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News & Trends

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Index Update: The Week Closing 9/23/2022
September 26, 2022

Index Update: The Week Closing 9/23/2022

By 
Dylan Dittrich
An update on the Altan Insights 100 as of September 23rd, 2022.
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Categories
Trades and Trends: September 23, 2022
Market Commentary

Trades and Trends: September 23, 2022

By 
Keenan Flack

Join Altan Insights as we highlight trading activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolio. We are pausing our Trades and Trends coverage of Otis until their integration with Public is complete.

Rally

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 101

Assets that stayed the same: 159

Assets that traded negatively: 78

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 61

Assets that stayed the same: 163

Assets that traded negatively: 112

Collectable

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 48

Assets that stayed the same: 107

Assets that traded negatively: 51

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 31

Assets that stayed the same: 78

Assets that traded negatively: 97

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Index Update: The Week Closing 9/16/2022
Market Commentary

Index Update: The Week Closing 9/16/2022

By 
Dylan Dittrich

Last Week: 807.4

This Week: 777.57

Performance Last Week: -3.7%

Performance Year-to-Date: -25.2%

Quarter-to-Date: -3.7%

Top 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. Michael Jordan Rookie Jersey (Collectable) +36.8%

2. Michael Jordan Signing Day Jersey (Rally) +24.1%

3. 2013 National Treasures Giannis Antetokounmpo RPA (Rally) +15.5%

Bottom 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. Magic Johnson Larry Bird Dual Logoman (Collectable) -47.5%

2. DOB and Arrows: Patchwork Skulls (Otis) -40.8%

3. Laser Eyes Bored Ape 4612 (Rally) -35.0%

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

All information provided by Altan Insights is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Altan Insights does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index.  Altan Insights is not an investment advisor and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other investment product or vehicle.  Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by Altan Insights to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. Closing prices for Altan Insights indices are calculated by Altan Insights based on the closing price of the individual constituents of the index as set by their primary marketplace.

These materials have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. Altan Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. Altan Insights is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content.

Sotheby's Invictus Part I & II: All Game-Worn is Not Equal
Auctions

Sotheby's Invictus Part I & II: All Game-Worn is Not Equal

By 
Dylan Dittrich

In case you somehow missed it, and - truly - it would be hard to, Sotheby's sold Michael Jordan's jersey from Game 1 of the 1998 NBA Finals for $10,090,000. The incredible result towers over the estimate of $3,000,000 to $5,000,000, and spectators were awestruck to watch the bidding quickly ascend into record territory.

This is now the single most expensive piece of sports memorabilia (cards excluded as a separate category under the banner of "sports collectibles") ever sold and the first eight-figure piece of sports memorabilia, swiftly joining the first eight-figure sports card in that territory. Once again, the buying power for the most esteemed sports collectibles proved to be entering a realm previously reserved only for the finest of art.

As has been the case for much of 2022 though, the gap between the "best of the best" and the rest of the market grows wider. Grails continue to charge higher against a backdrop of more challenged market trends. The enthusiasm for the next tier of sports memorabilia is surely more robust than it was last year, but not as robust as the headlines in the highest tier might suggest.

As illustration of this reality, we applied metrics common in art auctions to the Invictus sales as Sotheby's. The Jordan jersey was not the only asset on offer Thursday, and the field was veritable: worn items from the likes of Kobe, Manning, Federer, Nadal, Ali, Prefontaine, and more. Against the auction house's estimates, though, most of those items fell short. Estimate-setting is both science and art (and often reflective of consignment negotiations), so judging performance against those estimates should be taken with a grain of salt as a judge of market health. Still, it can provide some insight.

We compare the estimates to the hammer price, rather than sold price with buyer's premium - estimate ranges issued by major auction houses are typically not inclusive of BP.

As illustrated, the majority of lots in the auction hammered below the low estimate or went entirely unsold. Just two items exceeded the high estimate. If you were to include premium, 7 of those lots would be in range, albeit at the low end.

The hammer ratio is the ratio of the hammer price to the low estimate. On average, the events produced a 1.06 hammer ratio, which would be considered healthy, but that was driven largely by stellar results for the Jordan jersey and Rafael Nadal's sneakers from the US Open. 11 of 14 lots delivered a hammer ratio below 1.

Again, examining performance versus estimates is a highly imperfect way to judge market health. Still, these results do tell us that the memorabilia appetite isn't so broad and so ravenous that it'll engage at any level, even when guided by estimates. With the result achieved for the marquee item, though, it's difficult to call the event anything but a success.

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Trades and Trends: September 17, 2022
Market Commentary

Trades and Trends: September 17, 2022

By 
Keenan Flack

Join Altan Insights as we highlight trading activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolio. We are pausing our Trades and Trends coverage of Otis until their integration with Public is complete.

Rally

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 61

Assets that stayed the same: 163

Assets that traded negatively: 112

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 62

Assets that stayed the same: 183

Assets that traded negatively: 89

Collectable

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 31

Assets that stayed the same: 78

Assets that traded negatively: 97

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 34

Assets that stayed the same: 111

Assets that traded negatively: 61

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Action Action: Golden Age Golf Clubs Auction Preview
Auctions

Action Action: Golden Age Golf Clubs Auction Preview

By 
Bradley Calleja

This weekend, Golden Age Auctions will close an event that features approximately 2,000 total golf clubs spread across more than 500 lots. The auction acts as a museum and a time capsule, with clubs that showcase centuries of golf history and craftsmanship ranging from Hugh Philp to Scotty Cameron. This is the first auction hosted by Golden Age since their record-breaking Spring event which tallied $6.6 million in total sales and delivered the most expensive golf item ever sold at auction with the $5.2 million Tiger Slam Irons. In the midst of what has been the strongest single year for the sports memorabilia market, we preview the lots that could reach head-turning valuations while also taking a figurative walk through the history of collectible clubs.

Important Collections

The Ex-Jeff Ellis Collection

One of the preeminent golf collections ever sold at auction, the Jeff Ellis Collection once captured headlines when Sotheby's sold his lineup of antique clubs for a multi-million-dollar price tag in the early 2000s. These clubs, now scattered amongst various collectors, make infrequent appearances at auction and this event by Golden Age features unmatched volume from the historic collection. In total, there are 48 lots featuring clubs that were once held within the Ellis portfolio and the range is simply astonishing. Included in the auction and returning to the public market for the first time since 2007 is possibly the finest set of hickory shafted irons in existence - the 1933 Bobby Jones set. This lineup of irons is not only tied to a golf legend who's influence is still present today on courses around the world, but also a crucial turning point within golf history and carry the weight of being one of the last representatives from the age of wooden clubs and the final chapter of an era before steel and pyrotone would dominate the market.

Vintage Clubs

If you were creating a Mount Rushmore of 19th-century clubmakers, no one would question if you etched Willie Park, John Jackson, John Allan, and Hugh Philp in stone. While Philp stands in a tier of his own (more on him below), it is an impossible task to find an auction that presents such an assemblage of expert craftsmen. With more than 20 clubs from the 1800s, the auction highlights a span of work that includes historic hickory and one-piece drivers.

Lots to Watch

Lot #1: Tiger Woods' Personal Red Dot Scotty Cameron Backup Putter

When you think of the iconic athletes and their tool of choice, there are a limited number of legendary duos.

Babe Ruth and Hillerich & Bradsby bats, Michael Jordan and Nike sneakers, or Wayne Gretzky and a Titan hockey stick. One combo that fits the bill is Tiger Woods and Scotty Cameron. Soon after winning an NCAA championship in 1996, Tiger Woods migrated from an Odyssey Dual Force to a putter manufactured by Scotty Cameron. Over the course of his historic career, the red dot putter and Tiger became synonymous with golf greatness. Similar to greats like Gretzky, there are a plethora of mind-blowing stats and records from Tiger's peak seasons. Between 2002-2005, Tiger attempted 1,543 putts of three feet or less. He proceeded to make 1,540 of his putts within 36 inches, good for a rate of 99.8% while the PGA Tour average across that same time period was 96%. In 2008, Tiger sank 98% of his putts within five feet of the hole while the tour average settled closer to 90%. This weekend, Golden Age is set to sell a signed Scotty Cameron Red Dot Backup Putter, an idyllic representation of Tiger's prowess. This backup (or deadstock as our own Dylan Dittrich coined it) comes from a microscopic quantity of red dot Tiger putters to ever appear at public auction. If the putter itself is not rare enough, it carries the penmanship of the golf legend himself. For those unfamiliar with the golf memorabilia market, finding an authentic Tiger auto is a feat itself. Tiger and his team have been notoriously reserved when it comes to signing items and the overwhelming majority of Tiger autos are found on paper products like programs or in lesser cases, golf balls. One major flaw of collectible golf is the terrible canvas that is a golf ball. The dimples and spherical physique of a golf ball does not yield a reasonable population of clean signatures which makes collecting them an arduous and costly task. This Tiger Woods signature might be the cleanest on-club auto to ever appear at auction. It displays Tiger's matured penmanship, which connected his first and last name, a trend he started years into his career, and the visually impactful components, such as the letters T, G, W, and D are all crisp and seemingly unaffected by the textured clubface. The auto is perfectly framed, with precise centered between Tiger's initials and the iconic red dot. This is the first signed putter of its quality to appear at auction and could be the only in existence - factors that could contribute to an exciting evening of extending bidding.

Lot #2: Arnold Palmer's Legendary "Old Faithful" Putter

To call this the most impressive piece of Arnold Palmer memorabilia ever sold at auction might somehow still be an understatement. Aptly nicknamed 'The King' - Palmer rose to prominence with the onset of the television age and offered viewers an easy-to-love combination of charm and charisma. While his modest personality won over fans, he was busy winning PGA titles. Between 1955-1973, Palmer secured 62 PGA Tour wins including 7 major championships. One of his trusty tools of the trade was his collection of putters, which carried the moniker, 'Old Faithful'. The provenance of the putter is impressive and was given to 1964 Open Champion Tony Lema by Palmer himself. With a combination of certifiable authenticity and a connection to one of the game's most lovable characters, the club could find itself as the centerpiece of an impressive collection or even in the halls of one of golf's great museums.

Lot #3: Dwight Eisenhower's Clubs and ANGC Headcovers

World history meets golf history with this offering which features a personal set of golf clubs with Augusta National headcovers from the estate of Dwight Eisenhower. In 2011, Golden Age sold a similar set for $13,702 and those cubs are now a museum piece, displayed at the USGA Golf Museum and Library. The clubs currently on sale carry a facsimile signature of the late President, and the headcovers, while visibly worn, exhibit the distinct pantone green color made famous by the celebrated golf course. Eisenhower was a true ambassador for the game of golf and is rumored to have played more than 800 rounds of golf during his tenure in the Oval Office. The general turned Commander-in-Chief built lasting friendships with legends like Bobby Jones and Arnold Palmer and today, the Eisenhower cabin still stands on the property of Augusta National. This set of clubs and headcovers is currently priced at $8,952 and has garnered 18 bids heading into what should be an active weekend of bidding.

Lot #18: Infamous "Stolen" Scotty Cameron Bronze Putter

The 98th putter head...

Sometimes the backstory of an item is just as great as the collectible itself. The story behind this Scotty Cameron putter dates to 1997, when 97 solid copper club heads were stolen from the company's warehouse. The stolen heads were completed and awaiting final stamping to become Classic X models before they would hit the open market, but an act of thievery resulted in all the heads vanishing. Well, almost all. One of the putters had been kept separate from the group and was saved from certain melting by Robert (Bob) Bettinardi, an employee of Scotty Cameron, who would later go on to build his own golf equipment company. The demand for early Scotty Cameron putters has risen dramatically over the past decade but any collector would be hard pressed to find a golf club with a story quite as entertaining as this one. The bronze putter has attracted 24 bids and sits at $4,076.

Lot #10: Hugh Philp Long Nose Putter Personally Owned & Signed by JH Taylor

Know as the Stradivarius of golf, clubs from Hugh Philp truly are an example of art within athletics. Using the wood of fruit trees as his canvas, Philp combined an unrivaled level of craftsmanship with expert precision that ensured every detail within the club was perfected. The foremost club architect of the 19th century, Philp emerged as the leading figure within the golf equipment industry during a golden era for the game. Philp would become the official club-maker for St. Andrews and his work was sought-after by the top players around the world including 5-time Major Champion J.H. Taylor, who owned and inscribed the club set to sell at Golden Age. Similar to a Stradivarius violin, the counterfeit market for Hugh Philp clubs is active and the marketing of reproductions as originals is an unfortunate reality. This inscription from J.H. Taylor has been authenticated by JSA and the club itself bears all the attributes of an authentic and original 1800s masterpiece from Philip. From intricate details like grove depth to the wood layering, and the H. Philp stamp, the club carries full-proof evidence that supports its provenance.

Lot #39: Frank Sinatra 1963 Invitational Macgregor Copper Putter

When the 1963 Frank Sinatra Invitational was played at the Canyon Club in Palm Springs, California, in 1963, no one knew that 'inaugural' also meant 'final'. The first and only event was won by Frank Beard and while the tournament brought together elites from both the golf world and Hollywood, it ceased to exist after just a single tournament. Designed by Toney Penna, there were 150 copper plated Macgragor putters created and just as the tournament disappeared, so did the majority of the clubs. In 2013, one of these /150 clubs was uncovered at the estate sale of Bing Crosby's longtime accountant while most have never resurfaced. The demand for Sinatra-related memorabilia has diminished in recent years as these putters once consistently commanded at least $20,000 at auction, but the tournament gift still makes for an impressive collector piece that showcases a crossover between the game of golf and a Gilded Age legend.

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Index Update: The Week Closing 9/9/2022
Market Commentary

Index Update: The Week Closing 9/9/2022

By 
Dylan Dittrich

Last Week: 816.25

This Week: 807.40

Performance Last Week: -1.1%

Performance Year-to-Date: -22.4%

Quarter-to-Date: 0.0%

Top 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. Bobby Orr Photomatched Jersey (Collectable) +44.4%

2. 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson (Collectable) +14.8%

3. 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth (Collectable) +7.3%

Bottom 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. Bored Ape 7359 (Rally) -33.7%

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar NBA Point Record Ball (Collectable) -19.8%

3. 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle (Rally) -18.9%

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

All information provided by Altan Insights is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Altan Insights does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index.  Altan Insights is not an investment advisor and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other investment product or vehicle.  Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by Altan Insights to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. Closing prices for Altan Insights indices are calculated by Altan Insights based on the closing price of the individual constituents of the index as set by their primary marketplace.

These materials have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. Altan Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. Altan Insights is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content.

Trades and Trends: September 10, 2022
Market Commentary

Trades and Trends: September 10, 2022

By 
Bradley Calleja

Join Altan Insights as we highlight trading activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolio.

Rally

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 62

Assets that stayed the same: 183

Assets that traded negatively: 89

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 84

Assets that stayed the same: 159

Assets that traded negatively: 89

Collectable

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 34

Assets that stayed the same: 111

Assets that traded negatively: 61

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 61

Assets that stayed the same: 99

Assets that traded negatively: 46

Otis

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 1

Assets that stayed the same: 39

Assets that traded negatively: 10

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 5

Assets that stayed the same: 33

Assets that traded negatively: 9

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

NFL Kickoff: State of the Quarterback Card Market
Asset Class Insights

NFL Kickoff: State of the Quarterback Card Market

By 
Bradley Calleja

Heading into the 2022 NFL season, the quarterback card market is in a word, inconsistent. Record sales are surrounded by a broad decrease in volume and prices. So who are the QB's to watch as the season opens and where do they fit within the overall market? We breakdown the signal-callers and preview upcoming sales that could prove to be catalysts for some of the biggest names in football.

The G.O.A.T

Tom Brady

The best to ever do it is still sitting outside of the top 10 among sports card sales. After the earth-shattering sale of the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle via Heritage Auctions, the 10th highest sports card sale of all-time sits at $3.75 million while the most expensive Brady card ever sold went for $3.1 million in in June 2021. The card was a BGS graded copy of the Playoff Contenders Championship Ticket and the sale occurred at Leland's. There was a rumored private sale in February for a different BGS 9 graded example but we were unable to confirm with a broker of the sale to ensure its legitimacy. Heading into this season, the highest end of the Tom Brady market is signaling some slight weakness after a BGS 8.5 graded Championship Ticket failed to sell at Heritage Auctions in August. The card failed to attract a bid above its reserve of $1.75 million after multiple sales for similar cards sold for more than $2 million earlier this year. The last public sale for a BGS 8.5 was for $1.2 million at PWCC which is the lowest price paid for a like-graded copy since 2019. For those looking for data into the overall Brady market, no TB12 card sells publicly more than the 2000 Skybox Dominion Tom Brady & Giovanni Carmazzi Rookie card. With more than 600 recorded sales for ungraded base examples in the past year, prices have dropped dramatically, down from more than $150 each to under $60. The total rate of depreciation in the past year is -52.8% while in the last three months, values have dipped by -44.6% (Data via CardLadder).

Priced for Perfection

Patrick Mahomes

Unfair? Maybe.

But when you lead your team to four AFC Championship games in your first four years as a starting quarterback, expectations are going to be high. The prices for top-tier Mahomes cards have chased those expectations and in some cases, chased them right off the edge of a cliff. The six-month return for the Mahomes Index on CardLadder is -35.8% while sales volumes has continued to slide downward heading into the 2022 season. Mahomes will be hard-pressed to lead the Chiefs to their fifth straight title appearance without the help of his favorite target Tyreek Hill, who was shipped to Miami for a plethora of draft picks. Mahomes is currently the only NFL player represented in the list of top-ten sports card sales and his $4.3 million total realized for a 2017 National Treasures Shield Rookie Auto still stands as the most expensive confirmed football card sale by more than $1 million. Since the sale, no Mahomes card has come close to reaching a similar level and some of the most lucrative RPA variations such as Stars and Stripes have experienced price drops of 50% from their previous peaks.

Alright, now for the good news. The low end of the Mahomes is actually seeing some momentum right now as his most commonly transacted rookie base, the 2017 Donruss, has seen an average price increase of 21% over the past three months while PSA 10 graded examples have dropped -12% in that same time period. This separation between raw and gem mint cards is a common theme found between many younger active players and is due in large part to how quickly graded cards appreciated between 2020-2021 and how far they have fallen since.

Rising Stars

Justin Herbert

The newest member of the million-dollar card club is reaching Mahomes-like expectations and 2022 will need to be a breakout season for those prices to be justified. The seven-figure card is a 2020 Panini National Treasures Platinum NFL Shield which is already priced at $1.26 million through 22 bids at Goldin. The record-breaking card will sell this coming weekend and is an impressive example of how much the Herbert market has appreciated in the past year. The exact card sold for $550,000 in a confirmed private transaction in August 2021. The card was sold raw and is now graded BGS 8.5 with a perfect 10 for the autograph. Prices for raw base Herbert Prizm cards have fallen -70% from their 2020 highs but have stabilized in recent months. The ungraded values are down only -1% in the last quarter while PSA 10 graded examples have actually increased by 3.7% in that same period.

Josh Allen

The sports betting market is bullish on Josh Allen and the card market is following their lead. Currently, Allen is the frontrunner to win league MVP with +700 odds while the Buffalo Bills are favored to win the Super Bowl with a price of +600. Meanwhile, the CardLadder index that tracks Josh Allen has gained 20% in the past six-months and is up 4% in the last quarter. While Allen has still yet to record a sale above $500,000, Goldin set a record for the Bills signal-caller when they sold a PSA 10 graded Gold RPA for $288,000. The card had last sold for $59,040 at Goldin in 2021 and was first sold in 2019 for just $1,201.

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow and the Bengals were a surprise Super Bowl contender in 2021 and although Cincinnati fell short of securing their first ever title, Burrow and Company return with one of the deepest lineups in the league and should be in contention for another championship run. In the days leading into the Super Bowl, Goldin sold an ungraded 1/1 NFL Shield Joe Burrow rookie card for $534,000 which established a new record price. While the half-million dollar sale seems safe for now, the Burrow National Treasures RPA market could see a new leader once the Goldin September Elite Sports Auction closes. In August, PWCC sold a BGS 9.5 Stars and Stripes Burrow for $156,000 and Goldin is set to sell a red 1/1 RPA for at least $240,000 in the coming days. The Joe Burrow market has not been bullish this summer as prices have dropped more than -20% since April while his index has trickled down -11% in the last 30 days.

Rising Expectations

Trey Lance

One player with momentum heading into the season is the new quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. One of the quieter solid teams in the league, San Fran has made 2 of the last 3 NFC championship games and fell by only 3 points last year to the eventually Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. While most teams would not move on from the quarterback after a run like that, the 49ers and coach Kyle Shanahan are looking for more out of their offense and will be turning to former North Dakota State star Trey Lance to deliver. In August, PWCC sold a one of one NFL Shield Trey Lance rookie for $132,000 which not only became the most expensive Lance card ever sold publicly but also the first ever six-figure card for the QB deemed the future for the 49ers.

Trevor Lawrence

Prior to August 20th, Goldin had never sold a six-figure Trevor Lawrence card. On August 20th, the final bid on a 2021 Panini national Treasures Platinum Lawrence Shield Rookie Card reached $336,000 with buyer's premium and set a new record for the second-year quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Jags have a developing team in an AFC conference loaded with QB talent, there is an increasing sense of optimism with former quarterback and Super Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson now leading the young squad. The T-Law base market still lags the high-end significantly and has struggled to find much momentum but with a breakout 2022 campaign we could see a sudden surge in prices.

Sales to Watch

2020 Panini National Treasures Platinum NFL Shield #158 Justin Herbert Signed NFL Shield Rookie Card (#1/1)

2020 Panini National Treasures Rookie Patch Autographs Red #156 Joe Burrow Signed Rookie Card (#1/1)

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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Trades and Trends: September 3, 2022
Market Commentary

Trades and Trends: September 3, 2022

By 
Bradley Calleja

Join Altan Insights as we highlight trading activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolio.

Rally

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 84

Assets that stayed the same: 159

Assets that traded negatively: 89

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 95

Assets that stayed the same: 156

Assets that traded negatively: 79

Collectable

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 61

Assets that stayed the same: 99

Assets that traded negatively: 46

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 48

Assets that stayed the same: 84

Assets that traded negatively: 71

Otis

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 5

Assets that stayed the same: 33

Assets that traded negatively: 9

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 2

Assets that stayed the same: 34

Assets that traded negatively: 11

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.