Just released: Our latest Sports Collectibles Market Report!
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REA’s major event of the season, the Summer 2024 event, closes this weekend, offering a formidable assortment of vintage and modern grails spanning cards and memorabilia. In partnership with REA, we wrap up our preview of the action today, shining a spotlight on some intriguing lots with insightful market context.
In case you missed the earlier editions, in late July, we kicked it off by exploring three pre-war baseball assets sure to resonate with vintage collectors across categories. Last week, we did a deep dive on high-graded rookie cards lining the event.
Joe Burrow’s meteoric rise from backup quarterback at Ohio State to NCAA Champion at LSU has continued through his first seasons in the NFL. Despite the setback of injuries, Burrow has helped guide the Cincinnati Bengals to a state of consistent relevancy, something that eluded the franchise for decades. After tearing his ACL, promptly ending his rookie season, Burrow not only bounced back in 2021-22 but nearly reached the pinnacle of professional football while leading Cincy to their first Super Bowl appearance in over 20 years. In a historic 2021-22 campaign, Burrow set multiple team records including yards in a season (4,611), touchdown passes (34), and completions (366).
The combination of a record-breaking season and a Super Bowl appearance has made game-worn memorabilia from Burrow’s 2021 season the most sought-after thus far in his young but promising career. The jersey presented by REA is backed by direct team provenance and was worn by Burrow in a critical mid-season rivalry win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. The Burrow-led Bengals were electric on offense, torching the Ravens for 416 passing yards in a 41-17 route that helped improve Cincinnati to a record of 5-2 and sole possession of first place in the AFC North. The supply of jerseys worn by Burrow from the 2021 season is sparse and only a select few have ever made their way to the auction block. This is the first Burrow jersey ever auctioned by REA and with 9 bids already pushing the price above $25,000 with premium, the game-worn threads could be poised to set a new auction record for any 2021 Burrow jersey.
Currently, the top realized price is credited to the jersey worn by Burrow in the second game of the 2021 season, a game in which the Bengals fell to the Chicago Bears but Burrow still managed to throw for 207 yards and tossed a pair of touchdowns. That jersey sold in 2022 for $29,400 and is one of only two 2021 Burrow jerseys that have sold for at least $20,000. The jersey is signed and inscribed by Burrow with details of the Bengals win and his stats from the game penned in legible silver sharpie. At its current price the jersey is not only positioned to close as a top-10 Joe Burrow collectible sale this year, but it will become the most expensive Burrow jersey sold at auction in 2024. With the Bengals returning the bulk of their offensive production from the 2023 season and Burrow back from injury, Cincinnati will once again find themselves in contention for another Super Bowl run.
Few sights in card collecting are more impressive and visually appealing than that of a meticulously assembled, complete set of vintage baseball cards. As the profiles of the vintage cards comprising these sets have risen in recent years, so too have those of complete collections. Right up among the most popular and aesthetically pleasing sets of the 1950s is the 1956 Topps Baseball set, featuring its host of icons and their portraits set against the backdrop of an action shot. Its popularity is demonstrated by its standing in the PSA Set Registry - its 448 sets attempted is the highest total of any company baseball set, trailing only 1986 Fleer Basketball overall.
The set, though, is a challenging grade - just 20% of the unqualified PSA population has graded 8 or higher. High grade examples get even rarer for the set’s most coveted cards. Only 5% of the Gray Back Mantle population is graded 8 or higher. It’s all the more impressive, then, when diligent collectors are able to assemble complete sets of high-grade cards. To even test the current top 25 list on the set registry, collectors have to build a set comprised almost entirely of PSA 8s, if not with a smattering of higher-graded examples. Offered at REA is a set ranking 20th on the registry with an 8.02 GPA, featuring entirely PSA 8s or higher, with 20 PSA 8.5s and 3 PSA 9s.
The market for sets of this nature has evolved considerably. For instance, in 2010, an all PSA 8 set sold for $34,162, which was near the range where similar sales settled during the early 2010s. Fast forward to 2022, and that price level was exceeded by a set with a 7.218 GPA with the key cards (Robinson, Clemente, and Mantle) excluded from the sale! Meanwhile, sets of entirely PSA 8 stature have taken to new heights. In 2022, an 8.07 GPA set sold for $108,000, while 2023 saw PSA 8-centric sets sell for $98,400, $90,000, and $78,000. The set at REA appears poised to test these levels and potentially exceed them, with 34 bids pushing the current price to $70,000 well before the close of bidding.
In 1982, Time magazine broke from its status quo and named the personal computer its “Man of the Year”. In doing so, the acclaimed publication stunned Apple co-founder Steve Jobs who anticipated that he would be selected for the annual award. In an interview with biographer Walter Isaacson, Jobs reflected on the day he received his copy of the 1982 “Machine of the Year” edition saying, “I read the article, and it was so awful that I actually cried.”
Not only did the magazine bypass Jobs for the personal computer, an article within the printing portrayed the young executive as a complicated figure with strained personal relationships and a controlling personality.
If Jobs had won Time’s “Person of the Year," it would have been his second time gracing the cover of the magazine. The man behind the scenes at Apple Computer, Inc. made his Time magazine debut on February 15th under the title “Striking it Rich: America’s Risk Takers”. The cover showcases a sketch of Jobs with an apple sitting atop his head. In the background is the Apple II, the personal computer later featured by Time in their “Machine of the Year” segment and the device recognized for moving Apple Computer along the frontier of modern technology. The copy on the auction block at REA displays an autograph of Jobs that has been authenticated by JSA. In recent years, prices for Apple memorabilia have skyrocketed as ungraded copies of the magazine now price in excess of $10,000 with graded examples eclipsing $35,000. The copy at REA carries a current bid of $15,000 and fittingly presents in better condition than examples we have seen sell for that price. For many people, this magazine introduced them to the man who would change not only the entire tech industry, but the world. Few, if any, companies have transformed modern life as profoundly as Apple has, and today, more than 1 billion people use Apple products worldwide.
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The Summer 2024 event closes on August 11th at 9PM.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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This is the latest edition of a multi-part,sponsored blog series produced in partnership with The Realest on the key events and factors shaping the entertainment memorabilia market. The Realest is the first dedicated authentication standard and marketplace for entertainment memorabilia.
It’s a word that wafts through the air with sophistication: provenance. Fancy though it may seem, the definition is fairly simple. Provenance refers to the chronology of ownership or custody of an item. Ideally, collectors can understand an item’s provenance dating all the way back to its genesis, whether that’s to an artist’s gallery, to the moment a jersey was on a player’s back, or to an entertainer or their estate. Clarity on an item’s full chain of ownership provides greater confidence in its authenticity, and missing links in that chain can create uncertainty.
In some cases, provenance is detailed by an auction house when selling an item. More recently, digital provenance tracking has become more prevalent with the rise of digital ledgers and blockchain technologies.
While the first link in the chain is most important as it pertains to authenticity and therefore value, it’s not the only link that can be additive from a value perspective. More on that in a moment.
Provenance to the Source
Most important in provenance is a chain of ownership that credibly begins directly at an item’s source. For different categories, the beginning of that chain can mean different things:
Perhaps the most recent and salient example of provenance to the source is the sale of Freddie Mercury’s estate at Sotheby’s. The multi-part auction generated over $41 million in total sales volume across a variety of memorabilia categories. The clamor for items directly from the source was so intense that an ordinary item like a comb sold for £152,400.
Fourteen handwritten lyric lots reached six-figure territory in USD terms. That’s more than triple the number of lyric lots from any artist that reached six-figures across auction houses in 2021, 2022, and 2023 combined. Similarly, fifteen Mercury-worn items reached six-figure USD prices; the most expensive Mercury-worn piece not sold in the Sotheby’s estate sale over the last three years was a Yankees jacket worn at MSG that sold for $57,600. A healthy result, but heartily outpaced by the contents of the Sotheby’s event. The volume of massive auction results at the estate sale is demonstrative not only of global appreciation for the artist but of the power of provenance.
It’s not just Mercury, or even entertainment memorabilia. The tech memorabilia market is dominated by collectibles from Apple’s earliest days, and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has supported that legacy by sharing memorabilia with the world. The original hand-drawn Apple II Schematics sold in 2020 for $630,273 with provenance from “Woz”. Additionally, Wozniak’s willingness to authenticate and validate pieces of Apple tech has helped to create and maintain a vibrant market for the modern artifacts, ensuring that the first link in the chain of provenance - dating back to an item’s time at the company - is credible.
Now, the initial sale of an item from the source is one thing, but does that provenance still matter when items from that initial sale come up for auction again in the future?
We can look to recent examples to confirm that this is indeed the case. Take Princess Diana’s charity auction of her collection of dresses at Christie’s in the late 1990s. The auction was a success at the time, grossing over $3.3 million for 80 dresses. Today, dresses that appeared in that event are a phenomenon when they come to the block. Julien’s recently held a sale of royal memorabilia, led by items of Princess Diana’s, and the top three lots were all dresses from the 1997 Christie’s sale. Each sold for more than $500,000, including one that reached $910,000, and each appreciated at a rate of more than 11% annually. It’s those items known to be directly from the late Princess’s collection - explicitly because they were in that sale - that command the highest prices.
Provenance to a Related Party
In the absence of direct provenance to the source - or in addition as a later link in the chain - provenance might trace directly to someone close to the subject of an item. For example, it‘s not uncommon to see the below parties consigning items and signing LOAs attesting to the subject’s use or ownership of it:
The further removed from the subject itself, the less valuable the provenance. For instance, items coming from someone who worked on an entertainer’s tour or as a ball boy at a basketball game may lack the same level of credibility as items that come directly from the entertainer or athlete. That’s not to say this level of provenance has no merit, and it trumps unclear, murky, or nonexistent provenance in almost all cases, but it is generally inferior to the provenance described above.
It’s also worth noting that an item can have provenance to both the source and a related party, with the latter simply serving as an intermediate link in the chain. The two are not mutually exclusive, and in some of the healthiest cases, the chain of ownership will often include both. In fact, even in the case of the Mercury sale, the provenance traces directly to Mercury via his estate, but between his passing and the ultimate sale, the contents were left to his longtime friend and former fiancee, Mary Austin, who consigned the items to Sotheby’s.
Similarly, in the world of gems and jewels, no collection has attracted attention quite like the one tied to the late Elizabeth Taylor. While Taylor passed away in 2011, the liquidation of her estate would span more than a decade across multiple auction houses. Analysis of condition reports from the sale of Taylor’s premier items displayed a recurring theme within the provenance descriptions. Various jewels and dresses were directly attributed to Tim Mendelson, Taylor’s longtime personal assistant and co-trustee of her $100+ million estate.
Additionally, the dress worn by the acclaimed actress at the 1961 Oscar award ceremony, which sold for £200,000 in December, was presented with provenance from another of Taylor’s assistants. In the early 1970s, Taylor gifted the gown, among other dresses by Dior and Karl Lagerfield, to her assistant Anne Sanz, who was married to Taylor’s chauffeur Gaston Sanz. While Gaston died in 2003, Anne helped bring the dresses back into the limelight after sitting in storage for half a century. Provenance to this credible, related party aided in a strong result.
Returning to the Apple example, various letters, business cards, photographs, and documents signed by Jobs have surfaced by way of Wozniak, with the affable engineer offering related-party provenance to items owned or used by his late, former colleague.
Provenance to a Collector or Institution
As alluded to previously, there are links in the middle of the chain of provenance that can be additive to an object’s value. Ownership that adds value generally falls into one of these three categories:
Observers should be aware of an item’s provenance when understanding auction results. A work of art or memorabilia item deaccessioned by a museum or sold from a renowned collector or celebrity may generate a sale value well in excess of what that item would achieve without the provenance. Observers must be careful, then, not to ascribe the value realized with exceptional provenance to the entire category of similar items. In that regard, results from items with exceptional provenance can distort our understanding of a market.
In the fine art market, provenance can deliver premiums and perfect sell-through rates. Take for example the liquidation of the late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s acclaimed art collection. Sold through Christie’s in 2022, the collection not only established multiple artist records, but became the most expensive single-owner sale in art history. The two-day event saw a 100% sell-through rate across 155 lots totaling $1.6 billion in sales.
Prior to the Allen auction, no more than two paintings had ever exceeded $100 million in a single sale. Five different works closed for at least $104 million each at the opening night of the Allen sale. The top lot, Georges Seurat's Les Poseuses, Ensemble (Petite version) achieved the highest result; the painting sold for $149 million, setting a new Seurat auction record and exceeding any previous Seurat sale by more than $100 million.
Astonishingly, 24 different artists achieved record sales in the Allen sale evening event, many by resounding margins. For instance:
Whether in fine art or more nuanced classes of collectibles, sales originating from esteemed sources frequently establish new records. In 2010, Sotheby’s sold 1,200 photos from the Polaroid Collection. The sale was a forced liquidation ordered by a bankruptcy court when controlling partners of the Polaroid Corporation were convicted in a Ponzi scheme. Its results were unprecedented for the collectible photography market.
With a sell-through rate of nearly 90%, the collection brought in $12.5 million and set multiple photographer records for the likes of Andy Warhol, Chuck Close, and David Hockney among others.
The importance of collector provenance within the wine market has commanded the spotlight over the past year. The prestigious French wine collection assembled by Taiwanese businessman Pierre Chen has been liquidating through a series of auctions hosted by Sotheby’s. The first sale took place in November 2023 and tallied $16.8 million with records established for Vosne Romanée, Cros Parantoux 1999 Henri Jayer, Chevalier Montrachet 2007 Domaine d’Auvenay, and 1971 La Tâche.
In June, Sotheby’s held their first ever auction dedicated entirely to champagne with every lot contributed by Chen’s cellar. The auction saw a consistent premium applied as more than half of all lots exceeded their pre-sale high estimates while records were established for magnum lots of 1966 Dom Perignon, 1985 Krug, and 1990 Salon Le Mesnil.
With more than 25,000 bottles scheduled to hit the market, the sales have spilled over into 2024 as a July event based in France saw another $2 million in wine sold and another eight records broken, no doubt propelled by the power of Chen’s curation and the prestige of the collection.
How can provenance be confirmed?
The challenge with provenance - as with authentication - is the question of how a collector can verify that the item is what it’s advertised to be. In memorabilia, authentication answers the question of how we know an item was used by a certain person. But we also need to be able to ascertain that the item before us was the very same one that was owned by a certain collector or appeared at a certain sale. For instance, how can we prove that a Princess Diana dress offered at auction now is the very same one that appeared in the 1997 Christie’s event?
This is a question that often lacked a precise, formal, and concrete answer previously. But with new technologies, answers are crystallizing. For instance, through the use of holographic technologies and even invisible diamond dust, items can be tagged in tamper proof manners, and those tags can be used to digitally verify the authenticity of the item. Similarly, blockchain technologies can be integrated with those tags to enable provenance tracking.
As a result, the days of paper letters and informal confirmation of an item’s provenance are numbered.
As prices rise and pop culture memorabilia becomes a mainstream market, the importance of provenance in establishing the authenticity of items cannot be overstated. Historically, the auction industry has been tasked with confirming authenticity through provenance research. Today, companies like The Realest are changing the process and streamlining the required analysis by establishing direct relationships with artists and athletes, while also leveraging the above technologies to sustain the power of that direct provenance into the future.
How does the Realest strive to achieve a higher degree of credibility in provenance for items it authenticates and sells?
Direct connection and sourcing from the heavy metal band Megadeth led to an auction filled with merchandise, setlists, and stage-used materials. The top lot, an autographed Dave Mustaine Gibson Guitar, sold for $14,600, nearly 3x the going rate for a similar set of strings available on the public market. Then, earlier this summer, The Realest conducted an exclusive auction of Snoop Dogg memorabilia which featured a Death Row Records chain, Wrestlemania-worn outfit, and a partially smoked blunt. The auction exceeded six figures in total sales, reflecting the appetite for memorabilia directly sourced from the original owner.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Sponsored post
REA’s major event of the season, the Summer 2024 event, closes in mid August, offering a formidable assortment of vintage and modern grails spanning cards and memorabilia. In partnership with REA, we’ll be previewing the action over the next few weeks to shine a spotlight on some intriguing lots with insightful market context.
In case you missed last week's edition, we kicked it off by exploring three pre-war baseball assets sure to resonate with vintage collectors across categories. Today, we take a look at some of the rare rookie cards making rare trips across the auction block.
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Today’s rookie cards in the ultra-modern category are numerous, multiplied in supply by the number of products, sets, and parallels. While serial numbering of parallels ensures a hierarchy that still sends the most coveted cards to stratospheric levels of value, the landscape isn’t as easily understood as it once was. But the further back in time you go, the simpler the rookie card landscape becomes, and the passage of time means that natural scarcity takes hold, with high grades of older rookies remaining in short supply.
Thanks to that limited supply, the top examples of certain vintage cards - and even some more modern ones - only come up for sale every so often, and because of the narrower scope of products at the time of their release, substitutes are few. Often, the only substitute is lower grade quality, which to collectors chasing the best is no substitute at all. Let's use some examples from the REA event to better illustrate just how rare some of these cards and their availability at auction can be.
Though collectors may debate the merits of 1951 Bowman and 1952 Topps as the true rookie card of Willie Mays, the reality is that opportunities to buy the best of either are effectively nonexistent, so a substitution isn’t really viable. At present, there are 2,083 unqualified 1951 Bowman Willie Mays cards in the PSA population. Only 9 of those are graded 8.5 or higher, representing a mere 0.4% of the total population. A PSA 9 hasn’t sold publicly since 2009, and there’s only one 8.5 in the population report with no record of a public sale. Of course, that will change shortly when the lone 8.5 sells at REA.
Likewise, a PSA 8.5 or PSA 9 1952 Topps Mays hasn’t sold publicly in the 2020s. The last time a PSA 8.5 ‘52 Topps (also pop 1) sold in August of 2019, it drew $90,000, more than three times the $28,800 result for a PSA 8 in the same month. The PSA 8 ‘52 Topps Mays has increased in value by 3.5X since then, while the PSA 8 ‘51 Bowman has 4X’d….and both have sold on more than 15 occasions to the PSA 8.5’s zero. As a result, the anticipation for a big number from this month’s PSA 8.5 sale is palpable.
You need not travel all the way back to the early 1950s to find iconic athletes with scant rookie card supply. In the case of Wayne Gretzky and the 1979 O-Pee-Chee Hockey set, the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against any high-grade potential. Despite a total population of nearly 12,000 cards, the PSA 9 and 10 population sits at a mere 0.8% - a shockingly low share for a late 1970s printing. The O-Pee-Chee versions were produced in Canada, while their American counterpart was printed under the Topps brand. Though still a miniscule percentage, 1.3% of the American-made edition carries a mint or gem mint grade by PSA. The difference in population can be traced to a variety of factors including production quality, packaging, and storage.
The O-Pee-Chee Company developed a reputation for inconsistent printing and low-quality paper stock. While Topps used a guillotine-style blade through the late 1970s, which led to sharp edges but sometimes off-centering, the wire-cutting method used by O-Pee-Chee led to similar centering flaws but also resulted in battered edges and corners. The wire cutting blades were prone to dull quickly and the variability likely contributed to the low number of quality Gretzky rookie cards. If a card did manage to survive the printing and cutting process in a gem-mint state, the wax packaging used by O-Pee-Chee often left residue or stains on the cards, while erratic temperatures and humidity in Canada led to the rotting and deterioration of many cases.
The average auction price achieved for a PSA 9 O-Pee-Chee Gretzky over the past two years is $129K while the PSA 9 Topps version has averaged less than $40K. Heading into August, there have been the same exact number of verified auction sales (15) over that two-year period, which means that despite higher proportional turnover within the mint O-Pee-Chee population, the Canadian cards are still priced at a 3x multiple over the American edition.
The 1969-70 Topps Basketball set is one of the more iconic vintage basketball sets in existence, as it represented the return of Topps to the sport after more than a decade of absence. The set’s most coveted rookie is that of Lew Alcindor - later, Kareem Abdul Jabbar. The population of Alcindor cards in both the PSA and SGC census is nearly double that of the next most popular submission, Wilt Chamberlain. But of 1,954 Alcindor cards in the SGC pop report, just 10 are graded SGC 9, with none higher. That amounts to 0.5% of the population, a figure which is nearly replicated at 0.4% at PSA. So, popular though the card may be, high-graded examples are quite rare.
An SGC 9 has sold three times since the start of 2023, though the sale at REA will be the first of 2024. Those three 2023 sales traded at a multiple between 2.5 and 3.1x higher than a PSA 8. If you applied that range to the last sale of a PSA 8, you’d expect a result for the SGC 9 between $46-58k. While - oddly - an SGC 8 hasn’t traded in that timeframe, the multiples expand abundantly as you move down the ladder, reaching as high as 22x at one point versus an SGC 7. So though some may question the magnitude of difference in quality between an SGC 7 and an SGC 9 or a PSA 8 and a PSA 9, the market remains quite steadfast in its belief that the magnitude of difference in value is sizable.
With zero gem-mint cards and only five mint examples, the Joe Namath rookie card market is almost barren of high-grade prizes.
The enhanced 2-1/2” x 4-11/16" dimensions of the 1965 Topps “Tall Boys” Football set not only made the cards recognizable but also added a level of difficulty for those looking to preserve their collection. Unable to fit inside a standard sleeve, the edges and corners of cards from the set paid the price, and those that survived in near-mint condition now command top prices at auction.
The last verified 1965 Topps Joe Namath PSA 9 sale came in 2018 and realized $264,000. Since August 2018, the PSA 8 market, which carries a population of nearly 80 cards, has appreciated by more than 30%. The Joe Namath rookie card is not only plagued by poor condition, but it was also a short print. At the time, the AFL was still a fledgling league that had been little more than a punching bag for the premier NFL. The high-numbered cards within the 1965 set predominantly feature AFL players including Namath, Tom Flores, and Lance Alworth. The 1965 Topps card is the only Joe Namath card with a PSA population of at least 2,000 that has not recorded a single gem mint copy. Although it’s by far the most sought-after and valuable Namath, the 1965 rookie is his third most-graded card. As of July, the 1965 PSA population is below 2,200 while the 1972 and 1969 populations sit at 3,012 and 3,274 respectively. The lower population for a premier rookie is yet another indicator of how short that 1965 AFL print run might have been.
The enemy of high card grades? Foil. That’s why the 1993 Upper Deck SP Derek Jeter rookie - despite being vastly younger in age than the cards we’ve discussed so far - is so difficult to obtain in strong condition. The foil happily betrays the card’s flaws, easily surfacing scratches or corner imperfections. There are 4,768 Jetercards in the SGC population report, but a mere 4 of them have attained an SGC 10. That’s the top 0.08% of the population, better than 99.92% of other specimens. The figures are similar at PSA, where PSA 10s sit in the top 0.09% of the population, with just 22 of almost 24,000 cards having made the grade.
Before selling at REA for $312,000 in April - which was a massive improvement on two December 2022 sales for $204,000 - a PSA 10 version of the card hadn’t traded for the full balance of 2023 after a flurry of activity at the market’s peak in 2022. That result bucked a trend of flat-to-down performance for lower grades over the same period, perhaps emphasizing the unique appeal of rare, high-graded examples. Similarly, it’s now been over a year since an SGC 10 last changed hands. The last time an SGC 10 traded, it did so at just shy of a 10X multiple to a PSA 9, the lowest multiple since 2019. Without multiple expansion, that would imply a current value of a little below $34k. Over the last six sales, though, that multiple has averaged about 14.5X, which implies a $51k value at current levels. With bidding already exceeding that $34k level with fees, it seems the return to auction after the year-long absence of the high graded example has once again awoken Jeter collectors from their slumber.
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All of these rare, high-graded grails close on August 11th at 9PM. Who knows when the next opportunity might come?
Enjoyed this article? Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter to receive more like it in your inbox weekly!
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Sponsored post
REA’s major event of the season, the Summer 2024 event, closes in mid August, offering a formidable assortment of vintage and modern grails spanning cards and memorabilia. In partnership with REA, we’ll be previewing the action over the next few weeks to shine a spotlight on some intriguing lots with insightful market context.
Today, we kick it off by exploring three pre-war baseball assets sure to resonate with vintage collectors across categories.
Ahead of REA’s Spring 2024 auction, we highlighted another Joe Jackson Type I photo, that one shot by the famed baseball photographer Charles Conlon. Despite the fact the photo had already sold four times in the last 12 years, increasing significantly each time, it reached a $166,000 result in the spring, improving by another 25% over a sale recorded just one year earlier.
That’s the power of one of the most coveted Type I photo subjects in sports; Jackson’s photo credentials are well documented. The all-time sports photograph record stands at $1,470,000 for a signed photo of Jackson. Thanks to the early-1900s era in which he played, supply is limited. More than 3,200 Type I photos have sold at four prominent auction houses over the last 18 months through the end of June. Just 13 of those lots featured Joe Jackson. 7 of them sold for five-figure sums, and a handful that missed that mark didn’t feature Jackson as the lone subject, instead depicting him in a team or with a teammate.
Overall, Type I photography continues to rise and gain an audience as a popular category at auction. Through June, REA, Goldin, Heritage, and Memory Lane are on pace to achieve Type I photo sales volume 54% higher in 2024 than in 2023. The lot count is on pace to grow a staggering 175%, which means greater supply available and therefore lower average prices. But that introduces a chasm between the prices realized for pedestrian photos and true rarities - five-figure sales are on pace to grow 20%. As evidenced above, Jackson typically falls in the true rarity category.
This particular photograph hails from 1919, the year of the scandalous World Series that saw Jackson eventually banned from the game. Another Type I photo, larger in size than the one offered here but depicting a comparable Jackson close-up and dating to 1919, sold for $26,960 in January of 2023. Can the photo offered at REA capture tailwinds similar to those enjoyed by the Conlon photo in April to deliver a strong result? It'll be another five-figure outcome for Jackson, as the $10,000 opening bid has been hit.
Game-worn material from the 1930s is scarce, scarcer still for one of its stars who managed just five full seasons. For Dizzy Dean, though, those five seasons were prolific, as the outspoken and charismatic hurler led the Cardinals’ “Gas House Gang” to a 1934 World Series title. That season, Dean took home the MVP award thanks to his thirty wins, a feat that hasn’t been equaled in the National League since. He finished as the MVP runner-up in 1935 and 1936 before an injury in the 1937 All Star Game ultimately changed the course of his career, curtailing the high-end speed of his renowned fastball. Following his career on the field, Dean further endeared himself to the public as a broadcaster, relying on his colorful, country patois to uniquely bring the game to life.
Rare appearances of Dean game-worn material at auction have achieved impressive results far before the more recent inflection in demand for high-end game-worn assets. Most notably, in 2010, REA sold a home jersey from the same period as the road jersey offered in August, achieving a sum of $103,500. That same year, Lelands sold a 1938 Cubs jersey, believed to be worn by Dean in the World Series, for $37,504.
Consider that in 2010, the most expensive price ever paid for a Babe Ruth jersey was $900,000, achieved back in 2005 for the same jersey that will cross the auction block later in August. That jersey, albeit with bolstered authentication pointing to the “Called Shot” game, has seen bidding reach $13 million already. Similarly, the most expensive Lou Gehrig jersey in 2010 was $717,000. Today, that record stands at $2,580,000.
Now, Dean isn’t Ruth or Gehrig…obviously…and their record-holding jerseys saw their prices bolstered by photomatch authentication in contrast to the MEARS A9 grade held by the jersey offered next month. Still, the evolution in prices is demonstrative of the rising demand for vintage baseball grails. Dean was a contemporary of those icons and a star that loomed among the game’s best at the peak of his powers. The question is to what degree that heightened demand will lift the appetite for a true rarity of the era.
In 2022, REA sold a PSA 9 graded 1910 E93 Standard Caramel Cy Young card for a record-breaking $522,000. To put that figure into perspective, even after more than two years since the sale, it remains the most expensive E93 Standard Caramel Cy Young card, surpassing the next highest sale by 52x. The cumulative sales of all PSA-graded E93 Standard Caramel Cy Young cards amount to approximately $611,000 across more than 40 total auction results. For those keeping score at home, the sale of that single PSA 9 card accounts for over 85% of this total value.
What made that REA sale so historic?
The E93 auctioned in that Spring 2022 event was not only a PSA 9, an almost unbelievable feat on its own, it was also the highest graded example with no like-graded copies in existence. In REA’s Summer 2024 Auction, there’s yet another T206 Cy Young that stands as the highest PSA graded example. The rarity of this particular Cy Young goes even further as it’s the only Broad Leaf example that shows Cy’s glove in the PSA census. Just as this PSA 5.5 graded example is unmatched, so was the career of vintage baseball’s premier pitcher.
Born Denton True Young, “Cy” earned his legendary nickname after causing so much damage to the grandstand behind home plate with his fastball that teammates quipped it looked like a cyclone had struck the stands. His storied career garnered multiple records, many of which will likely never be threatened in today’s game. Cy Young holds the record for most career wins (511), most innings pitched (7,356), and tossed 749 complete games which accounts for 91% of all games he started.
Heading into the sale of this PSA 5.5, the last public auction of a glove-showing Broad Leaf example came in 2021 after REA sold a SGC 1.5 for $28,800. The PSA slabbed Broad Leaf has already reached $67,500, making it the second most expensive Cy Young card ever sold by REA and setting an auction record for the variation.
Stay tuned for the next edition of our preview - next Friday, we'll share a primer on a major assortment of high-graded, vintage cards.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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Earlier this month, Christie’s provided a hot talking point for the middle of summer, announcing its auction results for the first half of 2024. To the surprise of few, auction sales were down markedly from the first half of 2023, falling 22% to a total of $2.1 billion. And that 2023 first half total was already down 23% from 2022; over two years, sales have fallen a precipitous 40%.
The market softness is by no means a Christie’s anomaly, as colder conditions have tightened their bruising grip on a wide spectrum of houses. Barring an unforeseen and unlikely second half turnaround on par with Bobby Boucher showing up at half time and the Mud Dogs winning the Bourbon Bowl, the art market is likely to close 2024 with its second consecutive annual decline in auction sales. These are bleak times in the art world, but they are not without precedent. In fact, per historic Art Market reports from Arts Economics, auctions sales declined consecutively in 2008 and 2009, 2015 and 2016, and 2019 and 2020.
Good news: In each instance, there was no third year of decline, and the market responded with a spirited recovery.
In fact, across those three instances, the average third year increase in art market auction sales amounted to 43%. Even better, in the two years following consecutive years of auction sales decline, the market averaged a 52% total increase from the trough.
2008/2009 Drawdown & Subsequent Recovery
2007: $32.9B
2008: $28.0B (-15%)
2009: $18.3B (-35%, -44% from 2007)
2010: $27.6B (+51%)
2011: $32.4B (+17%, +77% from 2009)
2015/2016 Drawdown & Subsequent Recovery
2014: $32.7B
2015: $29.9B (-9%)
2016: $22.5B (-25%, -32% from 2014)
2017: $28.4B (+26%)
2018: $29.1B (+2%, +29% from 2016)
2019/2020 Drawdown & Subsequent Recovery
2018: $29.3B
2019: $25.2B (-14%)
2020: $17.9B (-29%, -39% from 2018)
2021: $27.1B (+51%)
2022: $26.8B (-1%, +50% from 2020)
Note: dollar figures represent global public auction sales of fine and decorative art and antiques.
The takeaway: significant drawdowns in activity over multiple years are not at all uncommon in the art world, and they often follow a period of significant trophy sales, carefully managed auctions, and heavy speculation on young artists (all are familiar recent factors). But the art market frequently bounces back with vigor after a reset.
A word of caution. While the market did recover, it never again reached the peak in auction sales achieved in 2007. It came close in 2011 and even closer in 2014 but couldn't eclipse that mark. Since 2014, the market hasn't crossed $30 billion in public auction sales. Part of this is due to a mix shift by auction houses towards private sales, which now total close to $4 billion annually.
It’s not all bad. Christie’s reported an 87% sell-through rate, which remains a healthy figure on par with last year (albeit under tightly managed conditions), as well as a 111% index of hammer price to the low estimate, better than last year’s 107%. Expectations have adjusted, and the lots that are selling are largely meeting those new, reduced expectations.
Plus, outside of Christie’s, Heritage Auctions - which boasts a harder lean away from art and into cultural collectibles - reported the highest mid-year total in its history, hitting $925 million in sales, a figure which would have been a full year record as recently as four years ago.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
Photo: Fanatics Collect
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Not all PSA 10s are created equal.
That’s a widely held belief in the sports card market that adds to an already overflowing pot of market nuance. While grading adds a remarkable amount of structure and uniformity to a market sorely in need of it, it’s not a perfect science that puts all cards of the same grade on equal footing. Explaining the gaps in market value between a PSA 10 and a PSA 9 to a Hobby outsider already draws looks of incredulity, so imagine explaining that - well, actually - some PSA 9s are vastly more valuable than other PSA 9s because of largely unquantifiable factors like eye appeal.
That’s a lecture sure to be met with an open-mouth, glazed-eye gaze so stupefied that it will make even the lecturer question the merit of what they're saying.
Whether formally or informally, market participants make judgments on the caliber of a card within its graded population, and those judgments can often impact the value at which the card sells relative to comps at auction. Think of it this way: grading companies have done probably ~90% of the heavy lifting by authenticating and assigning their numeric grades, but there are elements of a card’s appeal that fall outside the confines of the grading evaluation. Within that 10% beckons opportunity.
Heritage is the latest house to recognize that opportunity, introducing its Best-In-Class service last week not just for cards, but for the full spectrum of sports memorabilia. In cards, the Best-In-Class evaluation compares the card to other versions of the card in the same grade to determine if it is among the very most visually appealing examples in the grade - meaning there can be Best-In-Class PSA 1s just as there are Best–In-Class PSA 10s.
The objective is simple: unlock value at auction for those cards deemed to be deserving of a premium price relative to peers.
As it’s the auction house itself providing these designations, participants will take them with a grain of salt. Houses are incentivized to achieve high prices, but they should also recognize that the designations will ultimately be worthless if they're overused or seen to be lacking in credibility. In a hobby of astute market observers that are rarely shy with criticisms, credibility is everything.
Notably, the Heritage announcement coincided with last week’s PWCC rebrand to Fanatics Collect, including the rebranding of PWCC’s own eye appeal designations, which have been in effect since 2018. PWCC - now Fanatics - assigns designations for Average (top 30% relative to peers), Exceptional (top 15%), and Superior (top 5%) cards. Since May of 2021, sales of cards with eye appeal designations on the PWCC platform total over $35 million.
One benefit of offering these designations? It makes the cards stickier to the auction house.
Competing houses generally won’t be keen to emphatically advertise the might of another house’s designations, heightening the consignor's inclination to keep the card within the same ecosystem the next time it comes up for sale. However, that’s not to say cross-house sales never happen. At the end of June, Goldin sold a PSA 10 Fleer Jordan rookie with a PWCC-A designation. The lot title artfully dodged the mention of a competitor: “1986-87 Fleer #57 Michael Jordan Rookie Card - PSA GEM MT 10 - Top 30% Eye Appeal.” Goldin has sold just two other cards this year with mention of “Eye Appeal” in the lot title.
But do the designations actually add value when sold at the house that provided them?
Isolating the contribution of the designation is a challenge, particularly in cards that trade infrequently in markets that have moved significantly in both directions over the last four years. Moreover, to what degree can you really isolate the impact of the designation from the premium a bidder might pay without it, just on their own cognizance of the card’s appeal?
We can, however, look at a larger swath of data to begin to consider the impact, comparing those cards that sold with designations in PWCC’s Premier Auctions over the last four years (about 800 cards) to those that sold with no designation. Cards with appeal designations generated a significant premium in average price in 2021 and 2022, but that chasm tightened in 2023 and 2024 to date.
Evaluating the results on an event-by-event basis enables greater isolation of market conditions, but the sample sizes get much smaller in doing so, allowing for some outlier results to have significant impact. Still, in each Premier Auction event over the last four years, cards with designations generated an average premium of 43% over the auction lots without one. In only about a third of events, lots with a designation sold at an average price that was lower than the field.
Then, there’s the anecdotal evidence. Perhaps most notable is the $840,000 sale of a PWCC-S 1986 Fleer Jordan card in July of 2021. That sale, over $500,000 greater than the sales immediately preceding and succeeding it, raised many skepticism-laden eyebrows. But extremes aside, there are myriad examples of a card with an eye appeal designation raising conspicuous bumps on an otherwise languid price chart:
Yet, there are plenty of instances of sales that are decidedly ho-hum. An endless number of variables comprise the result achieved in any one auction sale, but secondary market card purveyors appear to be resolute in their commitment to add another ingredient to the cauldron.
Appeal designations aren’t limited to auction house providers. Mike Baker Authentication has developed a presence in the hobby, particularly at PWCC but also at Goldin. MBA’s diamond-based designations evaluate similar criteria, ultimately seeking to clarify the hierarchy of cards that rest within any given numerical grade. Still, we await the arrival of the eager entrepreneur, currently rubbing his hands together and readying a pitch for another layer of evaluation based on the idea that not all Heritage Best-In-Class or Fanatics-Superior or MBA Gold Diamond cards are equal in quality. Best-of-the-Best Authentication. If your card is of sufficient appeal, they’ll entomb it in a piece of the Aggro Crag from Nickelodeon GUTS.
Move over, “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.” We’re headed right for “Six Degrees of Authentication.”
The Heritage Best-In-Class service will not focus exclusively on cards, offering evaluation of bats, photos, and jerseys. In some cases, the evaluation will consider the historical significance of the item, a quality that in the past was only informally marketed and passively understood. As with everything in the sports collectibles world: nuance is everything. Understanding that, Heritage will publish analysis accompanying its Best-In-Class designations.
Perhaps the best solution to the evaluation arms race is a tribal council of hobby voices trusted to deliver an impartial deliberation on the merits of a particular item. There’s a free YouTube series pitch sure to garner thousands of views. We give that idea a PWCC-A. In the top 30%, sure, but certainly not in Exceptional or Superior territory.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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Despite featuring many of the sporting world’s most beloved, global superstars over the past two decades, tennis memorabilia is often buried in the catalog of large, multi-sport auction events. This problem was quickly remedied in golf to great success by Golden Age and The Golf Auction, which have cultivated engaged audiences of golf memorabilia enthusiasts. The right lots find the right collectors, with focused storytelling parsing the idiosyncrasies and special characteristics of each item and moment. Now, Prestige Memorabilia’s Tennis Auction is seeking to do the same for the sport of tennis.
The emerging house held its first event in the fall of 2023, and in its second event at the start of 2024, made waves with the $118,206 sale of Rafael Nadal’s match-used racket from the 2007 French Open Final. This weekend, the 2024 Legends Auction closes, featuring a memorable assortment of tennis memorabilia from some of the sport’s most celebrated stars, both young and old. In partnership with The Tennis Auction, let's preview the action.
Throughout the 2000s, Roger Federer staked his claim on grass and hardcourts like no player had before. Between 2005 and 2014, Federer won a combined 12 Australian Open, US Open, and Wimbledon titles. That historic run included a stretch where Federer took home the championship across all three of those storied majors in both 2006 and 2007.
Despite an illustrious career that positioned Federer at the top of the tennis world, the clay courts of the French Open remained his Achilles heel. Between 2006-2008, Federer made the French Open final three straight times, falling to Rafael Nadal each time. In 2009, Nadal was upset in the fourth round and Federer took advantage to finally secure a French Open. One might think that this victory would spur Federer to the type of success in the French Open that he had found at the other three majors.
It did not. As a matter of fact, Federer only appeared in one more French Open final after that 2009 victory. That final came in 2011, now well over a decade ago, which makes memorabilia from the days of Federer’s French Open success some of the most rare and valuable on the market today.
In 2020, a racket used by Federer in that 2011 French Open final appeared at auction, and the perfect storm of rarity and tennis history combined to deliver a new tennis racket record…at least for a men’s player. In 2017, Bonhams sold the racket used by Billie Jean King in the “Battle of the Sexes” match for $125,000, but no racket used by a men’s tennis player had ever sold for more than $50,000. That changed when the hammer fell on the French Open Federer racket which closed for $55,350.
Another racket from that final returned to auction two years later, this one with a photomatch letter (but no graphics) from Resolution, selling for $50,400. Now, we fast forward two years to this weekend to find out how the market has evolved with another racket from that final, this one accompanied by a photomatch letter and photomatch graphics from Resolution. Given the existence of two other rackets from the match, the heightened authenticity is of paramount importance.
For the better part of two decades, Rafael Nadal has been one of the most accomplished and popular athletes in Nike’s stable. With that kind of tenure, an athlete develops an impressive resume. One way Nike celebrates greatness - usually of a specific sneaker model - is with a “What The” colorway. “What The” sneakers typically mix bits and pieces from popular colorways of a model., creating a Frankenstein shoe of sorts that pays homage to predecessors.
For one of its favorite athletes, Nike created a special “What The Rafa" sneaker for Rafael Nadal, using the Nike Air Zoom Cage 3 Glove as the canvas. The shoes combined an element from the sneakers worn in each of Nadal’s 11 French Open titles to that point. The shoes dropped at retail in 2019 in highly limited quantities, quickly selling out. The retail price was $140, but in recent months, pairs have sold for more than $300 on StockX, with one pair even reaching $952.
Those pairs, though, lacked one essential ingredient: the clay stains from the grounds of Roland Garros. Offered this weekend is a match-worn pair of the “What The Rafas,” used by the Spanish maestro himself to slide his way through points in the 2019 French Open with precision and generational expertise. Nadal would ultimately win the tournament, earning his 12th title. The match-worn sneakers have provenance to Nadal’s foundation and a possible photomatch to his third round match with David Goffin. The “What The Rafas” matched to the fourth round and quarterfinal matches sold alongside a racket (unknown match, MEARS LOA) from the tournament for $79,200 in June of 2022. A photomatched pair of sneakers from the quarterfinal of a 2014 French Open Run, which also ended with a title, sold twice in 2023 for $13,200 and $15,240. The winning bidder this weekend will be hoping to bolster the case for this pair with a conclusive match, as the colorway is likely the most notable in Nadal’s career.
With the iconic era of Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal drawing to a close, tennis has been in search of its next wave of superstar talent.
Enter Carlos Alcaraz.
The 21-year-old star from Spain has already made the ascent from prodigy to champion, with a pair of majors secured in the trophy case. In 2022, Alcaraz defeated another rising star in Casper Ruud for the US Open title. The win not only earned Alcaraz his first Grand Slam and a claim as the youngest men’s US Open champion in more than 30 years, but also made him the youngest player to achieve an ATP #1 ranking.
The historic US Open victory cemented Alcaraz’s position at the top of a sport undergoing significant transition. Between the 2004 and 2024 Australian Opens, 80 Grand Slam tournaments were played. Remarkably, in 65 of those events, or 82% of the time, the winner was either Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, or Rafael Nadal. The dominance displayed by these three legends will be nearly impossible to replicate over the next 20 years. However, the upcoming generation of talent now has a prime opportunity to shine as the legends of the 2000s and 2010s approach retirement.
With the potential catalyst of a historic career mixed with an already impressive array of victories, collectors and speculators alike are flocking into the Alcaraz memorabilia market. He has already become a fixture within the luxury sports industry, having penned partnerships with Louis Vuitton and Calvin Klein while wearing a Rolex during trophy presentations. There have been match-used Alcaraz rackets that are not photomatched which have sold for more than $10,000. Earlier this year, a signed tennis ball from the 2022 US Open with unconfirmed match-use sold for $1,524, exceeding its estimate by more than 50%. The most expensive item from the US Open tournament to sell at auction thus far were the sneakers worn by Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. The Nike Vapor Pros, signed and accompanied by a photomatch, sold for $15,120 in February 2023.
Alcaraz has even reinvigorated a tennis card market that sat dormant throughout the 2010s. In 2022, NetPro announced a card licensing deal with Alcaraz after the company had taken a nearly 20-year hiatus. The cards sold out within days of their release with various additions selling for hundreds of dollars across secondary markets.
If the career of Carlos Alcaraz remains on its current trajectory, one could hypothesize that valuations for apparel and equipment from the 2022 US Open will see ongoing appreciation. Featured in this tennis-centric auction is a Nike wristband worn by Alcaraz during that historic final. The cotton, white band features wear and prominently displays a black Nike swoosh. It’s paired with an LOA from Mears and is also backed by an image of the lucky fan who caught the wristband with Alcaraz visible in the background.
The United States hasn’t won a Davis Cup since 2007. Perhaps that’s why the global event is not as popular stateside in recent years as it is elsewhere. The year following that last U.S. triumph, Spain reclaimed the title, a feat which they would repeat in 2009 as well, that time in front of a home crowd in Barcelona. In 2009, Spain dismantled Croatia 5-0 in the final, thanks in part to a straight-set singles victory for Rafael Nadal against Tomas Berdych.
In that match, Nadal wore a custom Nike ensemble in Spanish colors, including his Courtballistec 1.3 sneakers, which were photomatched to the occasion by Resolution. Along with those sneakers, his Nike polo shirt and wristbands are set for auction this weekend. While the Davis Cup has been around since 1900, the auction block hasn’t seen a heavy volume of match-worn material. The results for lesser material are indicative of the appetite for relics of international competition relating to global icons.
For instance, a match-issued Roger Federer Switzerland polo sold for $2,820 last year. That style was worn for the 2012 Olympics and 2014 Davis Cup, a silver medal and champion performance respectively. A Nadal warm-up jacket, backpack, and signed wristbands from the 2011 Davis Cup sold for $2,760 in 2022. But these aren’t items worn during competitive play, much less a finals match.
It’s difficult to draw parallels between memorabilia from this event, which is more unique, and memorabilia from individual tournament efforts. Still, photomatched sneakers from even lesser individual events frequently find mid-four-figure territory, with more momentous occasions pushing into five figures as highlighted above.
Novak Djokovic has been so dominant for so long that sometimes his losses are more notable than his wins. No loss was more jaw-dropping in the tennis world than a Round of 32 loss to Luca Nardi at Indian Wells this year. Though it might be surprising - even at this advanced age - Djokovic is human, not an unshakeable tennis robot.
From that shock loss came these Djokovic match-worn and signed sneakers, with Djokovic photographed executing his signature. Relative to those of his chief rivals, the market for Djokovic-worn memorabilia is underdeveloped. Key rackets that have surfaced at auction have achieved similar heights in results, but results for match-worn sneakers and apparel are quite limited. We’ve identified just one other auction sale of a pair of Djokovic-worn sneakers: a pair of signed Adidas sneakers from 2015 Wimbledon sold earlier this year for $11,590 after 20 bids. The sneakers were authenticated by MEARS for use but not related with any particular match. The result was perhaps an indication of hopes it was final-used against Federer but potentially also recognition of limited chances to buy Djokovic material.
In case a reminder was necessary: Djokovic stands two ahead of Nadal on the all-time Slam leaderboard, a gap more likely to expand than contract in the coming years.
Before there was Fed, The Joker, or Rafa, there was “Pistol Pete”.
When Pete Sampras retired in 2002, he did so on a high note, defeating rival and fellow American Andre Agassi in the US Open Championship to claim his 14th major. That illustrious career placed Sampras at the top, besting Roy Emerson’s 12 majors which had stood as the record for nearly three decades.
For the modern tennis fan who has been privileged with the age of Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal, it’s easy to overlook 14 majors when it now takes 20 to break into the top three. For a true fan who can appreciate success in relevance to its era, Pete Sampras epitomized a golden age in American tennis, one that the country has been trying to recapture over the last 20 years. Unlike many pros today whose game can often be defined by one or two characteristics, Sampras played with an all-around skill set, consistently pulling from a unique bag of tricks that made him a headache to play and a joy to watch. The powerful and aggressive style of play Sampras displayed throughout the early 1990s would give way in the 2000s to a game that emphasized sophistication and precision. While Sampras found success across all four majors, winning all at least twice with the exception of the French Open, it was the grass at Wimbledon where he truly dominated. Between 1993-2000, Sampras won seven Wimbledon titles in eight years. That historic run included a stretch between 1997-2000 that saw him secure a 31-match win streak at the storied event.
Wilson Pro Staff rackets were the tool-of-choice for Sampras, who made various adjustments to his swing throughout his career but remained loyal to the brand for nearly 20 years. Even before the tennis racket market had matured in both values and volumes to where it stands today, rackets used by Pete Sampras were selling for thousands of dollars.
In 2013, a Sampras racket dated to the late 1990s sold for $7,680 and stands as his most expensive equipment ever sold at auction. Less than one year later, a signed racket used by Sampras in a 2012 match sold for $5,294. The racket showcased by The Tennis Auction is accompanied by a letter from Jeff Schwartz, Sampras’ agent, with a note that emphasizes the limited supply. In the letter, Jeff writes “Not many people have Pete’s racquet as he only goes thru about 12-15 per year.” Sampras was known for using the same racket throughout the entirety of a match and even playing with a single racket across multiple tournaments. In today’s game, where players carry up to 10 rackets and some stars are known for using many of them throughout the course of a single match, the limited supply of strings used by Sampras could prove advantageous as the sport continues to become more mainstream within the collectibles market.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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This is the latest edition of a multi-part blog series produced in partnership with The Realest on the key events and factors shaping the music memorabilia market. The Realest is the first dedicated authentication standard and marketplace for entertainment memorabilia.
Is a Snoop Dogg-smoked blunt the cannabis equivalent of a Babe Ruth-used baseball bat?
We may need to wait a few decades to find out if it can live up to that lofty analogy, but the journey begins next month.
Let’s take a step back for a second.
In both our report on the Music Memorabilia Market and in recent posts in this blog series, we’ve highlighted a key market shortcoming: the market for the memorabilia of living artists is relatively limited.
Several factors contribute to that shortcoming. First, to date, most of the top tier memorabilia that comes to market comes either from estate sales when an artist passes or from single-owner charity sales. The latter has been more limited than the former. Additionally, memorabilia coming from other sources often suffers from limitations of authenticity, relying predominantly on some combination of LOAs and provenance.
The first factor results mostly from a lack of awareness or a lack of regard for the opportunity presented to artists by their personal inventory of memorabilia. That opportunity, however, has become extremely difficult to ignore with the rise of collectible markets and the frequency with which auction sales make headlines in today’s environment. Even the most passive artist would take notice if they saw a guitar of theirs sell for six-figures or a lyric sheet for five, all while participating in none of the proceeds.
Always on the cutting edge, Snoop Dogg has recognized that opportunity, partnering with the Realest to bring a selection of his memorabilia to the auction block. His pursuit of the memorabilia revenue stream provides an important cosign on two levels: 1) he’s an icon and legend of the hip-hop and broader music & entertainment space, and 2) his successes in business and investment pursuits are well documented. Additionally, his visible promotion of the event (to an Instagram following of 87 million people) creates a meaningful distinction from all those auction lots that boast provenance to an artist without the artist acknowledging the item or event’s existence.
In true Snoop Dogg fashion, the auction event is fittingly labeled “Tha Shiznit.” Before diving deeper into its contents, let’s examine the existing landscape.
Are there other examples of artists directing their own memorabilia sales?
An artist’s participation in memorabilia sales is not a totally novel concept, even if the concept seems to be wildly underused. Some of the larger events readily endorsed by a living artist in the past have been launched with charitable intent. For instance, earlier last year, Mark Knopfler’s guitar collection sold at Christie’s, grossing nearly £9 million in total sales, including 23 six-figure results. The Dire Straits frontman auctioned the collection with no less than 25% of the hammer price received to be split among three charitable organizations.
Examples like the Knopfler Collection are more indicative of the legacy market.
For a more contemporary example, we can look to one of Snoop’s contemporaries. Pharrell auctioned off a selection of his memorabilia in conjunction with the launch of his auction platform, JOOPITER, with some eye opening results for items, including some that found their way into Drake’s hands. In that case, provenance provided strong credibility for the initial sale, particularly since it came from the platform founder’s collection. However, that provenance may become murky after the initial sale; items from other consignors on the platform are said to be both appraised and authenticated, though the method of authentication is unclear.
Importantly, Snoop Dogg’s partnership with The Realest addresses both factors contributing to a shortcoming in the modern music memorabilia market. As we addressed, he has recognized the opportunity, but he’s also bringing memorabilia to market in a way that ensures authenticity at the initial sale and afterwards, building credibility for those items longer term. All items have been through the Realest’s TruEst witness-based authentication process, in which the artist’s ownership of the items is guaranteed by the company, with holographic technology used for unique identification on an ongoing basis.
What have been some of the most expensive Snoop sales? How were they authenticated?
When compared to other top-selling musicians and rappers, the collectible market for Snoop Dogg is still in its infancy. In 2021, Julien’s sold a painting that was composed and signed by the man himself for $96,000. To provide further context in just how underdeveloped the Snoop Dogg market was, that painting entered the charity auction with a pre-sale estimate between $1,500 - $3,000. While charity auctions carry an asterisk for valuation purposes, the sale still delivered a breakout result for an underappreciated market.
In 2011, one decade before the artwork sale, Julien’s sold the ensemble worn by Snoop Dogg in the music video for “Sensual Seduction” for $3,520 against an estimate of $500 - $700. Today, that video-worn costume would appraise at a significant multiple over the 2011 sale price, with the auction hosted by the Realest proving the evidence. Take for example the outfit worn by Snoop at Wrestlemania in 2023. The velour suit isn’t tied to a music-related event and wasn’t worn in a music video but is still nearing $2,000 through more than 35 bids.
If there’s one commonality across the current leaderboard of Snoop Dogg sales, it’s the standard of authenticity. The painting came directly from Snoop Dogg while the suit came with a letter of authenticity from the GRAMMY Foundation, where it has previously sold in a charity auction. Provenance and LOAs have ruled, as has often been the case in the entertainment market.
There is a clear appetite for Snoop memorabilia but the supply has been virtually non-existent. Earlier this year, Goldin sold a signed and framed album display of Snoop’s debut studio album Doggystyle for $1,037. That particular display attracted 27 bids, while an IGS-graded cassette tape from the 1993 album sold in 2023 for $2,160. Snoop Dogg’s card from the 1995 Smash Hits Stickers set is viewed as his premier trading card, with values and volume both seeing a surge in recent years. Between September 2021 and October 2023, the PSA-graded population of Snoop cards from the ‘95 set increased from 1 to 256. The increase in supply has led to a pullback in prices, which peaked above $1,000 in between 2021-2022 but have since retreated below $750 for mint copies.
While the Snoop market has been limited to date, the same could be said for nearly all living musicians. One trend that we highlighted in our inaugural Music Memorabilia Report was the importance of single-owner sales direct from the artist or their estate. Whether it was Prince or Freddie Mercury, top prices have continuously come from events dedicated to a specific artist. This format of sale is rarely used for a living artist which makes Tha Shiznit a unique case study and true barometer for one of the most marketable and recognized names in pop culture today.
What kind of items are in the Realest Snoop Dogg auction? What are some of the sale prices achieved for similar items?
Phase 1 of Tha Shiznit closes this Sunday. Both that phase and the rest of the auction are replete with a wide variety of Snoop Dogg items, ranging from Wrestlemania-worn outfits to setlists to a Snoop-smoked blunt (yes, really). The breadth of offerings is representative of Snoop’s As you can imagine, based on the limited nature of the Snoop market to date, most of these items don’t really have comps or precedents, especially the blunt. The comparables that do exist provide evidence that an active marketplace backed by solid provenance and authentication can deliver premiums.
The Snoop Dogg Funko Pop! #301 provides a telling example. The first edition Funko has already garnered more than 30 bids, pushing the price to $556. This particular Funko Pop! came directly from Funko and was the first to come off the production line. The vinyl figurine was the first to be signed by Snoop, and it now resides in protective plastic with the backing of TRuEST Authentication. For comparison, the most expensive sealed Funko Pop! from that same #301 edition to sell this year realized $282 via eBay in March. As we emphasized with the importance of direct sourcing from an artist, the storytelling and provenance of an item carries significant weight and can heavily influence prices.
Art, culture, and music met on a collision course as the acclaimed artist KAWS designed a reimagined picture disc with album art in celebration of Interscope Records’ 30th anniversary. The values found across the various print runs vary dramatically depending on the appearance of Snoop’s penmanship – and what exactly he penned.
The mass-produced unsigned version can be found across a range of marketplaces for less than $50. There is a limited-edition version that was signed by Snoop with only 100 copies in existence. Those signed versions have fetched upwards of $200 and can be found on eBay, where they often transact between $125 and $150. Occasionally, the signed copies also appear in modern art galleries, both on display and for purchase. Finally, there’s the “Snoop Doggy Dogg” special edition. This unique run includes just ten album covers and discs, all signed “Snoop Doggy Dogg.” The “Doggy Dogg” signature era dates through the early-to-mid 1990s before shifting to the simplified moniker “Snoop Dogg.” Tha Shiznit features four of the ten records, all of which are poised to sell for more than $200.
One item that will face a relatively high bar: a handwritten setlist. The setlist at the Realest comes from an unknown show, though its provenance to Snoop Dogg is indisputable. Last year, a torn, handwritten setlist from a September 2008 show, accompanied by a ticket stub, sold for $2,640 with buyer’s premium. That setlist was authenticated by JSA. The setlist in Tha Shiznit has amassed over 25 bids from 14 bidders, reaching over $600 with several days remaining. Given the lack of specific dating, a result on par with or close to the 2023 result would arguably represent a healthy signal for the provenance and accompanying authentication.
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Phase 1 of Tha Shiznit closes this Sunday, June 2nd on The Realest’s website. The next phase closes on June 16th. Bidders will have to wait until then for their chance to win the Snoop-smoked blunt, which has to be the cannabis equivalent of a Babe Ruth game-used baseball bat.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
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The European football season is coming to a close. Manchester City won a fourth straight Premier League title, Real Madrid is marching towards another Champions League victory, and in just a few short months, they’ll prepare to do it all over again. Sometimes in football, it seems like the only things that change are the kits.
As is tradition, clubs have begun to reveal their new kits for the season ahead, soon relegating this year’s edition to clearance sales. But this summer’s bargain-buy could become a $500 prize years down the road. Unbeknownst to many, vintage football jerseys - even the replicas - have become a globally popular collectible category.
Those unaware here in the United States might soon familiarize themselves ahead of the 2026 World Cup. At least that’s part of the thesis fueling The Chernin Group’s $38.5 million investment in Classic Football Shirts, a UK-based seller of all varieties of vintage football jerseys. While the company may be lesser known to residents of the US, it's a staple in England, generating nearly $24 million in revenue in the 12 months ending June 30, 2022. Those figures grew from humble beginnings in 2006 when the company started with maxed-out credit cards and a goal of selling ten shirts daily. That meager daily volume has now grown to 2,000 - 2,500 shirts.
So why football jerseys? And what drives their value?
Unlike in American sports, clubs release a new set of jerseys every season. That practice has obvious commercial appeal for the clubs, who can reliably sell new jerseys to the same customers annually. It also ensures that less popular jerseys subject fans to only one year of pain; meanwhile, Broncos fans are stuck with their newly released atrocities for seasons to come, and the Patriots continue to look like a franchise built in Madden Create-A-Team, with uniforms as devoid of appeal as the offensive roster.
From a collectability standpoint though, a potent, nostalgic association with a specific season is more important than any of these factors. Fans can vividly picture the jersey on a player's back when he scored that pivotal goal. Those images are burned indelibly into our memories for a lifetime, and owning the jersey becomes a physical expression of that memory. In that way, nostalgia can be a significant driver of demand, as it is in many other collectible categories.
There's more to demand for football jerseys than nostalgia alone. Consider a few factors:
Usage. Not surprisingly, a market hierarchy exists relating to usage, ranging from game-worn at the top to match-issued to simple replicas available in retail settings. While the worn items are most valuable, it’s the retail jerseys that comprise the vast majority of shirts sold.
Club. The size of a club’s following and its global appeal matter; generally, a Real Madrid jersey will attract more demand than a Gillingham jersey. But greater size can also mean greater production…
Season. The associated season contributes incremental value - a jersey from the “Galacticos” Madrid era of Ronaldo, Zidane, and Roberto Carlos cultivates a stronger nostalgic pull than a less memorable and less trophy-laden era.
But it’s not just about on-pitch success and global clout. Last, but not least....
Aesthetics. Because football jerseys sit at a unique intersection of streetwear and nostalgia, pure aesthetics play a role. Some jerseys are iconic and valuable simply because they look incredible, with bonus points awarded for memorable and likable sponsors. Look no further than the Nintendo or 7-Up-sponsored Fiorentina kits of the ‘90s. The club hasn’t won the Italian league since the 1960s, but collectors still dearly covet those jerseys, which command more than $500 when authentic versions surface.
As with other markets, demand is just one component shaping values. For a jersey to be valuable, it has to be both desirable and scarce. Time does most of the heavy lifting for those jerseys of the ‘80s and ‘90s, with most jerseys worn into deterioration, leaving behind scant supply in strong condition. Naturally, the population of mint jerseys from vintage eras is smaller than the population of those exhibiting greater wear. Another variable is the inclusion of a player’s name on the back. Some players are inextricably linked with a certain season’s jersey, but the supply of specific player jerseys is generally lower than the mass-produced plain versions.
Among more modern jerseys, lower production of popular designs can fail to satiate demand. Lower production can result from a few factors. Manufacturers may produce away or third kits in lower quantities than primary, home kits. Alternatively, a club or nation might not be globally popular enough to merit significant production runs. But when a design is well received, as Nigeria’s 2018 World Cup shirt was, the scarcity of the jersey quickly becomes a story, further increasing the desirability.
Few are better attuned to the forces of supply and demand that shape the vintage football jersey market than the team at Classic Football Shirts. Though the company is not the sole player in a popular space, with others such as Cult Kits offering competition, it has enjoyed significant success, achieving profitability each year since its inception. While the football shirt category shares some common ground with the sneaker market, Classic Football Shirts is no StockX or GOAT. Like those players, the company brought retail familiarity to a secondary market good, while also serving as an arbiter of authenticity in a market full of fakes and reissues.
But StockX and GOAT are peer-to-peer marketplaces that allow sellers to set prices and buyers to submit bids. Classic Football Shirts purchases jerseys directly from sellers before offering them at a markup - a more traditional retail model in an untraditional category. In finance terms, the company is less broker and more dealer.
Inventory management, then, is crucial. Marketing the right products to the right audiences in the right moments unlocks greater profit. But not all product leaves the CFS inventory as quickly as it arrives. The company, knowing the market as it does and understanding collectible market tailwinds, holds a Manchester-based vault of true rarities, many match-worn. While the company uses some of those jerseys for marketing and PR, in a world where Maradona and Messi jerseys command millions, it's not hard to imagine there are handsome gains embedded in its collection.
If this market is to mature and grow as sneakers did, it will require change. At present, the incumbent competitors essentially treat every jersey as a wholly unique, 1-of-1 item. There's merit to that approach, particularly with vintage items, and it makes sense in a physical retail environment (CFS currently has two such locations, plus a new NYC pop-up). Perhaps that's the vision, with more physical locations said to be an objective of the investment funding. But in the world of e-commerce, it scales poorly. Consumers must wade through a messy and complicated landscape of product listings in hopes of finding their grail. It's a perpetual scavenger hunt with no assurance of reward.
The massive unlock for StockX in sneakers was the single product page. On one page, collectors could find all the listings in every size for a specific sneaker, along with relevant sales data for market insight. Importantly, they could favorite that page and receive notifications when new offers were posted, ensuring they wouldn't miss out. This setup removed significant friction from the market, enabling participants to transact more efficiently and with greater confidence.
Organization and data are noticeably absent from the vintage football jersey market, as are more universal standards of condition and authenticity. Classic Football Shirts authenticates the shirt, assesses the condition, and sets the price. That do-it-all approach demands a lot of trust from consumers, particularly when pricing data is limited. Whether the market can sustain third-party authenticators and graders or intermediary marketplaces remains to be seen, as does the potential appeal to a StockX or authenticators in other categories.
Though collectors in the United States tried to express a thesis on global and obsessive soccer culture through cards over the last few years, it seems an obvious fixture of the match-going public was an attractive alternative all along. One thing is clear: by the time this season's jerseys enter the "vintage" category, the market for football jerseys will have changed dramatically.
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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.
