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Trades and Trends by Altan Insights: Playoff Edition

Trades and Trends by Altan Insights: Playoff Edition
January 20, 2022
Bradley Calleja

Wild Card Weekend is in the rearview mirror and we are now in the thick of the NFL playoffs. So how are fractional football cards performing and what are the auctions you should be following?

Tom Brady: Fractional Returns

The G.O.A.T is making a run at his 11th Super Bowl appearance as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round. Still dominating the league at age 44, Brady tossed 43 touchdown passes during the regular season which is his second highest total in his career. So how have Brady cards responded? On fractional markets, after showcasing impressive appreciation through the spring and early summer, prices have tapered. There are seven Brady cards currently trading and only two have delivered positive returns over the last thirty days. The average ROI for Brady cards overall is 65.4% but the average return in the last month is -6.22%. The best-performing TB12 card in that span is the 2000 SP Authentic on Otis which has moved 13.6% higher while three cards have dropped -12% or more on Collectable and the 2000 Playoff Contenders Rookie Card on Rally is down -23.35% despite still being up 133.8% overall. 

2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady Rookie Card Basket on Collectable
2000 SP Authentic Tom Brady Rookie Card (PSA 10) on Otis
2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady Rookie Card (BGS 9, Auto 10) on Rally

Tom Brady: Cards to Watch

Closing this weekend at PWCC is a 2000 Playoff Contenders Championship Ticket card graded BGS 8. The actual average subgrade is 8.5 but the card carries a 7.5 for corners which forces the total grade to only be .5 higher. This will be the first Championship Ticket Brady sold by PWCC in 2022 and investors will be following to see if it can break $1 million. The last time a BGS 8 sold it struck a final price of $1.02 million. Goldin also has a BGS 8 that will close on February 5th and has an average subgrade of 8.6. The Goldin card has the same issue with its corners and the last time they sold a BGS 8 it settled at $1.1 million. Fractional investors will also have SP Authentic sales to follow at PWCC as a BGS 10 has reached $110,000 and a PSA 10 is priced at $90,000. Collectable and Otis both have PSA 10’s while Rally has a BGS 10. Prices for PSA 10’s peaked above $180,000 in the spring and are still trading well below that as the most recent sales have closed in the $100,000-$120,000 range. The BGS 10 graded Brady’s have sold between $200,000-$250,000 since April. 

Patrick Mahomes: Fractional Returns

Can Mahomes guide the Kansas City Chiefs to their fourth straight AFC Championship Game appearance? In order to do so, he might need to deliver one of his best performances yet. The Chiefs defense ranks among the bottom 10 teams in passing yards per game, total yards allowed, and yards per play.  They will need to stop a Buffalo Bills offense that dropped 38 points on KC earlier this season and just hung 47 on the New England Patriots. So is the Mahomes market primed for a breakout if he can move closer to his third Super Bowl showing in three years? Unlike Tom Brady cards, Patrick Mahomes cardboard has performed poorly since IPO but has demonstrated gains recently on Collectable. The average return for Mahomes cards on Collectable is -23.3% but those same cards are up 5.3% over the last thirty days. The Otis Mahomes has followed a similar trend and is up 5.26% over the last month. On Rally, there is one Mahomes card trading and it is down -47.92% overall but up 11.6% since December. The Rally Mahomes received a buyout offer on January 20th for $322,500, which represents a 106.4% ROI from the last traded price, will investors clear the Mahomes and take profits before the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season?

2017 Panini National Treasures Patrick Mahomes RPA (BGS 8) on Rally

Patrick Mahomes: Cards to Watch

There are five Mahomes cards that could sell for six-figures at PWCC this weekend and the race for the most expensive sale is heating up. Fighting for the top spot is a BGS 9 National Treasures Black RPA and a Halo Gold RPA that both sit at $220,000 with three days remaining. The Black RPA is a solid comp to the card on Rally as they represent two of the five from the Black parallel print run. Goldin has multiple Mahomes cards that should reach six figures at their auction and will likely be led by a 2017 Stars and Stripes RPA that has already reached $190,000.

Aaron Rodgers: Fractional Returns

It is possible that no player can influence their legacy this postseason quite like Aaron Rodgers. The 10x Pro Bowler who has also made four All-Pro teams and looks to be in position to secure his fourth league MVP but after winning a Super Bowl over a decade ago, can the Lambeau legend reach the pinnacle of the sport again? The Green Bay Packers secured a first round bye and will make their playoff debut on Saturday against the San Francisco 49ers. The two teams met earlier this year on the west coast in a game where Rodgers tossed two touchdowns with no interceptions in a 30-28 victory. To date, there has only been one Aaron Rodgers card that has made an appearance on a fractional secondary market. The 2005 Playoff Contenders "Preview Ticket Autographs" Green Aaron Rodgers Signed Rookie Card (PSA 8) opened on Collectable at a $19,750 market cap in March and in November, investors accepted a $30,000 buyout offer. There is also a Rodgers rookie on Rally that IPO’d earlier this month. The 2005 SP Authentic Auto opened at a $56,000 market cap and was filled by 392 investors. Sales data for Rodgers rookie cards has been limited but his PSA 10 graded Topps base card prices have climbed 45-50% over the last month and are up over 60% in the last quarter. 

The Rodgers Card bought-out from Collectable, now up for auction at Goldin

Aaron Rodgers: Cards to Watch

The Collectable buyout offer represented a 42.8% ROI over the IPO value but only a 10% ROI over the last traded price, leaving investors to wonder if money was possibly left on the table. They will find out in February as the exact card that was purchased from Collectable is up for auction at Goldin and will close on the 5th. Investors accepted the buyout offer on November 19th, when gem mint Rodgers base cards were selling for around $650 whereas they are now striking prices closer to four figures with multiple sales earlier this month clearing $1,000. 

Josh Allen: Fractional Returns

How good did the Buffalo Bills play in the first round of the playoffs? In a sentence, Josh Allen threw more touchdown passes than incompletions. The Bills will need that level of proficiency on Sunday as they leave the comforting confines of western New York and head to Kansas City in an attempt to secure their second consecutive AFC title game appearance. There are only two Josh Allen cards available on fractional markets and one that is currently trading. Collectable’s 2018 Panini Prizm Gold Refractor has climbed 360% since IPO and is up 100% since January 7th. Rally has a BGS 9.5 graded 2018 Panini National Treasures Jersey Auto that filled at a $36,000 market cap with 500 investors. 

2018 Panini Prizm Josh Allen Gold Refractor Rookie Card (BGS 9.5) on Collectable

Josh Allen: Cards to Watch

PWCC has a 2018 National Treasures Red RPA 1/1 that has reached $100,000 heading into the final 48 hours of the auction. Another card to follow is a 2018 Panini Prizm Gold Vinyl which is nearing $50,000 after similar parallels were selling for less than $10,000 in early 2020. The Goldin auction is a little less filled with top-tier Allen cards although there is an SGC 8.5 graded Stars & Stripes that has reached $7,800 through four bids.

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Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.

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