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Trades and Trends: November 25th, 2022
November 25, 2022

Trades and Trends: November 25th, 2022

By 
Keenan Flack
Analyzing trade activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolios.
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Fractional Comparables: Pokémon

Fractional Comparables: Pokémon

By 
Keenan Flack

Charizard

‘1999 Charizard 1st Edition Holo #4 (PSA 10)’ copies have had a challenging 6 months since a peak auction record of $420,000. Copies of this card can be found trading on two fractional exchanges, Public.com and Rally. Their prices over the last 18 months have mostly tracked below the auction prices of each card, but that dynamic has begun to change. As auction prices continue to drop, prices on fractional exchanges are relatively flat; what appeared to be a discount for holding fractional assets has turned into a premium.

In March 2022 when the Rally card began trading, we saw significant gaps to the upside compared to auction pricing. The initial two sales of that year pegged the value of the card anywhere between $100-$200,000 above the fractional market capitalization of either card. The record set during that March--$420,000 at PWCC--also sits head and shoulders above the peak prices found on fractional exchanges; at $341,250, the Rally object tried to match the auction record, before starting a multi-month downswing.

The downswing that followed the peak in March bottomed in late July at a price of $132,608, which falls outside the range of prices found at auction over the last 18 months. One interesting factor to observe is how fractional valuations fall under the range on the low end but find a ceiling below the auction record on the high end. In what has commonly been the case within fractional markets to date, price action to the downside is far more decisive than that of movements to the upside.

The correlations between the fractional prices and those found at auction are vastly different when compared by platform. One thing to note: the Public.com asset traded at the same price for around 1.5 months late in the summer during the transition from Otis to Public.com. Aside from that, we can see that the Rally asset has moved in accordance with auction sales. This could be the result of multiple factors such as a more robust or  informed user-base. Considering that Rally is a pure-play fractional asset marketplace, each of those possible explanations track. On a forward looking basis, we will have to monitor activity on Public.com to see if their offering finds a closer correlation over time.

The prices on Rally and Public.com have been quite unstable. Such a thin market of traders makes it a challenge to provide liquidity at almost any price, leading to regular and significant price jumps in either direction. This can make the price-discovery process challenging on fractional platforms.

Comparing fractional price-discovery to the auction process, as of right now, it is a much smoother process. Assets are bid up in increments of ~$100 until the clock runs out. Since there is only one ‘trade’ happening (between consignor and buyer) the very clunky bid/ask back and forth need not occur.

Another element of the more precise price discovery process in auction sales is that of the actors that make up each game. eBay, PWCC, and Heritage collectors are far more likely to be experienced and knowledgeable on the assets they are bidding on. Since fractional alternative asset investing is such a new concept it stands to reason that these early investors are somewhat under-informed when compared to collectors regularly bidding on six-figure cards at auction.

The amount of capital required between these two options also represents a significant disparity. The appeal of fractional investing is the democratization of these assets; anyone can invest with as little is $20! This use-case is of little value to those with the means and experience to participate in high-end auction sales. If you can buy a Charizard outright for even $162,000, the auction price floor of the last 18 months, it is safe to assume that fractional Pokémon card investing is not for you.

FOSSIL BOX

Still within the Pokémon TCG universe, the ‘1999 Fossil 1st Edition Booster Box’ represents a very different type of asset compared to Charizard. It contains 36 packs of 11 cards each. Unlike an individual card, the fossil box could potentially be worth far more or less than its price at auction or on Rally. If you were to open the box and find multiple Lapras cards ($2,800) or an Articuno card ($4,800), you could easily profit from the opening of the box. That likelihood is priced in however, but theoretically if boxes continue to be opened this box will become more and more rare leading to a higher price.

The fractional pricing of the Rally object does not seem to be following the same pattern here. With a larger set of comparable auctions, we can see that there is a correlation in the movement of these two datasets. One similarity of note is the price ceiling of the fractional asset being well below the auction records.

This +50% correlation implies a connection between the price movements of the asset, but not an extremely strong one. The ‘gamble’ nature of investing in this box is a potential explanation for this reason; the 97% correlation between the Rally Charizard and its auction prices would imply that Rally’s investors are able to follow the price movements of auction sales, albeit with some delay.

On January 3rd and March 23rd of this year the box was trading on Rally at a peak market capitalization of $13,020. This price approaches the auction records in the same way that the fractional Charizard prices do. On the upper end of their trading ranges both fractional assets were unable to touch peak prices found at auction. Highs for both objects fell just under 20% below the auction records.

The similarity between the gap in peak prices is striking. It is possible that the sample size of two assets is simply not enough to infer a trustworthy conclusion. The datasets that these percentages were born from are comprised of more than a year of fractional pricing and several individual auctions. The relationships in price movements between Charizard and the Fossil Box aren’t perfectly similar, but they seem to imply a consistency in price discovery between these two options for collectible investing.

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk. 

Auction Action: Heritage Fall 2022 Sports Auction Preview
Auctions

Auction Action: Heritage Fall 2022 Sports Auction Preview

By 
Bradley Calleja

With more than 3,500 sports collectibles scheduled to sell over a three day period, the Fall Sports Auction at Heritage could establish multiple category records and provide an update on the strength of the overall market. In this edition of Auction Action we preview the event and the top items set to sell.

Key Storylines

More Mantle Mania

In August, Heritage established a new sports collectibles record when they sold a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle graded SGC 9.5 for $12.6 million. In the months following that sale, the high-end Mickey Mantle market experienced a surge in valuations as the ten-figure result provided a catalyst for the '52 Topps set. In this auction, Heritage is set to sell a PSA 8 graded copy of the iconic Mantle card and it could become the third PSA 8 to reach a multi-million dollar total and the first Type 1 PSA 8 Mantle to sell for at least $2 million. With less than 12 hours remaining in the auction, the card carries a current price tag of $1.47 million with the next bid expected to push the valuation above $1.5 million.

Rare Vintage Cards

Yes, there is a 2003 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection LeBron James RPA that could sell for $2 million and a 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady that is poised to close near or above seven-figures. The highlight of this auction from a cardboard standpoint though is undoubtably the overwhelming amount of high-end vintage that is scheduled to find new homes across the multi-day event. While the aforementioned PSA 8 Mantle and a PSA 7 of the same card will capture headlines, rare and well-conditioned examples of top-tier cards featuring names like Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Sandy Koufax, and Willie Mays will also play a significant role in the auction. The card imaged above is a 1963 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 10 and is the only gem mint example within the PSA census out of more than 2,600 total graded copies. Heritage will also sell a PSA 9 of Aaron's 1954 Topps rookie card which is only bested by two that have achieved a perfect 10. With market uncertainty still applying pressure to the overall industry, vintage grails have long been a safe haven for collectors and investors alike. The results of auctions like this one will provide an update on the strength of the longest standing sector within the sports collectibles market and will also provide new data points for some cards that have not sold publicly in decades.

Lots to Watch

Lot #57664: 1910-14 Ty Cobb Game Used & Signed Bat

Speaking of that record-breaking August auction that saw a sports card sell for $12.6 million, did you know that in that same event the record for any baseball bat was also established?

And now, that record is once again in danger.

In August, Heritage sold a Babe Rut Game Used and Signed Bat dated to 1918-22 for $1.68 million. The sale easily surpassed the previous ceiling of $1.3 million but could be in jeopardy less than three months later. Up for auction this week is one of the most impressive pieces of baseball history to ever sell publicly. This 1910-14 Ty Cobb Game Used and Signed Baseball Bat is a million-dollar sports artifact on its own but what takes the high-profile piece of lumber to the next level is the unmatched authenticity and provenance that accompanies it. In addition to confirmation from PSA/DNA, the bat has also been photomatched - something that is virtually unheard of for early 20th century sports memorabilia. There are two images that show Cobb carrying the bat and one of those images features the Detroit Tiger's legend standing next to "Shoeless" Joe Jackson. It is rare in itself to find a photo featuring two of baseball's most talented yet controversial stars to ever step onto the diamond but in this case, the photo also provides additional evidence of the baseball bat's history. For added measure, the lot including a personal handwritten statement from Ty Cob himself, which was given to Eddie Maier, the former owner of the Minor League Vernon Tigers and one of the most distinguised collectors of game used bats. At the time of publication, this Ty Cobb gamer is priced at $945,000 with premium and it could not only reach $1 million by auction close but could be headed towards $2 million if the bat market continues t flourish after the summer sales.

Lot #57668: 1952 Jackie Robinson All-Star Game Used Bat

The baseball bat bonanza continues with this specimen which comes directly from the estate of Jackie Robinson. The bat was used by Robinson in the 1952 All-Star Game and was the tool of choice when the barrier-breaking Dodgers legend hit his home All-Star Game home run. With that single swing of this 35.1 ounce Hillerich & Bradsby S100 bat, Robinson became the first African American in Major League baseball history to hit a home run in an All-Star Game. The 1952 All-Star Game was Robinson's fourth and his round-tripper helped propel the National League to a 3-2 victory. This exact bat sold in 2014 for $112,575 and the bat now carries a reserve price of $900,000.

Lot #58368: 1996 Tiger Woods Signed Hole-in-One Golf Ball from First Professional Tournament

Foreshadowing (noun): to be a warning or indication of a future event; an indication of something that will happen in the future.

In what could be contrived as a clear warning to the golf world, Tiger Woods stepped into the 14th tee box during his first professional tournament and delivered a hole in one courtesy of his six iron and this specific golf ball. The tournament, which was the 1996 Greater Milwaukee Open, has become a targeted event by sports memorabilia collectors and in February, Heritage sold the highest graded ticket from the event for $99,000. After sinking his hole-in-one, Tiger tossed this Titleist golf ball into the crowd and the lucky fan who secured the memorabilia is now the consignor as the ball makes its official auction debut. With one day remaining in the auction, the golf ball carries a current bid of $42,000 with premium and could be setup to surpass $50,000 by auction close.

Lot #57821: 1938-41 Ted Williams Rookie-Era Game Used & Signed Fielder's Glove

If you've caught on, this auction is filled with rare and historic memorabilia across multiple sports but there is no question that baseball is the standout. Nearly 46% of all lots are baseball cards or memorabilia which is more than double any other sport. While there is a mix of modern within the auction, vintage commands the most significant portion of the event and this piece of pre-war baseball lore is one of the most intriguing items set to sell. Lot number 57821 features this Ted Williams Game Used and Signed Fielders Glove that is dated between 1938-41 and is backed by solid provenance and even a photomatch from Resolution. The glove was possibly worn by Ted Williams during his rookie year in 1939 and although the written documentation does not confirm that to be a fact - the recent photomatch work provides strong evidence that Williams used this exact mitt during his first year as a professional baseball player. The auction house estimate stands at $200,000+ and the current bid has reached $96,000 with more than 24 hours remaining in the sale.

All Images via Heritage Auctions

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Trades and Trends: November 11th, 2022
Market Commentary

Trades and Trends: November 11th, 2022

By 
Keenan Flack

Join Altan Insights as we highlight trading activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolio.

Rally

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 72

Assets that stayed the same: 210

Assets that traded negatively: 90

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 66

Assets that stayed the same: 176

Assets that traded negatively: 126

Collectable

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 37

Assets that stayed the same: 100

Assets that traded negatively: 73

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 27

Assets that stayed the same: 98

Assets that traded negatively: 85

Public (formerly Otis)

This Week:

Assets that traded positively: 10

Assets that stayed the same: 2

Assets that traded negatively: 16

Last Week:

Assets that traded positively: 7

Assets that stayed the same: 4

Assets that traded negatively: 17

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

One Billion: The Paul Allen Collection Preview
Auctions

One Billion: The Paul Allen Collection Preview

By 
Bradley Calleja

Cézanne, Seurat, O’Keefe, Picasso, Monet, van Gogh, Hockney, Dali, Geuguin, Hirst, Botticelli, Johns, Richter, Klimt, Kusama. 

No, that is not a listing for a world-class art museum or gallery. Those names are a small selection of the artists who will headline the Paul Allen collection when it sells at Christie’s this week. The collection dates across centuries and spans the globe with art and sculptures ranging from the 1400s in Florence and 1600s India to Japan in the 2000s. There are few words that can accurately describe this incredible assemblage of art - so let’s illustrate it with numbers instead...

$1,000,000,000. 

The chase for $1 billion started with the Rockefeller Collection which reached $835 million at Christie’s in 2018. Then, in two sales that were separated by five months, Sotheby’s sold the Macklowe Collection for $922 million. 

Enter: The Paul Allen Collection. 

The Artists to Watch

Paul Cézanne

No artist will have a more significant influence on the final price tag of the historic collection than the French post-impressionist. Cézanne rose from the old masters-dominated teachings of the mid-19th century in Paris and carved out a corner within a modernized illustrative period. The headline piece in the Allen Collection is Cézanne’s premier work, La Montagne Sainte-Victoire, which sold for $38.5 million at Phillips in 2001. While this is the only painting from Cézanne to appear in the auction, it enters with an estimate of at least $120 million which is nearly $20 million more than any other work. If the work reaches its estimate, it would nearly double the all-time auction record (emphasis on auction) for Cézanne which currently stands at $60.5 million and was established in 1999. That work, Rideau, cruchon et compotier, became the fourth most expensive painting ever sold at auction when the hammer dropped at the end of the 20th century. 

La Montagne Sainte-Victoire by Paul Cezanne. Image: Christie's

While the auction record for Cézanne is $60.5 million, his private sale record is more than 4x that number. The final price of the iconic painting from the Paul Allen collection could rely heavily on whether or not this year's FIFA World Cup hosts participate in the auction. In 2012, the royal family of Qatar purchased Cézanne’s Card Players for $250 million which at the time, set a new record for any artwork ever sold. Then, in 2013, the royal family purchased Cézanne’s work La Montagne Sainte-Victoire vue du bosquet du Château Noir for $116 million in a private sale with the Ford family of Detroit’s auto industry. This means that while there are two known sales of Cézanne paintings that exceeded $100 million, they both were purchased privately by the same buyer.

Jasper Johns
Usuyki by Jasper Johns. Image: Christie's

With six different paintings in the auction, Jasper Johns is the most represented artist within the Paul Allen Collection and will have an estimated $75 million worth of art sold. The American painter currently holds the record for the most expensive work by a living artist after his 1954 Flag realized $110 million in a private sale to hedge fund manager and New York Mets owner Steve Cohen in 2010. The artwork from Johns that is poised to strike the highest price is Small False Start which last sold publicly for $4 million at Christie’s in 1989 and now carries a $45 million estimate.  

Georges Seurat
Les Poseuses by Georges Seurat. Image: Christie's

The first high-profile painting to watch will be Les Poseuses by Georges Seurat, which is making its triumphant return to Christie’s after more than 50 years. In 1970, the auction house sold this exact painting for $1.03 million and established a new record for Seurat who has since recorded multiple seven and eight-figure sales. The work, which bounced between private collections throughout the 20th century, was curated by Seurat in 1889, just two years before he died at the early age of 32 years old. The current auction record for Seurat is $32 million and Christie’s sale of Les Poseuses will need to blow that record out of the water if the Paul Allen Collection is to stay on schedule toward its $1 billion goal. The painting has an estimate of $100 million and will be the first work sold that is expected to break into the hundred-million-dollar range. There will be a total of three paintings by Seurat sold at the auction but Les Poseuses is the only one that is expected to attract a multi-million dollar total. 

Vincent van Gogh
Verger avec cyprè by Vincent van Gogh. Image: Christie's

Even a casual follower of the art market might recognize the impressive painting by van Gogh that will change hands this week at Christie’s. The headline work is Verger avec cyprès, which last sold at auction for $15,000 in 1935 but has made numerous public appearances in recent years. The painting has been exhibited at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York and the Royal Academy of Arts in London after it was acquired by Paul Allen for an unknown sum in 1998. The painting has an estimated sale price of $100 million which would exceed the previous record for van Gogh, established in 1990, by nearly $20 million. While the van Gogh market is recognized around the world, the acclaimed artist has only recorded three sales above  $50 million since 2015 and currently sits outside the top 15 among all art auction records.

Georgia O’Keefe
White Rose with Lockspur No.1 by Georgia O'Keefe. Image: Christie's

With an estimated $15 million worth of art, Georgia O’Keefe is the most represented female artist within the Paul Allen collection. The work with the highest valuation is her White Rose with Lockspur No.1 which has an anticipated price range of $6 - $8 million and is making its public auction debut. In 1946, O’Keefe gifted the painting to her doctor and the work has remained within private collections through the time it was acquired by Paul Allen in 2013. One piece that is returning to the auction block is her Autumn Leaf II which last sold at Sotheby’s in 2012. The painting entered that auction with a $1.5 - $2.5 million estimate but realized $4.3 million. 

The Estimates

The Paul Allen Collection will sell with the highest estimated fair market value of any single-owner art collection in history. At the low-end of the estimate, the experts at Christie's have projected total sales to reach $1,124,552,000 and at the high-end, projections are set at $1,438,771,000. Compared to the Macklowe Collection, which currently holds claim to the all-time valuation record, the low estimate of the Paul Allen Collection ($1.1 billion) is more than 31% higher than what the auction estimate ($855 million) for Macklowe.

The Road to $1 Billion

So when will the Paul Allen collection reach $1 billion in total sales? Based on the low end of the pre-auction estimates, the ten-figure number could be realized on lot #51 - which is Queen Anne’s Lace Near Kilham by David Hockney. If the auction is outpacing estimates though it could come as early as lot #35 and the sale of Lucian Freud’s Large Interior, W11. In any case, the auction is positioned to reach $1 billion during the first session which consists of 61 total lots.

The Days

Christie’s will liquidate the Paul Allen collection across two days with 61 paintings and sculptures selling on day one and the remaining 95 works transacting on day two. The difference in total fair market value between the two days is extreme - with the first 61 lots priced at an estimated $1.1 billion while day two yields an estimated value of $59 million. There are no paintings or sculptures with a low estimate above $5 million scheduled to sell on the second day while the first day offers 25 in total. The first session has an average estimated sale price in excess of $17.4 million while the second session averages above $620,000.

The Breakdown

There are three paintings that carry a low estimate of at least $100 million and 17 works with a low estimate above $50 million, both of which are the most ever for a single-owner collection at auction. Paintings valued between $1 million and $10 million will dominate the event with 60 different works striking an estimated value within the seven and eight-figure range. There are also 76 different pieces that are expected to sell at or under $1 million which makes up the highest percentage by volume. Out of the top ten paintings by expected value, Jasper Johns is the only living artist and he is joined by Lucian Freud as the only artists from the 20th century. The 19th century is by far the most represented within Allen's collection with seven of the top ten pieces coming from artists who were born in the 1800s. The work Madonna of the Magnificat by Sandro Botticelli is the oldest from the collection and is dated to 1444 and was acquired by Allen in 1999.

In the midst of global economic uncertainty and a challenging period for the fine art market, the Paul Allen collection is set to make history. The array of art should easily exceed $1 billion in total value and will set a new target for future collections as the market continues to appreciate. There are questions that the sale will answer - specifically around the strength of the impressionist market and the depth of the buyer pool for artists like Cézanne and Seurat who will need to register breakout auction sales for the event to reach its full potential.

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

The Video Game Market Loses Lives, But Retains a Pulse (Maybe?) - Heritage Signature Auction Recap
Auctions

The Video Game Market Loses Lives, But Retains a Pulse (Maybe?) - Heritage Signature Auction Recap

By 
Dylan Dittrich

The Heritage November Signature Video Game Auction was a somewhat paradoxical event. While some auction stats improved since August and the most expensive video game sale of 2022 was recorded, other stats declined and several key titles continued their precipitous slide in value.

Mean, median, 75th percentile, and 25th percentile sales were all up from the August event, which at face value, feels like a step in a positive direction for the broad video game market. Of course, it's not so simple, particularly for those who play at the higher end of the market.

The major positive takeaway from the event was the most expensive sale of 2022. A hangtab copy of Super Mario Bros sold for an eye-opening $720,000. Last April, as the market was working itself into a speculative frenzy, a copy one variant earlier with a superior seal grade sold for $660,000, setting the record at the time. That the copy in the November event was able to surpass that total in a vastly weaker moment for the video game market is impressive, and it follows the pattern in other categories of true grails continuing to hold their ground and even advance.

Now, the further you move from the top sale, the more apparent it is that this event was the weakest at the high end in the last year and a half. There was very little depth towards the top, as many popular titles continue to fetch lower and lower levels. Take Mario Kart 64 for example. The trajectory over the last 7 months for copies graded a 9.6 is truly jarring.

So how did the headline stats for November shake out better than for August, given the high-end performance was so superior in August? The Super Mario Bros sale helped, but a real step forward was also taken at the lowest end of the market. 67 games sold for less than $1,000 in August, compared to just 27 in November. The bottom 50 sales in November averaged $955, a 79% increase over August's $533. BUT the total number of bidders was down 15% from 965 to 820. Like we said, a pretty paradoxical event. That's the lowest number of bidders in the last six signature events.

Notable Sales for Fractional Investors

  • Super Mario Bros 2, graded 9.6 A+, sold for $48,000. The Rally copy features a superior seal grade at 9.6 A++, but trades at a 25% premium at $60,000.
  • Mario Kart 64, graded 9.6 A+, sold for $26,400. The Rally copy is lower graded at 9.4 A+ and still trades at a huge premium at $41,500.
  • Super Mario World, graded 9.4 B, sold for $21,600. The Rally copy is graded 9.4 A and trades at $69,300 - seal grades matter, but to the tune of >3x?
  • GoldenEye 007, graded 9.6 A++, sold for $20,400, the same level as in September of 2020. The Rally copy of the same grade trades at $25,000.
  • Ocarina of Time, graded 9.6 A++, sold for $16,200. In December of 2021, that game in that grade sold for $43,200. Rally's copy features a slightly lower seal grade at 9.6 A+ and trades at $17,500.
  • Bart vs. The Space Mutants, graded 9.6 A+, sold for $15,600. The Rally copy of the same grade trades at $10,800. Hey - under comps!
  • Zelda II, graded 9.8 A, sold for $15,600. Rally's copy features an A+ seal grade and trades at $24,000, leaving fractional investors to decide if that "+" is worth 54%.
  • Super Mario Bros 3, graded 9.6 A+, sold for $8,400. Rally's 9.4 A+ copy remains at $17,500.
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, graded 9.6 A+, sold for $7,200. Rally's 9.4 A copy trades at $12,000.
  • NBA Jam, graded 9.8 A++, sold for $10,800. The Rally copy of the same grade opens for trading next week after IPO'ing at $47,000.

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Auction Action: Goldin October Monthly Sports
Auctions

Auction Action: Goldin October Monthly Sports

By 
Bradley Calleja

The newest member of the 700 club and the baseball from that historic moment will sell this weekend at Goldin. The baseball is one of many sports collectibles set to sell this week in an auction that will provide price points across multiple pieces of game-worn memorabilia and modern cards.

Lots to Watch

Lot #1: Albert Pujols Historic 700th Home Run Baseball – MLB Authenticated

In the 150 years of professional baseball, there are four players who have hit at least 700 home runs.

Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and now, Albert Pujols.

Heading into the game at Dodgers Stadium on September 23, 2022, Albert Pujols had hit 698 home runs. In the third inning, Pujols crushed home run number 699 and followed that in the fourth inning with yet another round-tripper that pushed him into an elite class of baseball's greatest hitters. It had been over 15 years since Barry Bonds crossed the 700 home run threshold and there is currently only one active player, Miguel Cabrera, within at least 500 home runs. With no player within striking distance of the magical 700, at least in the near future, there is a good chance this baseball will be the last of its kind sold for at least the next decade. The MLB authenticated Pujols baseball is currently priced at $192,000 through 24 bids and could be in for an active extended bidding session considering where it stands compared to other comparable sales. In 2004, the baseball that gave Barry Bonds 700 career homers sold for $804,129 and while the valuation dropped due to steroid indictments that have kept Bonds from the Hall of Fame, the fair market value of the ball hit by a more beloved player like Pujols should command at least $250,000.

Lot #21: 2001 Bowman Chrome Refractor Autograph #340 Albert Pujols Signed Rookie Card (#175/500) – PSA MINT 9

Where does the Albert Pujols card market stand today?

That question will be answered this weekend as Goldin sells the first PSA 9 Rookie Autographed Refractor to hit the market since June. The price will be compared to the last PSA 9 sold by Goldin, which went for $28,800 and currently holds the record for the card in a like-graded copy. The PSA 9 currently up for auction has reached $19,200 and has 16 bids including two already in the last two days. In a world that has watched prospect cards seamlessly reach six-figures time and again, can the Pujols market capture any of that energy after a season that saw him reach an entirely new level of legends.

Lot #75: 2014 Panini Prizm World Cup Matchups Gold Prizm #19 Cristiano Ronaldo/Lionel Messi (#04/10) – BGS NM-MT 8

The 2022 World Cup is quickly approaching and the first impact of soccer's shining moment could be felt this weekend with the sale of this star-studded limited edition card. Surrounded by a gold border and encased in a BGS 8 slab, this card combines Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi - two of the world's most recognizable names in soccer. While the overall market for both Messi and Ronaldo has receded in 2022, this Panini World Cup set is the provider of the current Messi card record. In April, Goldin sold a Gold Prizm Messi (PSA 10) for $522,000 and established a new standard for the highest end of the modern soccer market. The Gold Prizm card up for auction this week has an average subgrade of 8.3 and carries a pair of 9's, for centering and edges.

Lot #44: Luka Doncic Rookie Season Game-Used, Photo-Matched Dallas Mavericks Road Jersey

The most expensive piece of sports memorabilia up for auction this week at Goldin is a Luka Doncic Rookie jersey that will sell for at least $60,000 at a time when Luka is dominating the NBA. Through his first seven games of the season, Luka has registered 30 points in each game, which puts him in elite company alongside Wilt Chamberlain who was the last player to achieve that feat. It had been 60 years since Wilt the Stilt managed to tally at least seven 30-point games to start a season, something that he actually did twice, and there is only one other player who ever has matched Luka and Wilt.... Jack Twyman (bet you didn't guess that one). The Luka threads for sale is a road Dallas Mavericks jersey which was worn by Luka in a game against the Utah Jazz in November 2018. In that game, Luka scored 24 points and added 2 assists with 6 rebounds in a losing effort as the Jazz won 117-102.

Lot #7/9: LeBron James Eastern Conference 1st Round Game 1 Game-Used, Photo-Matched, Signed, Inscribed Nike VII Sneakers & Stephen Curry NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 5 Game-Used Golden State Warriors Home Jersey

No two players have epitomized the modern NBA more than Steph Curry and LeBron James and both stars will have playoff-worn items on display this weekend at Goldin with the cumulative final price could push above six-figures. The Curry jersey, which is photomatched by MeiGray, was worn in 2019 in a critical Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. With the series tied 2-2, Curry scored 25 points alongside 5 assists and 6 rebounds to help guide the Warriors to a 104-99 win. The sneakers are a pair of Nike Zoom LeBron VII's which are photomatched to Game 1 of the 2010 Eastern Conference playoffs. In a winning effort, LeBron tallied 24 points with 6 rebounds as the Cavaliers beat the Chicago Bulls 96-83. The Curry jersey has garnered 12 bids with a current price of $31,201 while the LeBron sneakers have 9 bids and sit at $21,600 heading into the final hours of the event.

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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

Warhol Prints & Multiples: Printing Multiple Strong Results
Auctions

Warhol Prints & Multiples: Printing Multiple Strong Results

By 
Dylan Dittrich

The last two weeks have been massive for the prints & multiples category at auction, as is often the case heading into the marquee art auctions of the season. They were particularly active weeks for Warhol prints though, as 94 lots came to auction across houses, including a standalone Warhol print auction at Sotheby's last week.

In total, over $27.5 million in Warhol prints & multiples changed hands in a matter of days, and overall, the results showed strength. 95.7% of lots sold successfully, with just 4 lots failing to find a new home.

Versus estimates, performance was more than healthy. The aggregate hammer price was 1.34x the aggregate low estimate - bear in mind that this measure includes unsold lots in the low estimate tally and also gives greater weight to the performance of the most valuable items. Examined another way, among lots that did sell, the average hammer ratio (unweighted by value) was 1.59. The aggregate ratio would place these results in healthy standing relative to other recent events. While events heavier on more emerging artists have yielded ratios nearing and surpassing 1.5, those more heavily-weighted to well-established stalwarts have seen results closer to 1.

88% of lots offered hammered either within or above their estimate ranges - in fact, a robust 44% were above. That leaves just 12% either unsold or below estimates.

Of course, as always, all of this warrants the caveat that, while useful, comparison of results versus estimates is imperfect. Estimates can be both a marketing tool for buyers and a bargaining chip for consignors, rendering them - in some cases - possibly unreliable. Hammer ratios are computed against the low estimate. Where available, we retrieved the last sold price of each print before this round of auctions, and we divided that price by 1.25 (to approximate the hammer price - estimates are based on hammer prices, not sale prices). Where the most recent sale had taken place in 2022, the low estimate was 34% lower than the last sale, and for reference, the high estimate was just 0.5% higher. So, it's probably fair to say that versus estimates, the setup was favorable.

Interestingly, for those prints that did have a 2022 result, results of the last two weeks came in on average 5% lower. Of course, the more you expand the scope (i.e. including prints where the last sale was 2021 or 2020), the more favorable the results become. Including those two years, the results of the last two weeks were 2% higher than the last sale on average. If you include all results regardless of when the last sale was, the sale price of the last two weeks was 31% higher on average, but this becomes skewed by prints that haven't come to the block since the mid-2010s for example.

Still, it comes as little surprise that versus the last two years, appreciation is somewhat muted. And muted appreciation remains an improvement on other asset classes that have seen plummeting market values versus the levels achieved in those boom years.

We evaluated the long term performance of some of the premier prints, and though not all of them are at the peak, the track record is strong nonetheless. The full sets of some iconic subjects - Marilyn, Mick Jagger, Queen Elizabeth II - have generated annualized appreciation of 15-20% over the last 10-15 years. An odd underperformer? Muhammad Ali. Jagger in particular was a standout performer in October's auctions. The average hammer ratio of Jagger works was 1.88x, well ahead of averages with all six lots selling. On average, Jagger results were 52% higher than the last sale, boosted by the full set which hadn't sold since 2014.

One of the Jagger prints that sold multiple times this season (F. & S. II.140) has demonstrated a similarly robust long-term track record, with 17% annualized appreciation over the last 15 years. A significant portion of the appreciation has been realized in the last two years, illustrating a timely convergence of Warhol appreciators, Rolling Stones fans, and a moment of increasing collectors' appetite. It leaves us to wonder if this will be as good as it gets, not necessarily for absolute appreciation, but for relative outperformance, given impending generational shifts in wealth. Interestingly, one of the more valuable prints of Marilyn Monroe experienced much more muted annualized appreciation of close to 5% over a similar period. Is that a harbinger of things to come for a legendary but fading icon?

Finally, for fractional Warhol investors on Rally, there were a few points worth noting. One of the 250 extremely green screenprints of Marilyn (F. & S. II.25) sold at Bonham's for $120,075. That's below a March sale of $148,440 and narrowly below the Rally market cap of $127,500. There is a caveat: the copy that sold at Bonham's this week is said to have featured only an initial on the back versus a full signature. Do with that what you will.

While there was not a sale of the Oyster Stew print, there were several sales from its Campbell's Soup II series. First, the full set sold for $756,000, hammering precisely at the low estimate at Sotheby's. That's very modestly lower than a $770,561 June 2021 result. Individual prints from the also sold. Old Fashioned Vegetable (unnumbered proof) sold for $53,925 at Bonhams, well above the (conservative) $20,000 - $30,000 estimate, but below a September sale of above $65k. Golden Mushroom sold for a very similar $52,920 at Phillips, also comfortably above a $25,000 - $35,000 estimate range, and also below a June sale of $61k. Rally's copy of Oyster Stew was launched at a market cap of $65,000.

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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Index Update: The Week Closing 10/28/2022 and Restatement Info
Market Commentary

Index Update: The Week Closing 10/28/2022 and Restatement Info

By 
Dylan Dittrich

Last Week: 777.26

This Week: 767.16

Performance Last Week: -1.3%

Performance Year-to-Date: -26.1%

Performance Quarter-to-Date: +0.8%

Top 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. Hotspot.com (Rally) +35.6%

2. 1964 Sandy Koufax Jersey (Collectable) +27.7%

3. 1950-51 Joe DiMaggio Game-Worn Jersey (Rally) +17.0%

Bottom 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. 2003 SP Authentic LeBron James Rookie Auto (Public) -30.2%

2. 1968 Milton Bradley Nolan Ryan Rookie (Collectable) -22.6%

3. NES Super Mario Bros (Public) -22.3%

Restatement Information

Note, over the last week, we have updated our indices, both the Altan Insights 100 and asset class indices found on the Trends page of our app, to reflect the sale of Otis assets that have not made the transition to Public. As this information was not previously available, Otis assets had been carried at their last traded value pending final sale information. As that sale information has become available, we have updated the indices to reflect the exit of those assets on the date of sale. In this case, we have used date of sale rather than date of proceeds receipt, as it reflects market conditions in a more timely manner (date of proceeds would reflect one big movement, largely at the same time). This update has impact on historic indices levels, and is particularly impactful for the Otis Index, as well as asset class indices that had a significant proportion of Otis assets (Art, Video Games, and Comic Books most significantly). Impact to the Altan Insights 100 was relatively minor. We have included before and after restatement values for each relevant index below as of 10/21. For the full restated data, please refer to the Trends page on the Altan Insights app.

Also, notably, there may be a difference between the exit price of an asset on our app versus the per share proceeds received by shareholders. Our data, in this particular instance, is based on net sales price and does not include the additional cash held on each Series balance sheet. However, this typically amounts to no more than pennies per share.

We will continue to make updates as we obtain new information regarding asset sales.

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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

All information provided by Altan Insights is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Altan Insights does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index.  Altan Insights is not an investment advisor and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other investment product or vehicle.  Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by Altan Insights to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. Closing prices for Altan Insights indices are calculated by Altan Insights based on the closing price of the individual constituents of the index as set by their primary marketplace.

These materials have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. Altan Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. Altan Insights is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content.

Index Update: The Week Closing 10/21/2022
Market Commentary

Index Update: The Week Closing 10/21/2022

By 
Dylan Dittrich

Last Week: 779.40

This Week: 783.85

Performance Last Week: +0.6%

Performance Year-to-Date: -24.6%

Performance Quarter-to-Date: +1.5%

Top 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. LeBron James Carmelo Anthony Dual Logoman (Collectable) +266.7%

2. Larry Bird Magic Johnson Dual Logoman (Collectable) +58.6%

3. Game-Worn & Signed Michael Jordan Rookie Jersey (Collectable) +52.3%

Bottom 3 Index Performers Last Week (%)

1. 1994 Charles Barkley Playoff-Worn Jersey (Collectable) -41.5%

2. Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! (Public) -27.9%

3. 1964 Sandy Koufax Jersey (Collectable) -24.8%

Want to get more great insights and access to powerful tools to help guide your investment strategy? Signup for Altan Insights now.

Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

All information provided by Altan Insights is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Altan Insights does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index.  Altan Insights is not an investment advisor and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other investment product or vehicle.  Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by Altan Insights to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. Closing prices for Altan Insights indices are calculated by Altan Insights based on the closing price of the individual constituents of the index as set by their primary marketplace.

These materials have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. Altan Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. Altan Insights is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content.