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Trades and Trends: July 2, 2022

Join Altan Insights as we highlight trading activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolio.

Rally

The average return closed positive this week on Rally as money rotated into multiple asset classes while NFTs continued to collapse. The average return settled at 1.83% across 321 traded offerings.

The best-performing asset this week was the 2013 Panini Flawless Giannis Rookie Card which gained 73.5% but is still down -15% since IPO. There are two Giannis cards currently trading on the Rally and the other, a 2013 National Treasures rookie, is down -40% overall but gained 14% in the month of June. Closing in second was the 2000 Pokemon Neo Genesis Booster Box which bounced 63.6% while still being down -60% since its initial offering. The sealed Pocket Monster wax is now positive over the last three months, with an ROI of 24.1% since April. In third this week on Rally was a sports card as the 1957 Topps Mickey Mantle card added 52.4% to its valuation. The late '50s Mantle is now up 220% since IPO and has gained 82.9% in the past three months.

NFTs have now been the worst-performing asset class on Rally for four straight weeks. The sector dropped another -1.29% this week, which is an improvement at least from the -17.26% return that digital art delivered last week. The 2018 Bowman Shoehi Ohtani Rookie Card (Batting) fell -33.3% to close as the worst-performing asset while the Bored Ape #7359 finished with a -29.9% return. Two modern Michael Jordan cards also struggled this week as the 2003 Exquisite Quad Patch MJ dropped -29.6% and the 1999 UD Retro Inkredible Jordan card slipped -28.8% in its second full week of trading.

Video games led all asset classes with a 5.1% average return while card games climbed 4.9%. Books bounced 4.1% higher while wine and spirits gained 3.72%. Wine and spirits are now up 6% in the past two weeks as there has been more activity in asset classes that previously experienced lower volume.

Collectable

Make it ten straight weeks of negative average returns on Collectable as both cards and memorabilia closed in the red. The average ROI closed at -1.3% compared to the average return of -1.2% last week and -1.8% three weeks ago. Overall, 44 assets closed with positive returns, up from just 29 assets last week, while 84 offerings finished with negative returns, up from 81 last week. For the second consecutive week, the best-performing asset on Collectable was the worst-performing the previous week.

Closing as the best-performing asset was the 2015 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Gleyber Torres Card which gained 50% after falling -42% last week. Finishing in second was the 1971 Topps Basket of Hank Aaron cards which climbed 44% and ended the month of June with a 20% total return. The 1979 Topps Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card rounded-out the top three with a 33% return and the PSA 9 graded 'Great One' card is still down -16% compared to the PSA 9 graded O-Pee-Chee example which is up 56% since IPO.

The worst-performing asset this week was the 2018 Flawless Trae Young Rookie Card which dropped -40% after falling -20% last week. The Young rookie has experienced significant price swings with limited volume, as less than $500 has transacted in the past month but the card has made regular appearances on our weekly top-ten dashboards. The second worst-performing asset this week was also from the 2018-19 Basketball card release as the Prizm Silver Basket featuring PSA 10's of Young, Zion, and Luka fell -39.1%. In third was the 1977-78 Sadaharu Oh Game Used Bat which bounced -39% lower.

Last week, memorabilia outperformed cards significantly, with a 6% return compared to a -4% ROI. This week, cards returned -0.91% while game-worn and game-used fell back down to earth with a -2.5% weekly ROI. Tennis was the best-performing sport on Collectable with a 12.5% return while golf gained 4.6% and hockey climbed 3.9%. Soccer slumped -3.8% and basketball bounced -3.4% to close as the worst-performing sports.

Otis

The last two weeks have been brutal on Otis as a combined 17 assets traded positively over a 14-day stretch. This week, the average return was 3.33% and ten different assets gained at least 43% after now assets gained more than 32% last week. Overall, 29 assets returned positive performances while 43 closed in the red and the remaining offerings finished the week unchanged. There were four assets that doubled their market caps this week on Otis while three different assets classes closed with average returns above 8%. The impressive week was likely due in part to the announcement on Monday from Public/Otis which released a list of assets that will transition to Public and noted the assets that will be liquidated via auction or private sale.

Video games and card games dominated the leaderboard on Otis this week as the top four assets represented those two sectors and eight of the ten best-performing assets came from the two game-based asset classes. Leading this week was the Super Mario Bros. 3 which climbed 161% while a First Edition Pokemon Blastoise gained 158%. The WATA 9.2 graded copy of Mario Kart 64 climbed 118% while the first edition Pokemon Mewtwo card gained 109%.

The Public/Otis announcement included a note that all sneakers trading on the platform will be grouped into a fund and will trade on Public. The market did not respond well to the news as the four worst-performing assets were all sneakers and all four fell at least -42%. Card games collapsed -29% last week but climbed 68% this week while video games gained 17.7% on average. Luxury lost -20.6% and sneakers slipped -15.1% to close as the worst-performing asset classes.

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Analyzing trade activity across the various alternative marketplaces with a combination of charts and penned analysis to help investors track trends and price movements that impact their portfolios.