This past weekend, Heritage Auctions closed its August Signature Video Game event. Many will recall that it was at last summer's event when the video game market reached peak hysteria, as a copy of Super Mario 64 sold for $1.56 million, shattering a record which had been set just days earlier, which itself shattered a record set just months earlier. Since then, the space has been challenged, both by idiosyncratic issues as well as issues plaguing broader, speculative collectible markets. Year-to-date through August 5th, the Altan Insights Fractional Video Game Index is down close to 48%. Given the pace with which the market appreciated, it is perhaps not surprising to see a correction, but the question is whether the market can find stability and curtail the bleeding.
At this event, there was evidence that there may be further yet to fall, offset by strength in certain pockets and figures.
At the top, it's clear that the lengths to which bidding will go to secure a grail remains in decline. The top price achieved at this auction is in the ballpark of 20% of the top level achieved a year ago, and across the spectrum of average sales prices, a story of decline is present. Unlike in April, when there were signs of strong and rebounding depth in appetite relative to prior events, essentially all figures concerning values realized were down.
There is one bright spot: the number of bidders in the auction was up considerably (8-9%) from both the April and January events (still down mildly year-over-year). That there remains a stable base of interested parties may provide some reassurance for the longevity of the category. However, the volume of bidding, when adjusted for a significantly higher number of lots in August, was down. This is indicative of less rabid and competitive bidding, which of course lends itself to lower prices realized.
Note: Same variant unless otherwise noted
NES Super Mario Bros 2
Rally (9.6 A++): $80,000
Heritage (9.6 A+): $78,000
GoldenEye 007
Rally (9.6 A++): $33,750
Heritage (9.6 A++): $55,200
Mario Kart 64
Rally (9.4 A+): $75,000
Heritage (9.6 A+): $48,000
Pokemon Red
Rally (9.2 A++): $19,000
Heritage (9.6 A++): $16,200
Super Mario Bros 3
Rally (9.4 A+): $20,750
Heritage (9.6 A++): $16,200
Contra
Rally (9.6 A+): $70,000
Heritage (9.6 B+): $15,000
Heritage (9.2 A+): $15,600
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Rally (9.4 A): $16,000
Heritage (9.4 A+): $10,500
Game Boy Console (Sealed)
Rally (VGA 85): $22,500
Heritage (VGA 85): $9,900
Halo: Combat Evolved
Rally (9.4 A++): $23,125
Heritage (9.6 A+): $9,000
Final Fantasy
Rally (9.4 A): $15,000
Heritage (9.4 A): $8,400
Donkey Kong Country
Rally (9.4 A+): $8,250
Heritage (9.4 A+): $8,400
Castlevania II: Simon's Quest
Rally (9.6 A+): $40,100
Heritage (9.6 A+): $4,080
Final Fantasy VII
Rally (9.8 A+): $15,000
Heritage (9.8 A): $12,000
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