The sneaker features the Presidential Seal on the tongue and "44" embroidered on the side. It was one of only two pairs produced, with the other believed to be in former President Obama's possession. Ultimately, the consignor withdrew the sneakers before they could sell, though it was clear that the decision was not made for lack of demand.
Given the secondary market action in the Trump sneakers, one could make the argument they were underpriced at $399, already a lofty retail price for a sneaker. The quick sell-through is not a surprise given the strength of other Trump collectible sales. For instance, even amid a tanking market for NFTs, digital Trump trading cards have enjoyed a hospitable audience.
The first two series, depicting the former president in various patriotic scenes, both sold out in less than a day, generating $4.4 and $4.6 million in revenue respectively. Trump licensed his image to a company called CIC Digital LLC for the NFT products and is believed to receive royalties on the sales.
While the floor price of Series 2 is vastly lower than Series 1's, both editions have proven resilient on the secondary market. Since its December 2022 release, after some early choppiness, Series 1 has mostly seen floor price growth. Today, the floor price sits at $725, well above October troughs below $150. If you were to value all 45,000 cards at the floor price, then the series has a total market cap of $32.6 million.
The third series, otherwise known as The Mugshot Edition, has crossed more overtly into the worlds of sports cards and memorabilia, playing to the popularity of memorabilia swatches and a suddenly significant moment in American history. Customers who purchase 47 or more Mugshot Edition NFT cards will receive a physical card (limited to 2,024) featuring a swatch of the suit worn by Trump in his infamous mugshot photo.
At $99 a pop, a purchase of 47 cards equates to a total spend of $4,653. That's a lot of money, and those unfamiliar with the world of trading cards will find it outrageous, as will some who are familiar. But it isn't egregiously out of line with what some Flawless or National Treasures patch cards fetch at auction for players who aren't even among the sport's elite. Of course, to many inside and outside the Hobby, those prices remain egregious.
A 100 NFT purchase would be rewarded with an autographed card (limited to 225) containing swatches from both the infamous suit and the accompanying necktie. That purchase amounts to $9,000.The suit came directly from Trump, and MEARS - well-known in the sports memorabilia space - authenticated it. Onlookers will no doubt be dubious, but the third-party authentication offers more credibility than some patch cards in sports, particularly those whose disclaimers on the back make effectively no assurances as to when or if a player came into contact with the associated garment. So far, OpenSea reflects more than 50,000 items in circulation from the Mugshot Edition, suggesting that some customers have pursued the offer.
The physical Trump cards have yet to reach secondary markets. In the interim, we wonder how many customers are uninterested in the speculative aspect and wish to retain the card purely from a collector's perspective for the long term. And how does that impact supply and prices?
In any case, the repeated collectible market success of Trump-related offerings is further evidence of the buying power of large, loyal, and passionate fanbases. With the attention of such a fanbase captured, the type of collectible actually matters little (the early success of the NFT trading cards is proof) so long as it tells a story that authentically resonates with the audience it seeks to serve.
Will Biden counter with some kicks of his own? Or is a Stanley Tumbler collaboration the more contemporary move? Either way, it seems the old, reliable campaign buttons and bumper stickers have been left in the rear-view. Despite the much-discussed age of the candidates, these aren't your grandfather's campaign keepsakes.
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
