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Earlier this month, Christie’s provided a hot talking point for the middle of summer, announcing its auction results for the first half of 2024. To the surprise of few, auction sales were down markedly from the first half of 2023, falling 22% to a total of $2.1 billion. And that 2023 first half total was already down 23% from 2022; over two years, sales have fallen a precipitous 40%.
The market softness is by no means a Christie’s anomaly, as colder conditions have tightened their bruising grip on a wide spectrum of houses. Barring an unforeseen and unlikely second half turnaround on par with Bobby Boucher showing up at half time and the Mud Dogs winning the Bourbon Bowl, the art market is likely to close 2024 with its second consecutive annual decline in auction sales. These are bleak times in the art world, but they are not without precedent. In fact, per historic Art Market reports from Arts Economics, auctions sales declined consecutively in 2008 and 2009, 2015 and 2016, and 2019 and 2020.
Good news: In each instance, there was no third year of decline, and the market responded with a spirited recovery.
In fact, across those three instances, the average third year increase in art market auction sales amounted to 43%. Even better, in the two years following consecutive years of auction sales decline, the market averaged a 52% total increase from the trough.
2008/2009 Drawdown & Subsequent Recovery
2007: $32.9B
2008: $28.0B (-15%)
2009: $18.3B (-35%, -44% from 2007)
2010: $27.6B (+51%)
2011: $32.4B (+17%, +77% from 2009)
2015/2016 Drawdown & Subsequent Recovery
2014: $32.7B
2015: $29.9B (-9%)
2016: $22.5B (-25%, -32% from 2014)
2017: $28.4B (+26%)
2018: $29.1B (+2%, +29% from 2016)
2019/2020 Drawdown & Subsequent Recovery
2018: $29.3B
2019: $25.2B (-14%)
2020: $17.9B (-29%, -39% from 2018)
2021: $27.1B (+51%)
2022: $26.8B (-1%, +50% from 2020)
Note: dollar figures represent global public auction sales of fine and decorative art and antiques.
The takeaway: significant drawdowns in activity over multiple years are not at all uncommon in the art world, and they often follow a period of significant trophy sales, carefully managed auctions, and heavy speculation on young artists (all are familiar recent factors). But the art market frequently bounces back with vigor after a reset.
A word of caution. While the market did recover, it never again reached the peak in auction sales achieved in 2007. It came close in 2011 and even closer in 2014 but couldn't eclipse that mark. Since 2014, the market hasn't crossed $30 billion in public auction sales. Part of this is due to a mix shift by auction houses towards private sales, which now total close to $4 billion annually.
It’s not all bad. Christie’s reported an 87% sell-through rate, which remains a healthy figure on par with last year (albeit under tightly managed conditions), as well as a 111% index of hammer price to the low estimate, better than last year’s 107%. Expectations have adjusted, and the lots that are selling are largely meeting those new, reduced expectations.
Plus, outside of Christie’s, Heritage Auctions - which boasts a harder lean away from art and into cultural collectibles - reported the highest mid-year total in its history, hitting $925 million in sales, a figure which would have been a full year record as recently as four years ago.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Photo: Fanatics Collect
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Not all PSA 10s are created equal.
That’s a widely held belief in the sports card market that adds to an already overflowing pot of market nuance. While grading adds a remarkable amount of structure and uniformity to a market sorely in need of it, it’s not a perfect science that puts all cards of the same grade on equal footing. Explaining the gaps in market value between a PSA 10 and a PSA 9 to a Hobby outsider already draws looks of incredulity, so imagine explaining that - well, actually - some PSA 9s are vastly more valuable than other PSA 9s because of largely unquantifiable factors like eye appeal.
That’s a lecture sure to be met with an open-mouth, glazed-eye gaze so stupefied that it will make even the lecturer question the merit of what they're saying.
Whether formally or informally, market participants make judgments on the caliber of a card within its graded population, and those judgments can often impact the value at which the card sells relative to comps at auction. Think of it this way: grading companies have done probably ~90% of the heavy lifting by authenticating and assigning their numeric grades, but there are elements of a card’s appeal that fall outside the confines of the grading evaluation. Within that 10% beckons opportunity.
Heritage is the latest house to recognize that opportunity, introducing its Best-In-Class service last week not just for cards, but for the full spectrum of sports memorabilia. In cards, the Best-In-Class evaluation compares the card to other versions of the card in the same grade to determine if it is among the very most visually appealing examples in the grade - meaning there can be Best-In-Class PSA 1s just as there are Best–In-Class PSA 10s.
The objective is simple: unlock value at auction for those cards deemed to be deserving of a premium price relative to peers.
As it’s the auction house itself providing these designations, participants will take them with a grain of salt. Houses are incentivized to achieve high prices, but they should also recognize that the designations will ultimately be worthless if they're overused or seen to be lacking in credibility. In a hobby of astute market observers that are rarely shy with criticisms, credibility is everything.
Notably, the Heritage announcement coincided with last week’s PWCC rebrand to Fanatics Collect, including the rebranding of PWCC’s own eye appeal designations, which have been in effect since 2018. PWCC - now Fanatics - assigns designations for Average (top 30% relative to peers), Exceptional (top 15%), and Superior (top 5%) cards. Since May of 2021, sales of cards with eye appeal designations on the PWCC platform total over $35 million.
One benefit of offering these designations? It makes the cards stickier to the auction house.
Competing houses generally won’t be keen to emphatically advertise the might of another house’s designations, heightening the consignor's inclination to keep the card within the same ecosystem the next time it comes up for sale. However, that’s not to say cross-house sales never happen. At the end of June, Goldin sold a PSA 10 Fleer Jordan rookie with a PWCC-A designation. The lot title artfully dodged the mention of a competitor: “1986-87 Fleer #57 Michael Jordan Rookie Card - PSA GEM MT 10 - Top 30% Eye Appeal.” Goldin has sold just two other cards this year with mention of “Eye Appeal” in the lot title.
But do the designations actually add value when sold at the house that provided them?
Isolating the contribution of the designation is a challenge, particularly in cards that trade infrequently in markets that have moved significantly in both directions over the last four years. Moreover, to what degree can you really isolate the impact of the designation from the premium a bidder might pay without it, just on their own cognizance of the card’s appeal?
We can, however, look at a larger swath of data to begin to consider the impact, comparing those cards that sold with designations in PWCC’s Premier Auctions over the last four years (about 800 cards) to those that sold with no designation. Cards with appeal designations generated a significant premium in average price in 2021 and 2022, but that chasm tightened in 2023 and 2024 to date.
Evaluating the results on an event-by-event basis enables greater isolation of market conditions, but the sample sizes get much smaller in doing so, allowing for some outlier results to have significant impact. Still, in each Premier Auction event over the last four years, cards with designations generated an average premium of 43% over the auction lots without one. In only about a third of events, lots with a designation sold at an average price that was lower than the field.
Then, there’s the anecdotal evidence. Perhaps most notable is the $840,000 sale of a PWCC-S 1986 Fleer Jordan card in July of 2021. That sale, over $500,000 greater than the sales immediately preceding and succeeding it, raised many skepticism-laden eyebrows. But extremes aside, there are myriad examples of a card with an eye appeal designation raising conspicuous bumps on an otherwise languid price chart:
Yet, there are plenty of instances of sales that are decidedly ho-hum. An endless number of variables comprise the result achieved in any one auction sale, but secondary market card purveyors appear to be resolute in their commitment to add another ingredient to the cauldron.
Appeal designations aren’t limited to auction house providers. Mike Baker Authentication has developed a presence in the hobby, particularly at PWCC but also at Goldin. MBA’s diamond-based designations evaluate similar criteria, ultimately seeking to clarify the hierarchy of cards that rest within any given numerical grade. Still, we await the arrival of the eager entrepreneur, currently rubbing his hands together and readying a pitch for another layer of evaluation based on the idea that not all Heritage Best-In-Class or Fanatics-Superior or MBA Gold Diamond cards are equal in quality. Best-of-the-Best Authentication. If your card is of sufficient appeal, they’ll entomb it in a piece of the Aggro Crag from Nickelodeon GUTS.
Move over, “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.” We’re headed right for “Six Degrees of Authentication.”
The Heritage Best-In-Class service will not focus exclusively on cards, offering evaluation of bats, photos, and jerseys. In some cases, the evaluation will consider the historical significance of the item, a quality that in the past was only informally marketed and passively understood. As with everything in the sports collectibles world: nuance is everything. Understanding that, Heritage will publish analysis accompanying its Best-In-Class designations.
Perhaps the best solution to the evaluation arms race is a tribal council of hobby voices trusted to deliver an impartial deliberation on the merits of a particular item. There’s a free YouTube series pitch sure to garner thousands of views. We give that idea a PWCC-A. In the top 30%, sure, but certainly not in Exceptional or Superior territory.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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Despite featuring many of the sporting world’s most beloved, global superstars over the past two decades, tennis memorabilia is often buried in the catalog of large, multi-sport auction events. This problem was quickly remedied in golf to great success by Golden Age and The Golf Auction, which have cultivated engaged audiences of golf memorabilia enthusiasts. The right lots find the right collectors, with focused storytelling parsing the idiosyncrasies and special characteristics of each item and moment. Now, Prestige Memorabilia’s Tennis Auction is seeking to do the same for the sport of tennis.
The emerging house held its first event in the fall of 2023, and in its second event at the start of 2024, made waves with the $118,206 sale of Rafael Nadal’s match-used racket from the 2007 French Open Final. This weekend, the 2024 Legends Auction closes, featuring a memorable assortment of tennis memorabilia from some of the sport’s most celebrated stars, both young and old. In partnership with The Tennis Auction, let's preview the action.
Throughout the 2000s, Roger Federer staked his claim on grass and hardcourts like no player had before. Between 2005 and 2014, Federer won a combined 12 Australian Open, US Open, and Wimbledon titles. That historic run included a stretch where Federer took home the championship across all three of those storied majors in both 2006 and 2007.
Despite an illustrious career that positioned Federer at the top of the tennis world, the clay courts of the French Open remained his Achilles heel. Between 2006-2008, Federer made the French Open final three straight times, falling to Rafael Nadal each time. In 2009, Nadal was upset in the fourth round and Federer took advantage to finally secure a French Open. One might think that this victory would spur Federer to the type of success in the French Open that he had found at the other three majors.
It did not. As a matter of fact, Federer only appeared in one more French Open final after that 2009 victory. That final came in 2011, now well over a decade ago, which makes memorabilia from the days of Federer’s French Open success some of the most rare and valuable on the market today.
In 2020, a racket used by Federer in that 2011 French Open final appeared at auction, and the perfect storm of rarity and tennis history combined to deliver a new tennis racket record…at least for a men’s player. In 2017, Bonhams sold the racket used by Billie Jean King in the “Battle of the Sexes” match for $125,000, but no racket used by a men’s tennis player had ever sold for more than $50,000. That changed when the hammer fell on the French Open Federer racket which closed for $55,350.
Another racket from that final returned to auction two years later, this one with a photomatch letter (but no graphics) from Resolution, selling for $50,400. Now, we fast forward two years to this weekend to find out how the market has evolved with another racket from that final, this one accompanied by a photomatch letter and photomatch graphics from Resolution. Given the existence of two other rackets from the match, the heightened authenticity is of paramount importance.
For the better part of two decades, Rafael Nadal has been one of the most accomplished and popular athletes in Nike’s stable. With that kind of tenure, an athlete develops an impressive resume. One way Nike celebrates greatness - usually of a specific sneaker model - is with a “What The” colorway. “What The” sneakers typically mix bits and pieces from popular colorways of a model., creating a Frankenstein shoe of sorts that pays homage to predecessors.
For one of its favorite athletes, Nike created a special “What The Rafa" sneaker for Rafael Nadal, using the Nike Air Zoom Cage 3 Glove as the canvas. The shoes combined an element from the sneakers worn in each of Nadal’s 11 French Open titles to that point. The shoes dropped at retail in 2019 in highly limited quantities, quickly selling out. The retail price was $140, but in recent months, pairs have sold for more than $300 on StockX, with one pair even reaching $952.
Those pairs, though, lacked one essential ingredient: the clay stains from the grounds of Roland Garros. Offered this weekend is a match-worn pair of the “What The Rafas,” used by the Spanish maestro himself to slide his way through points in the 2019 French Open with precision and generational expertise. Nadal would ultimately win the tournament, earning his 12th title. The match-worn sneakers have provenance to Nadal’s foundation and a possible photomatch to his third round match with David Goffin. The “What The Rafas” matched to the fourth round and quarterfinal matches sold alongside a racket (unknown match, MEARS LOA) from the tournament for $79,200 in June of 2022. A photomatched pair of sneakers from the quarterfinal of a 2014 French Open Run, which also ended with a title, sold twice in 2023 for $13,200 and $15,240. The winning bidder this weekend will be hoping to bolster the case for this pair with a conclusive match, as the colorway is likely the most notable in Nadal’s career.
With the iconic era of Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal drawing to a close, tennis has been in search of its next wave of superstar talent.
Enter Carlos Alcaraz.
The 21-year-old star from Spain has already made the ascent from prodigy to champion, with a pair of majors secured in the trophy case. In 2022, Alcaraz defeated another rising star in Casper Ruud for the US Open title. The win not only earned Alcaraz his first Grand Slam and a claim as the youngest men’s US Open champion in more than 30 years, but also made him the youngest player to achieve an ATP #1 ranking.
The historic US Open victory cemented Alcaraz’s position at the top of a sport undergoing significant transition. Between the 2004 and 2024 Australian Opens, 80 Grand Slam tournaments were played. Remarkably, in 65 of those events, or 82% of the time, the winner was either Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, or Rafael Nadal. The dominance displayed by these three legends will be nearly impossible to replicate over the next 20 years. However, the upcoming generation of talent now has a prime opportunity to shine as the legends of the 2000s and 2010s approach retirement.
With the potential catalyst of a historic career mixed with an already impressive array of victories, collectors and speculators alike are flocking into the Alcaraz memorabilia market. He has already become a fixture within the luxury sports industry, having penned partnerships with Louis Vuitton and Calvin Klein while wearing a Rolex during trophy presentations. There have been match-used Alcaraz rackets that are not photomatched which have sold for more than $10,000. Earlier this year, a signed tennis ball from the 2022 US Open with unconfirmed match-use sold for $1,524, exceeding its estimate by more than 50%. The most expensive item from the US Open tournament to sell at auction thus far were the sneakers worn by Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. The Nike Vapor Pros, signed and accompanied by a photomatch, sold for $15,120 in February 2023.
Alcaraz has even reinvigorated a tennis card market that sat dormant throughout the 2010s. In 2022, NetPro announced a card licensing deal with Alcaraz after the company had taken a nearly 20-year hiatus. The cards sold out within days of their release with various additions selling for hundreds of dollars across secondary markets.
If the career of Carlos Alcaraz remains on its current trajectory, one could hypothesize that valuations for apparel and equipment from the 2022 US Open will see ongoing appreciation. Featured in this tennis-centric auction is a Nike wristband worn by Alcaraz during that historic final. The cotton, white band features wear and prominently displays a black Nike swoosh. It’s paired with an LOA from Mears and is also backed by an image of the lucky fan who caught the wristband with Alcaraz visible in the background.
The United States hasn’t won a Davis Cup since 2007. Perhaps that’s why the global event is not as popular stateside in recent years as it is elsewhere. The year following that last U.S. triumph, Spain reclaimed the title, a feat which they would repeat in 2009 as well, that time in front of a home crowd in Barcelona. In 2009, Spain dismantled Croatia 5-0 in the final, thanks in part to a straight-set singles victory for Rafael Nadal against Tomas Berdych.
In that match, Nadal wore a custom Nike ensemble in Spanish colors, including his Courtballistec 1.3 sneakers, which were photomatched to the occasion by Resolution. Along with those sneakers, his Nike polo shirt and wristbands are set for auction this weekend. While the Davis Cup has been around since 1900, the auction block hasn’t seen a heavy volume of match-worn material. The results for lesser material are indicative of the appetite for relics of international competition relating to global icons.
For instance, a match-issued Roger Federer Switzerland polo sold for $2,820 last year. That style was worn for the 2012 Olympics and 2014 Davis Cup, a silver medal and champion performance respectively. A Nadal warm-up jacket, backpack, and signed wristbands from the 2011 Davis Cup sold for $2,760 in 2022. But these aren’t items worn during competitive play, much less a finals match.
It’s difficult to draw parallels between memorabilia from this event, which is more unique, and memorabilia from individual tournament efforts. Still, photomatched sneakers from even lesser individual events frequently find mid-four-figure territory, with more momentous occasions pushing into five figures as highlighted above.
Novak Djokovic has been so dominant for so long that sometimes his losses are more notable than his wins. No loss was more jaw-dropping in the tennis world than a Round of 32 loss to Luca Nardi at Indian Wells this year. Though it might be surprising - even at this advanced age - Djokovic is human, not an unshakeable tennis robot.
From that shock loss came these Djokovic match-worn and signed sneakers, with Djokovic photographed executing his signature. Relative to those of his chief rivals, the market for Djokovic-worn memorabilia is underdeveloped. Key rackets that have surfaced at auction have achieved similar heights in results, but results for match-worn sneakers and apparel are quite limited. We’ve identified just one other auction sale of a pair of Djokovic-worn sneakers: a pair of signed Adidas sneakers from 2015 Wimbledon sold earlier this year for $11,590 after 20 bids. The sneakers were authenticated by MEARS for use but not related with any particular match. The result was perhaps an indication of hopes it was final-used against Federer but potentially also recognition of limited chances to buy Djokovic material.
In case a reminder was necessary: Djokovic stands two ahead of Nadal on the all-time Slam leaderboard, a gap more likely to expand than contract in the coming years.
Before there was Fed, The Joker, or Rafa, there was “Pistol Pete”.
When Pete Sampras retired in 2002, he did so on a high note, defeating rival and fellow American Andre Agassi in the US Open Championship to claim his 14th major. That illustrious career placed Sampras at the top, besting Roy Emerson’s 12 majors which had stood as the record for nearly three decades.
For the modern tennis fan who has been privileged with the age of Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal, it’s easy to overlook 14 majors when it now takes 20 to break into the top three. For a true fan who can appreciate success in relevance to its era, Pete Sampras epitomized a golden age in American tennis, one that the country has been trying to recapture over the last 20 years. Unlike many pros today whose game can often be defined by one or two characteristics, Sampras played with an all-around skill set, consistently pulling from a unique bag of tricks that made him a headache to play and a joy to watch. The powerful and aggressive style of play Sampras displayed throughout the early 1990s would give way in the 2000s to a game that emphasized sophistication and precision. While Sampras found success across all four majors, winning all at least twice with the exception of the French Open, it was the grass at Wimbledon where he truly dominated. Between 1993-2000, Sampras won seven Wimbledon titles in eight years. That historic run included a stretch between 1997-2000 that saw him secure a 31-match win streak at the storied event.
Wilson Pro Staff rackets were the tool-of-choice for Sampras, who made various adjustments to his swing throughout his career but remained loyal to the brand for nearly 20 years. Even before the tennis racket market had matured in both values and volumes to where it stands today, rackets used by Pete Sampras were selling for thousands of dollars.
In 2013, a Sampras racket dated to the late 1990s sold for $7,680 and stands as his most expensive equipment ever sold at auction. Less than one year later, a signed racket used by Sampras in a 2012 match sold for $5,294. The racket showcased by The Tennis Auction is accompanied by a letter from Jeff Schwartz, Sampras’ agent, with a note that emphasizes the limited supply. In the letter, Jeff writes “Not many people have Pete’s racquet as he only goes thru about 12-15 per year.” Sampras was known for using the same racket throughout the entirety of a match and even playing with a single racket across multiple tournaments. In today’s game, where players carry up to 10 rackets and some stars are known for using many of them throughout the course of a single match, the limited supply of strings used by Sampras could prove advantageous as the sport continues to become more mainstream within the collectibles market.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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This is the latest edition of a multi-part blog series produced in partnership with The Realest on the key events and factors shaping the music memorabilia market. The Realest is the first dedicated authentication standard and marketplace for entertainment memorabilia.
Is a Snoop Dogg-smoked blunt the cannabis equivalent of a Babe Ruth-used baseball bat?
We may need to wait a few decades to find out if it can live up to that lofty analogy, but the journey begins next month.
Let’s take a step back for a second.
In both our report on the Music Memorabilia Market and in recent posts in this blog series, we’ve highlighted a key market shortcoming: the market for the memorabilia of living artists is relatively limited.
Several factors contribute to that shortcoming. First, to date, most of the top tier memorabilia that comes to market comes either from estate sales when an artist passes or from single-owner charity sales. The latter has been more limited than the former. Additionally, memorabilia coming from other sources often suffers from limitations of authenticity, relying predominantly on some combination of LOAs and provenance.
The first factor results mostly from a lack of awareness or a lack of regard for the opportunity presented to artists by their personal inventory of memorabilia. That opportunity, however, has become extremely difficult to ignore with the rise of collectible markets and the frequency with which auction sales make headlines in today’s environment. Even the most passive artist would take notice if they saw a guitar of theirs sell for six-figures or a lyric sheet for five, all while participating in none of the proceeds.
Always on the cutting edge, Snoop Dogg has recognized that opportunity, partnering with the Realest to bring a selection of his memorabilia to the auction block. His pursuit of the memorabilia revenue stream provides an important cosign on two levels: 1) he’s an icon and legend of the hip-hop and broader music & entertainment space, and 2) his successes in business and investment pursuits are well documented. Additionally, his visible promotion of the event (to an Instagram following of 87 million people) creates a meaningful distinction from all those auction lots that boast provenance to an artist without the artist acknowledging the item or event’s existence.
In true Snoop Dogg fashion, the auction event is fittingly labeled “Tha Shiznit.” Before diving deeper into its contents, let’s examine the existing landscape.
Are there other examples of artists directing their own memorabilia sales?
An artist’s participation in memorabilia sales is not a totally novel concept, even if the concept seems to be wildly underused. Some of the larger events readily endorsed by a living artist in the past have been launched with charitable intent. For instance, earlier last year, Mark Knopfler’s guitar collection sold at Christie’s, grossing nearly £9 million in total sales, including 23 six-figure results. The Dire Straits frontman auctioned the collection with no less than 25% of the hammer price received to be split among three charitable organizations.
Examples like the Knopfler Collection are more indicative of the legacy market.
For a more contemporary example, we can look to one of Snoop’s contemporaries. Pharrell auctioned off a selection of his memorabilia in conjunction with the launch of his auction platform, JOOPITER, with some eye opening results for items, including some that found their way into Drake’s hands. In that case, provenance provided strong credibility for the initial sale, particularly since it came from the platform founder’s collection. However, that provenance may become murky after the initial sale; items from other consignors on the platform are said to be both appraised and authenticated, though the method of authentication is unclear.
Importantly, Snoop Dogg’s partnership with The Realest addresses both factors contributing to a shortcoming in the modern music memorabilia market. As we addressed, he has recognized the opportunity, but he’s also bringing memorabilia to market in a way that ensures authenticity at the initial sale and afterwards, building credibility for those items longer term. All items have been through the Realest’s TruEst witness-based authentication process, in which the artist’s ownership of the items is guaranteed by the company, with holographic technology used for unique identification on an ongoing basis.
What have been some of the most expensive Snoop sales? How were they authenticated?
When compared to other top-selling musicians and rappers, the collectible market for Snoop Dogg is still in its infancy. In 2021, Julien’s sold a painting that was composed and signed by the man himself for $96,000. To provide further context in just how underdeveloped the Snoop Dogg market was, that painting entered the charity auction with a pre-sale estimate between $1,500 - $3,000. While charity auctions carry an asterisk for valuation purposes, the sale still delivered a breakout result for an underappreciated market.
In 2011, one decade before the artwork sale, Julien’s sold the ensemble worn by Snoop Dogg in the music video for “Sensual Seduction” for $3,520 against an estimate of $500 - $700. Today, that video-worn costume would appraise at a significant multiple over the 2011 sale price, with the auction hosted by the Realest proving the evidence. Take for example the outfit worn by Snoop at Wrestlemania in 2023. The velour suit isn’t tied to a music-related event and wasn’t worn in a music video but is still nearing $2,000 through more than 35 bids.
If there’s one commonality across the current leaderboard of Snoop Dogg sales, it’s the standard of authenticity. The painting came directly from Snoop Dogg while the suit came with a letter of authenticity from the GRAMMY Foundation, where it has previously sold in a charity auction. Provenance and LOAs have ruled, as has often been the case in the entertainment market.
There is a clear appetite for Snoop memorabilia but the supply has been virtually non-existent. Earlier this year, Goldin sold a signed and framed album display of Snoop’s debut studio album Doggystyle for $1,037. That particular display attracted 27 bids, while an IGS-graded cassette tape from the 1993 album sold in 2023 for $2,160. Snoop Dogg’s card from the 1995 Smash Hits Stickers set is viewed as his premier trading card, with values and volume both seeing a surge in recent years. Between September 2021 and October 2023, the PSA-graded population of Snoop cards from the ‘95 set increased from 1 to 256. The increase in supply has led to a pullback in prices, which peaked above $1,000 in between 2021-2022 but have since retreated below $750 for mint copies.
While the Snoop market has been limited to date, the same could be said for nearly all living musicians. One trend that we highlighted in our inaugural Music Memorabilia Report was the importance of single-owner sales direct from the artist or their estate. Whether it was Prince or Freddie Mercury, top prices have continuously come from events dedicated to a specific artist. This format of sale is rarely used for a living artist which makes Tha Shiznit a unique case study and true barometer for one of the most marketable and recognized names in pop culture today.
What kind of items are in the Realest Snoop Dogg auction? What are some of the sale prices achieved for similar items?
Phase 1 of Tha Shiznit closes this Sunday. Both that phase and the rest of the auction are replete with a wide variety of Snoop Dogg items, ranging from Wrestlemania-worn outfits to setlists to a Snoop-smoked blunt (yes, really). The breadth of offerings is representative of Snoop’s As you can imagine, based on the limited nature of the Snoop market to date, most of these items don’t really have comps or precedents, especially the blunt. The comparables that do exist provide evidence that an active marketplace backed by solid provenance and authentication can deliver premiums.
The Snoop Dogg Funko Pop! #301 provides a telling example. The first edition Funko has already garnered more than 30 bids, pushing the price to $556. This particular Funko Pop! came directly from Funko and was the first to come off the production line. The vinyl figurine was the first to be signed by Snoop, and it now resides in protective plastic with the backing of TRuEST Authentication. For comparison, the most expensive sealed Funko Pop! from that same #301 edition to sell this year realized $282 via eBay in March. As we emphasized with the importance of direct sourcing from an artist, the storytelling and provenance of an item carries significant weight and can heavily influence prices.
Art, culture, and music met on a collision course as the acclaimed artist KAWS designed a reimagined picture disc with album art in celebration of Interscope Records’ 30th anniversary. The values found across the various print runs vary dramatically depending on the appearance of Snoop’s penmanship – and what exactly he penned.
The mass-produced unsigned version can be found across a range of marketplaces for less than $50. There is a limited-edition version that was signed by Snoop with only 100 copies in existence. Those signed versions have fetched upwards of $200 and can be found on eBay, where they often transact between $125 and $150. Occasionally, the signed copies also appear in modern art galleries, both on display and for purchase. Finally, there’s the “Snoop Doggy Dogg” special edition. This unique run includes just ten album covers and discs, all signed “Snoop Doggy Dogg.” The “Doggy Dogg” signature era dates through the early-to-mid 1990s before shifting to the simplified moniker “Snoop Dogg.” Tha Shiznit features four of the ten records, all of which are poised to sell for more than $200.
One item that will face a relatively high bar: a handwritten setlist. The setlist at the Realest comes from an unknown show, though its provenance to Snoop Dogg is indisputable. Last year, a torn, handwritten setlist from a September 2008 show, accompanied by a ticket stub, sold for $2,640 with buyer’s premium. That setlist was authenticated by JSA. The setlist in Tha Shiznit has amassed over 25 bids from 14 bidders, reaching over $600 with several days remaining. Given the lack of specific dating, a result on par with or close to the 2023 result would arguably represent a healthy signal for the provenance and accompanying authentication.
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Phase 1 of Tha Shiznit closes this Sunday, June 2nd on The Realest’s website. The next phase closes on June 16th. Bidders will have to wait until then for their chance to win the Snoop-smoked blunt, which has to be the cannabis equivalent of a Babe Ruth game-used baseball bat.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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The European football season is coming to a close. Manchester City won a fourth straight Premier League title, Real Madrid is marching towards another Champions League victory, and in just a few short months, they’ll prepare to do it all over again. Sometimes in football, it seems like the only things that change are the kits.
As is tradition, clubs have begun to reveal their new kits for the season ahead, soon relegating this year’s edition to clearance sales. But this summer’s bargain-buy could become a $500 prize years down the road. Unbeknownst to many, vintage football jerseys - even the replicas - have become a globally popular collectible category.
Those unaware here in the United States might soon familiarize themselves ahead of the 2026 World Cup. At least that’s part of the thesis fueling The Chernin Group’s $38.5 million investment in Classic Football Shirts, a UK-based seller of all varieties of vintage football jerseys. While the company may be lesser known to residents of the US, it's a staple in England, generating nearly $24 million in revenue in the 12 months ending June 30, 2022. Those figures grew from humble beginnings in 2006 when the company started with maxed-out credit cards and a goal of selling ten shirts daily. That meager daily volume has now grown to 2,000 - 2,500 shirts.
So why football jerseys? And what drives their value?
Unlike in American sports, clubs release a new set of jerseys every season. That practice has obvious commercial appeal for the clubs, who can reliably sell new jerseys to the same customers annually. It also ensures that less popular jerseys subject fans to only one year of pain; meanwhile, Broncos fans are stuck with their newly released atrocities for seasons to come, and the Patriots continue to look like a franchise built in Madden Create-A-Team, with uniforms as devoid of appeal as the offensive roster.
From a collectability standpoint though, a potent, nostalgic association with a specific season is more important than any of these factors. Fans can vividly picture the jersey on a player's back when he scored that pivotal goal. Those images are burned indelibly into our memories for a lifetime, and owning the jersey becomes a physical expression of that memory. In that way, nostalgia can be a significant driver of demand, as it is in many other collectible categories.
There's more to demand for football jerseys than nostalgia alone. Consider a few factors:
Usage. Not surprisingly, a market hierarchy exists relating to usage, ranging from game-worn at the top to match-issued to simple replicas available in retail settings. While the worn items are most valuable, it’s the retail jerseys that comprise the vast majority of shirts sold.
Club. The size of a club’s following and its global appeal matter; generally, a Real Madrid jersey will attract more demand than a Gillingham jersey. But greater size can also mean greater production…
Season. The associated season contributes incremental value - a jersey from the “Galacticos” Madrid era of Ronaldo, Zidane, and Roberto Carlos cultivates a stronger nostalgic pull than a less memorable and less trophy-laden era.
But it’s not just about on-pitch success and global clout. Last, but not least....
Aesthetics. Because football jerseys sit at a unique intersection of streetwear and nostalgia, pure aesthetics play a role. Some jerseys are iconic and valuable simply because they look incredible, with bonus points awarded for memorable and likable sponsors. Look no further than the Nintendo or 7-Up-sponsored Fiorentina kits of the ‘90s. The club hasn’t won the Italian league since the 1960s, but collectors still dearly covet those jerseys, which command more than $500 when authentic versions surface.
As with other markets, demand is just one component shaping values. For a jersey to be valuable, it has to be both desirable and scarce. Time does most of the heavy lifting for those jerseys of the ‘80s and ‘90s, with most jerseys worn into deterioration, leaving behind scant supply in strong condition. Naturally, the population of mint jerseys from vintage eras is smaller than the population of those exhibiting greater wear. Another variable is the inclusion of a player’s name on the back. Some players are inextricably linked with a certain season’s jersey, but the supply of specific player jerseys is generally lower than the mass-produced plain versions.
Among more modern jerseys, lower production of popular designs can fail to satiate demand. Lower production can result from a few factors. Manufacturers may produce away or third kits in lower quantities than primary, home kits. Alternatively, a club or nation might not be globally popular enough to merit significant production runs. But when a design is well received, as Nigeria’s 2018 World Cup shirt was, the scarcity of the jersey quickly becomes a story, further increasing the desirability.
Few are better attuned to the forces of supply and demand that shape the vintage football jersey market than the team at Classic Football Shirts. Though the company is not the sole player in a popular space, with others such as Cult Kits offering competition, it has enjoyed significant success, achieving profitability each year since its inception. While the football shirt category shares some common ground with the sneaker market, Classic Football Shirts is no StockX or GOAT. Like those players, the company brought retail familiarity to a secondary market good, while also serving as an arbiter of authenticity in a market full of fakes and reissues.
But StockX and GOAT are peer-to-peer marketplaces that allow sellers to set prices and buyers to submit bids. Classic Football Shirts purchases jerseys directly from sellers before offering them at a markup - a more traditional retail model in an untraditional category. In finance terms, the company is less broker and more dealer.
Inventory management, then, is crucial. Marketing the right products to the right audiences in the right moments unlocks greater profit. But not all product leaves the CFS inventory as quickly as it arrives. The company, knowing the market as it does and understanding collectible market tailwinds, holds a Manchester-based vault of true rarities, many match-worn. While the company uses some of those jerseys for marketing and PR, in a world where Maradona and Messi jerseys command millions, it's not hard to imagine there are handsome gains embedded in its collection.
If this market is to mature and grow as sneakers did, it will require change. At present, the incumbent competitors essentially treat every jersey as a wholly unique, 1-of-1 item. There's merit to that approach, particularly with vintage items, and it makes sense in a physical retail environment (CFS currently has two such locations, plus a new NYC pop-up). Perhaps that's the vision, with more physical locations said to be an objective of the investment funding. But in the world of e-commerce, it scales poorly. Consumers must wade through a messy and complicated landscape of product listings in hopes of finding their grail. It's a perpetual scavenger hunt with no assurance of reward.
The massive unlock for StockX in sneakers was the single product page. On one page, collectors could find all the listings in every size for a specific sneaker, along with relevant sales data for market insight. Importantly, they could favorite that page and receive notifications when new offers were posted, ensuring they wouldn't miss out. This setup removed significant friction from the market, enabling participants to transact more efficiently and with greater confidence.
Organization and data are noticeably absent from the vintage football jersey market, as are more universal standards of condition and authenticity. Classic Football Shirts authenticates the shirt, assesses the condition, and sets the price. That do-it-all approach demands a lot of trust from consumers, particularly when pricing data is limited. Whether the market can sustain third-party authenticators and graders or intermediary marketplaces remains to be seen, as does the potential appeal to a StockX or authenticators in other categories.
Though collectors in the United States tried to express a thesis on global and obsessive soccer culture through cards over the last few years, it seems an obvious fixture of the match-going public was an attractive alternative all along. One thing is clear: by the time this season's jerseys enter the "vintage" category, the market for football jerseys will have changed dramatically.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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This is the latest edition of a multi-part blog series produced in partnership with The Realest on the key events and factors shaping the music memorabilia market. The Realest is the first dedicated authentication standard and marketplace for entertainment memorabilia.
“A shoe is just a shoe until my son steps into it.” That line, improvised by Viola Davis as Deloris Jordan in AIR, is probably the most memorable one in the film. It’s also an incredibly astute characterization of the memorabilia market both at the time and even more so today.
While exciting assets like jerseys and sneakers went unmonetized via formal channels for years, today’s sports memorabilia market sees those items brought to market via formalized programs, as leagues and teams alike have recognized the untapped source of value. Until very recently, though, the mundane class of items - those that, at most, might have been fodder for unassuming ballboys, equipment managers, and locker room attendants - was scarcely even called memorabilia. But that’s all changing. Those overlooked items are now a burgeoning target for bidding.
“A chair is just a chair until someone sits in it.”
“A towel is just a towel until it wipes someone’s sweat.”
“A net is just a net until someone’s shot passes through it.”
Today, leagues, teams, and players are better equipped (pun intended) to engage fans who are eager to own a piece of the moment, whatever shape that may take. Few athletes have commanded the recent moment in sports better than Caitlyn Clark. The Iowa Hawkeyes hooper captivated the nation and propelled women’s college basketball to unprecedented heights in viewership through the team’s postseason run, culminating in an NCAA Tournament Final loss to South Carolina. At the beginning of that postseason run, Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament, for the third successive year thanks to Clark’s third successive Tournament MVP effort.
In the past, the paraphernalia from such events - the chairs, towels, nets, and signage - were effectively lost to the world, or at least their connection to the games and those who played in them was. Some well-connected fans might’ve walked away with keepsakes from time to time, but those not fortunate enough to be on-site often lacked the opportunity to acquire those items, at least with any notable and verifiable provenance. This time around, though, those opportunities were plentiful and their authenticity was assured, as The Realest partnered with the Big Ten to offer witness-based authentication and auctioning of an assortment of tournament items.
Among those items: “Game-Used Player Chair (Used by Iowa WBB #22 for Pre-Game Introductions).” We’ll allow you to guess or perhaps Google who might’ve worn #22 for Iowa. The chair featured The Realest’s gold hologram, meaning use by the athlete is guaranteed thanks to the presence of a TRuEST Authenticator who doesn’t let the item leave their line of sight from usage to collection to sale. It turns out that the market quite appreciated this offering. It received a staggering 45 bids to reach a $3,722 final price.
A seat used by #22 before the start of the game amassed 44 bids to sell for $2,505, while a seat used near the end of the second quarter drew 42 bids tallying $2,750. To put the results in context, the most expensive sports chairs ever sold at Goldin and Heritage were $3,840 and $3,383 respectively. A mere piece of the net from the same game similarly saw 41 bids battle to a $560 result. These prices, and perhaps more the competition to achieve them, are significant validation of the value proposition for witness-based authentication, particularly for those items that might be outside of the scope of a traditional photomatch. Similarly, for leagues and teams, the appetite from fans to collect previously overlooked items should serve as a jolting wake-up call.
In fact, Iowa’s rival in the NCAA Final, the South Carolina Gamecocks, recognized the value in the very court on which they won the championship. The university purchased the center-court logo and other parts of the court for approximately $86,000. While the school will keep the logo for display, other panels will be sold via Artsman, a company that specializes in crafting memorabilia from flooring and other items that would fall in the previously overlooked bucket.
The NBA has long embraced the value of game-worn memorabilia, led by jerseys. Recent events hosted by Sotheby’s as part of the NBA Auctions partnership demonstrate increased acknowledgment that fans covet other items as well. Via All-Star Weekend events, the league took the opportunity to bring the locker room nameplates of All-Stars and Rising Stars to auction. The nameplates were photomatched by MeiGray as part of the existing program. Continuing the rookie’s white-hot streak on the block, Victor Wembanyama’s nameplate sold for $12,700 against an estimate of $2,000 - $4,000. While most of the players didn’t perform to those heights, the nameplate lots still achieved $29,464 in total sales. That amount of revenue changes very little for the league, but it came from 25 throwaway items that otherwise would’ve added no value.
One item that might have been overlooked in a different era until its story was muddied and lost to time was the rim on which LeBron James broke the all-time scoring record. With 100% of net proceeds going to The Los Angeles Lakers Youth Foundation via MeiGray, it sold for $152,400. While it may be fair to consider nearly $30k in revenue to be de minimis for the NBA, most would agree the opportunity to direct $120,000 to charity is an exceedingly worthwhile pursuit. That’s the kind of door that organizations can now open by bringing previously overlooked memorabilia to market via more formalized channels. It may take time for the value of those items to find their appropriate level, and the consistent introduction of new supply may weigh on that value, but done via the right channels with the right authentication, win-win opportunities abound nonetheless.
The world can continue to let chairs be chairs and towels be towels, and that’s fine. But fans and collectors love storytelling, and memorabilia of various kinds, accompanied by verifiable provenance, can provide the perfect vehicle for it.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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REA’s first major auction event of 2024, the Spring 2024 event, closes this Sunday, offering a formidable assortment of vintage and modern card grails, as well as some unique memorabilia pieces. In partnership with REA, we’ll be previewing the action throughout the week to highlight some eye-catching lots with insightful market context. On Monday, we learned about some vintage baseball grails. On Wednesday, we took a deeper look at the game-worn market and the market for early Jordan sneakers. Today, we wrap it up with some unique card lots and consider the allure of sealed packs and set collecting.
After more than a decade in hiatus beginning in 1957, Topps returned basketball cards to the collecting forefront with its 1969-1970 set. The set brought striking and colorful issues for the likes of Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Lew Alcindor, John Havlicek, and Walt Frazier to collectors, with the latter three representing rookie cards. Given the void in releases, the memorable nature of the set’s design, and the stars featured, 1969-70 Topps has become one of the more cherished sets in basketball card history. In fact, it sits behind only 1986 Fleer and 1986 Fleer Stickers on the PSA Set Registry in terms of number of sets tracked. Put differently, only the power of rookie Michael Jordan proves superior in desirability.
Recent results for offerings from the set further emphasize that desirability. Take, for instance, a full, uncut sheet of all the cards in 1969-70 Topps. That work of art sold at Heritage earlier this year for $216,000. Or, there’s a set with a GPA of 9.01 that was ranked #6 on the registry at the time of sale in May of 2023; it sold for $174,000. While many have tried and successfully completed sets, doing so in high grades or otherwise desirable condition is a vastly more difficult task, and the market rewards the achievement in kind.
Of the 197 sets PSA counts on its registry, this example offered at REA currently ranks number 4, with a grade point average of 8.77. With that GPA, the set boasts a considerable number of cards that grade a PSA 9, and the infrequency with which some of those cards change hands says much about their rarity. A PSA 9 Jerry West, for example, hasn’t sold since January of 2021. A PSA 9 Oscar Robertson hasn’t sold since June of 2022. Nate Thurmond’s rookie in that grade last sold in February of 2022. There are countless, similar examples that aren’t exactly the types of cards you can pick up monthly in 2024.
While the set that sold for $174,000 in May 2023 may have offered a slightly higher GPA, the set at REA makes up for that shortcoming with a number of key cards in higher grades. While both sets land the most important Alcindor and Chamberlain cards in PSA 8 grades, the REA offers Oscar Robertson and Bill Bradley cards in a PSA 9 instead of a PSA 8 and an Elgin Baylor in a PSA 8.5 instead of a PSA 8. The difference between a PSA 8 and a PSA 9 can amount to several thousand dollars. Let’s use Earl Monroe’s card as an example; while he’s represented in PSA 9 format in both sets, his PSA 9 and PSA 8 cards both have relatively recent sales. In September of 2023, his PSA 9 sold for $10,010, while his PSA 8 recorded two sales that same month for $510 and $585 respectively.
In other words, GPA - while a very helpful tool in evaluating sets - may not tell the whole story, particularly when differences in score are relatively minor. The composition of the set is similarly important, and the composition here is quite strong, pushing the bidding to $174,000 with buyer’s premium before the weekend even begins. Now we wait to see if the power of top tier set collecting will once again demonstrate its might.
Released during the prime of the "Original Six" era, the 1954 Topps Hockey set represented the entry of the biggest name in trading cards into a sport that was gaining increasing popularity in the United States.
With the National Hockey League confined to only six professional teams, the 1950s were defined by bitter rivalries, Canadian dynasties, and an uptick in star-power on the ice. The 1940s belonged to Toronto, as the Maple Leafs won five titles throughout the decade. Then, it was the Detroit Red Wings, powered by a lineup laden with hall-of-fame icons, who would win four championships between 1949-1955. In the latter-half of the ‘50s, the torch was passed to Montreal, who secured five consecutive titles while winning 57% of their games between 1955 and 1960.
The legends who built the NHL into a thriving 32-team league can be found within the iconic 1954 Topps set.
Something that you won’t find: Any card from that set in a gem mint grade.
The hockey card market debuted in the early 1900s with the introduction of tobacco cards like the C55 set, but it wasn’t until O-Pee-Chee and Parkhurst produced their first hockey sets in the 1940s and ‘50s that hockey cards were manufactured and distributed at scale.
Spurred by their early success within the baseball card market, Topps entered the industry of hockey cards with this set in 1954. With vibrant colors and intricate illustrations, the 1954 Topps set was loaded with legends. Known simply as “Mr. Hockey”, Gordie Howe had already transformed Detroit into a dynasty, and today, prices for his cards reflect his influence on the game. His teammate, goalie Terry Sawchuk, stymied opponents during Detroit’s reign of dominance and also made his Topps debut within the 1954 printing.
The set wasn’t released without controversy. Any astute hockey collector might notice that despite printing a hockey set in 1954-55, Topps took time off before returning to the sport in 1957. This wasn’t by accident or oversight but, instead, was due to a lawsuit filed by the NHL against Topps due to the 1954-55 edition. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the cards found within the set, as they carry the name, image, and likeness of all players featured in addition to the actual team logos, but Topps didn’t carry a license with the league. This legal breach and lack of permission led the NHL to sue Topps and halt any production until an agreement was reached and the trading card company restarted its hockey card operations two years later.
Robert Edward Auctions has been a leader within the Topps hockey market. According to our data, REA has sold more than $1.7 million in Topps hockey cards over the past five years with more than $300,000 coming by way of sealed wax and unopened case sales. The pack presented by REA is graded PSA 6, one of the highest graded five-cent specimens in existence. Just as the 1954 set was the first appearance of Topps within the hockey card market, this pack is the first unopened example ever offered by REA. This hockey history has already attracted more than two dozen bids and surpassed $20,000 with just days remaining in the auction.
The modern NFL collectibles market is dominated by two names: Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
Considering 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls featured at least one of those two superstar quarterbacks, their control over the card market is fitting.
The premier card for Mahomes is the 2017 Panini National Treasures rookie patch auto (RPA), which comes in multiple variations including gold, holo, and green. Each variation provides a source of forced scarcity as the print runs are limited and, in turn, create an active market as collectors clamor for an opportunity to own one of these prized football collectibles.
The market for Mahomes reached a crescendo in 2021 with more than $23 million worth of cards and memorabilia sold including a $1.1 million sale of a BGS 9.5 graded Holo Gold RPA. In addition to the million-dollar result, 38 six-figure sales combined to contribute more than $11 million to the annualized total.. The market receded slightly in 2022 with $22 million in sales before really hitting the breaks in 2023, as the combined auction sales across all major houses tracked by Altan Insights settled below $12 million.
With little momentum heading into 2024, collectors of Mahomes memorabilia had to be impressed by the results in the first quarter. For starters, there was a National Treasures Red RPA that sold for $330,755, surpassing any sale at auction in all of 2023. The Mahomes market also saw a sports memorabilia record established by way of a game-worn jersey. Heading into the new year, the auction record for game worn Mahomes memorabilia was just above $50,000. There were two sales in Q1 that exceeded any previous result as a pair of photomatched cleats sold for $71,980 and a game-worn jersey realized a record-setting $213,500.
Since 2019, Robert Edward Auctions has sold more than 60 Patrick Mahomes cards and collectibles with a top sale of $60,000. That sale was for the same 2017 National Treasures Green RPA that is up for auction this week with bids already pushing above 50% of the previous sale price. The card is graded BGS 9 with gem mint corners and mint centering. The tri-color patch showcases the unmistakable red, yellow, and white color scheme that has adorned the uniforms of the team since the 1960s, when the franchise was headquartered in Texas. Completing the card is the penmanship of Mahomes in blue marker that earned a gem mint 10 from Beckett.
In February, Mahomes secured his third Super Bowl title in five years as the Chiefs officially entered the dynasty conversation. In 1Q24, collectors took notice with record-setting sales and a positive turn for five and six-figure Mahomes cards. During that same quarter, total sales for comparable active quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson declined as the market made a statement. No current star QB can compete with Mahomes on the field, and we’re witnessing a similar trend on the auction block.
The REA Spring 2024 auction, featuring all the items we've previewed this week, closes this Sunday (4/21) at 9PM.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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REA’s first major auction event of 2024, the Spring 2024 auction, closes this Sunday, offering a formidable assortment of vintage and modern card grails, as well as some unique memorabilia pieces. In partnership with REA, we’ll be previewing the action throughout the week to highlight some eye-catching lots with insightful market context. If you missed Part 1, we covered some incredible vintage baseball grails. Read it here. Today, we resume our series, this time focusing on a game-worn primer before some major sneakers and jerseys come to the block.
The market for game-worn and game-used memorabilia has grown significantly over the past few years. Consider these statistics from our reports on the Sports Collectibles Market:
These statistics are impressive, but they become more remarkable when you consider that sports cards (particularly modern cards) have decreased dramatically in both values and sales volumes over the same period. While the category that led the sports collectibles boom in late 2020 and late 2021 has succumbed to market weakness, the high end of the game-used market has taken to new heights with startling regularity, producing auction results that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Eight of the top ten sports memorabilia auction sales of all time have come in 2022 and 2023. The record books have quite literally been rewritten and then rewritten again.
One of the earlier signals of a surge in game-used interest came in October 2021, as the Michael Jordan nostalgia wave rolled through Sotheby’s, bringing with it the Nike Air Ships believed to be his earliest known sneakers worn in the NBA regular season. Before his debut signature sneaker, the Air Jordan 1, was ready for primetime, Jordan wore the Air Ship in his earliest days as a Chicago Bull. This particular pair dated to his fifth game, with provenance to a Denver Nuggets ball boy. The signed pair was estimated to sell for $1,000,000 to $1,500,000, and the result didn’t disappoint. The sneakers sold for $1,472,000, establishing a record at the time for any pair of sneakers sold at auction.
To put the result in context, it more than doubled the prior record of $615,000, held jointly by two pairs of Jordan-worn Air Jordan 1s. While the appearance of Air Jordan 1s at auction is relatively common, with more than a few available at auction annually, worn Air Ships are seen much less frequently. Prior to that Sotheby’s result, we count only two appearances.
A signed pair with ball boy provenance from a December 2nd, 1984 game against the Lakers sold for $71,554 at SCP Auctions in 2015. That pair featured “Nike Air” on the back of the shoes, a sign that they may be a slightly later and more common iteration than the $1,472,000 pair, which features only "Air" printed on the back. Still, the ~$1.4 million difference in price says much about the elevation of the market since 2015. Another pair, similar to the one sold at SCP, was included in a Christie’s event in 2020 with an estimate of $350,000 - $550,000 but ultimately did not sell, perhaps arriving just a shade too early for the game-used boom.
In what’s a bit of an oddity for such a premier pair, the record-breaking Air Ships returned to auction in September of 2023 at Goldin. Though they highlighted the Sotheby’s auction, this time they fought for the spotlight with other top lots, reaching only $624,000. While it’s a significant cut from 2021, it still would’ve been sufficient to set a sneaker record back in 2021.
Today, the auction record for a single pair of sneakers stands at $2,238,000, set in November 2023 by a pair of Jordan 13s worn in Game 2 of the 1998 “Last Dance” NBA Finals. The record for any sneakers belongs to a collection - The Dynasty Collection - comprised of one sneaker from each of Jordan’s title-clinching performances. That collection sold for $8,032,800 earlier this year. For another piece of context on the market’s rise: in June of 2023, the sneakers worn in Michael Jordan’s famous “Flu Game” sold for $1,380,000 after selling for just $104,765 back in 2013. What a difference ten years can make.
REA will test the market for those early, Jordan-worn Air Ships this weekend, as the house brings a Hobby-fresh example to the auction block. Like those before it, this signed pair has provenance to a ball boy, but this time it’s direct provenance, as the consignor was the very person to collect the sneakers from Jordan when he served as a ball boy for the Pistons. The Bulls played away to the Pistons on November 7th and December 12th of 1984, meaning Jordan wore these sneakers in either his 6th or 24th game. The 6th game directly followed the game in which he wore the $1.5 million sneakers, and since he gave that “Air” pair away after the 5th game, he possibly began wearing this “Nike Air” pair the next time he took the court. By December 12th, he had begun wearing the Air Jordan 1 on occasion, though it was not yet a permanent fixture. The sneakers are accompanied by a wealth of material from the consignor demonstrating his position as a ball boy.
As it turns out, that ball boy made a frequent habit of asking players for their sneakers. And he was often successful. Also included in the REA event are signed pairs from Isiah Thomas and Dominique Wilkins, as well as a pair from Robert Parish. Thomas and Wilkins pairs have generally taken to low four-figure territory when they appear at auction. There’s a lot containing a further 18 pairs (17 of them signed) from a variety of players including Sidney Moncrief and Bill Cartwright. The collection is a veritable museum of 1980s basketball models, with Nike, Adidas, Converse, and even Pony all represented.
The game-worn material isn’t limited to sneakers, though, as game-worn baseball material will also come to the block this weekend. A 1968 Al Kaline uniform, worn in a championship season for the Tigers, is up for sale. The uniform has provenance to Tigers scout Bob Prentice, and SGC assigns it an “Excellent” grade despite post-Kaline wear by Prentice; the “Excellent” criteria states “there can be no doubt about the attribution of the use and wear to the single player in question.” A jersey from the championship clincher in the same season with photographer provenance sold for $47,800 in 2015, and Kaline-worn material continues to reside comfortably in the same low-to-mid-five-figure range depending on provenance and authentication.
Kaline is no doubt an all-time great, boasting 18 All-Star selections, but more contemporary stars are represented in the event as well. A Chipper Jones rookie uniform features in the Spring 2024 auction. The uniform boasts heavy wear from that '95 rookie season that ultimately saw the Braves win the World Series. It's graded A10 by MEARS and inscribed by Jones, headlining an assortment of three Jones-worn jerseys in the event. REA previously sold a 2005 Jones jersey for $2,040, while a home jersey from the same 1995 season sold at Goldin this fall for $4,880. The full uniform, though, could be the most desirable of them all.
With the background out of the way, now we wait to see if game-worn lots can again inspire spirited bidding as they find new homes at REA this weekend.
Stay tuned for the next edition of our preview - on Friday, we'll take a look at some of the more fascinating card assets in the REA event, including a look .
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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REA’s first major auction event of 2024, the Spring 2024 event, closes this Sunday, offering a formidable assortment of vintage and modern card grails, as well as some unique memorabilia pieces. In partnership with REA, we’ll be previewing the action throughout the week to highlight some eye-catching lots with insightful market context. Today, we kick it off with a look at three unique, vintage baseball lots that will no doubt capture collectors’ attention.
While Lou Gehrig’s playing career and statistics are often compared to other mid-twentieth century New York legends like Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle, one area where the three are incomparable can be found through the rarity of their autographs. While Mantle and Ruth signed well after their playing days were over, Gehrig’s early passing means that anything bearing his signature came from his playing days.
The rarity and history behind Gehrig’s signature have led to not only consistent appreciation on a value basis but have also made his autograph one of the most forged. This has led authenticators to offer an additional level of scrutiny to any Gehrig auto that comes across their desk and in turn, leads to a significant number of rejections by agencies like PSA, Beckett, and JSA.
It’s known that examples of Gehrig’s autograph, when signed in a more relaxed setting such as on a check or legal document, feature ‘Lou’ and ‘Gehrig’ separated by a distinct space. This Goudey card carries a Gehrig auto known as his “ballpark signature”. In layman's terms, the “Lou” and “Gehrig” are connected, something found on specimens that were signed at a baseball game, presumably when Gehrig was rushed or surrounded by a throng of young fans.
The signature displayed on this card was granted an impressive grade of PSA/DNA 9 and it’s easy to see why. For an on-card-autograph enthusiast, the placement couldn’t be better. With the pen ink angled across the center of the card, it creates a visually appealing effect that almost gives the impression that it’s a facsimile. The autograph itself features a defined outward-facing point on the “L”, something commonly missed by forgers, and also nearly perfectly matches the loop height of both the L and G. One could say that you would be hard-pressed to find a better Gehrig auto on a 1933 Goudey, but thanks to the PSA database, we know that none exist. Not only is the autograph graded by PSA, but it comes with additional papers from JSA to provide a level of authenticity that is rare even for a signature that is so commonly faked.
The 1933 Goudey set combined the golden era of pre-war baseball with the newfound hobby of card collecting. The 1930s marked the sunsetting of tobacco cards and the dawn of the chewing gum card. As collectors opened packs from the 240-card Goudey set, they found, for the first time, sticks of bubble gum. With more than a dozen bids already pushing this Gehrig Goudey into six-figures, the card is set to become the most expensive Gehrig card or memorabilia sold in 2024. According to our data, two Gehrig cards have sold for at least $100,000 through the first 100 days of the year. The total sum of all Gehrig card and memorabilia sales is already nearly $800,000, a strong pace when compared to last year’s total sales of nearly $4 million.
The rise of Type I photography is no secret, or at least it isn’t anymore after we detailed it in our recent Q1 report on the Sports Collectibles Market. Sports photographs have become a popular collector’s item, and like many collector’s items, they require authentication and grading, because not all photos are created equal. PSA grades photographs on a scale ranging from Type I to Type IV based on when it was developed and whether it was developed from the original negative. A Type I photograph carries the distinction of being developed from the original negative within approximately two years of the photo’s capture, while a Type IV photograph comes from a duplicate negative or wire transmission and was developed more than two years after the photo was taken.
Interest in Type I photography has sparked a wave of auction activity over the last year. For instance, our data shows that four auction houses (REA, Goldin, Heritage, and Memory Lane) sold 115% more Type I photo lots in 2023 than in 2022, generating 85% more sales volume. In just the first quarter of 2024, sales activity exploded at a rate that would see another 73% annual increase in lot count if maintained for the full year. While average prices are falling with the increase in supply, interest is trickling up-market to the most rare and desirable photographs; the number of five-figure Type I photo sales at those houses was up 122% in 2023 and is on pace to increase a further 15% in 2024 based on Q1 results.
While overall activity is way up in the Type I photography space, activity for Joe Jackson photos is decidedly not, because supply is limited. Over 1,900 Type I lots sold at the aforementioned houses in 2023 and through Q1 of this year. Just ten of them were Joe Jackson photographs, and two of those were actually team photos. Of those ten, five sold for five-figure sums. Even rarer still, though, are Type I photos from the lens of one of the great baseball photographers of all time, Charles Conlon, making this a Jackson grail. To put the admiration for Conlon in perspective, an archive of 7,492 of his original negatives sold for $1,792,500 in 2016.
This exact iconic photo, taken of Jackson during his Cleveland days, has sold several times since 2012, each time reaching new heights:
The opportunity to acquire it is here once again, but this time it comes against a backdrop of a market clamorous for Type I photography. One final thought: it bears noting that the record for a sports photograph stands at $1,470,000 for a signed photo of, you guessed it, Joe Jackson.
Babe Ruth was a particularly generous autograph signer, and thanks to his mythical status in pop culture (with a special nod to The Sandlot for further emphasizing the sentimental value of a Ruth-signed ball), his single-signed baseballs are popular among collectors. However, his generosity means that the population is not quite as lean as you might expect for a player that enjoyed his heyday in the 1920s and ‘30s. However, there are two distinguishing factors that help some Ruth balls stand out from the pack: 1) when it was signed, and 2) the quality of the ball and signature, as graded by PSA/DNA.
There have been more than 200 sales of single-signed Ruth baseballs since the start of 2020. Of those sales, only eight commanded auto grades of 9 or higher, and only two achieved a 10, with 7s and 8s proving more common. There is additionally a difference in supply based on era. Of those balls that have sold for more than $20,000 since the start of 2020, fewer than a quarter of them (about 21%) date to a period before 1930. As you can imagine, when these factors - top condition and early era - are combined, the population gets quite small. While there are a handful of balls graded 8 that were signed pre-1930, we were unable to find any others to achieve a higher grade that have sold in recent years, which brings us to this example.
The ball for sale at REA is graded an 8, while the autograph is graded a 9 by PSA/DNA, yielding an overall grade of 8.5. Based on the “Thos E. Wilson & Co.” print on the ball, it dates between 1916 and 1925, a range confirmed by Ruth’s placement of “Babe” in quotation marks, which is a practice he discontinued in the late-1920s. Examples with a quotation-laden “Babe” possessing similar eye appeal are scant. A glance at the Ruth balls that have achieved the highest prices underscores the importance of eye appeal, and relative to balls from a similar era, there is minimal fading of the signature present here.
This particular ball last sold in 2018 for $144,000. It attracted 15 bids last year, ultimately falling short of its reserve price. Can it become the first six-figure Ruth ball of 2024? The highest price achieved last year was $137,620, set by a PSA 8 ball dating to the final two years of Ruth’s life.
Stay tuned for the next edition of our preview - on Wednesday, we'll share a primer on game-worn memorabilia as REA brings a significant collection of sneakers to the block.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
