Auction Action: Recapping the December PWCC Premier Auction

There are few auctions with greater fractional ramifications than the PWCC Premier Auctions, and as is often the case, the December edition was replete with fractional comps and key data points for investors across platforms. Many of the assets on offer are recording their first sales since the last Premier Auction, and we have indications as to how the broader market is holding up as we prepare to turn the page on 2021 and venture into the great unknown that is 2022.

Before we go any further, for the TLDR crowd, below is a tabular summary of the results that are direct, like-for-like comparisons (same grade) to assets trading fractionally. Here you’ll find how the results stack up against both the last PWCC sale (how’s the asset trending?) and against the fractional comp (are my shares trading at a discount or a premium?).

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Much more so than in recent months, there’s a healthy delegation of green results, especially relative to lasts and relative to fractional values as well. While there’s a relatively even split between assets trading at a premium to the PWCC result and those trading at a discount, that distribution has recently been skewed in favor of assets trading at a premium. Fractional performance has of course been challenged during the fourth quarter after ripping throughout the third, and as a result, some values may have retrenched at healthier levels.

Results versus the last PWCC results – the vast majority of which came recently this fall – are disproportionately positive. On average in the table above, December results were 21% higher than their most recent sale at PWCC. While there are a few outliers – looking at you Nike Michael Jordan card – you can see that the general trend is modest double-digit gains.

The positive results are fairly broad-based as well. There’s little in the way of clear sport-by-sport trends and differences, though there was a noticeable improvement in basketball this month. The sport was of course among the most challenged over the summer, but the spotlight is returning to the bevy of all time greats in the league at present.  Basketball accounted for 157 of 252 lots in the auction. Football, primarily referring to Brady, Mahomes, and Herbert in that order, accounted for 47 lots – six were six figure sales. Baseball was a mere 15 lots, as the sport is in the depths of its offseason, and therefore conclusions drawn there are less solid.

As always, taking the results and numbers at face value can be dangerous, so we’ve explored the relevant nuances below, in order of largest sales to smallest.

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1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie

PWCC (PSA 10): $360,000

Collectable (PSA 10): $310,000

PWCC (SGC 10): $180,000

Collectable (SGC 10): $189,500

PWCC (BGS 9.5): $66,000

Collectable (BGS 9.5 x2): $64,975/card

A card that is probably the most iconic basketball card inexistence is well represented on Collectable. The PSA 10 is down 18% to $310kin the last month. Comps have been scattered primarily in the $250-350k this fall, and this result edges above the top end of the range. The 9.5 basket is set to trade on January 22nd after funding at a valuation of $129,950 for the two cards – which seems to be right in line with the market. The SGC 10 is currently available for funding in early access at a valuation of $189,500. That valuation is just shy of the $192k result at Heritage in November and just ahead of the PWCC result here.

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Pokemon 1st Edition Shadowless Holo Charizard

PWCC (PSA 10): $288,000

Rally (PSA 10): $201,250

Otis (PSA 10): $236,800

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The Charizard on Rally debuted near the height of the Pokemon frenzy in March at a valuation of $350k, falling 42% since then to its current valuation just above $200k. That valuation lingers below fall comps, as well as this one. The Otis Charizard is currently a live offering at approximately 65% funded, with a valuation of $236,800, which is in-line with recent results. The slow fill may be the result of fractional skittishness towards trading card games, which have generally not rewarded investors in 2021. However, it does seem like the market has retrenched and stabilized to close the year – this is one of the strongest results since the early 2021 peak.

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1998 Upper Deck Game Jersey Michael Jordan Patch Auto

PWCC (BGS 9.5 – UD3-GJ): $288,000

Rally (BGS 9.5 – MJX-GJ): $330,000

Rally’s card recently funded at $330k, and while it’s important to note that it is a different card, both come from the same set,with the same print runs, featuring the same single-colored patch. The Rally card most recently sold for $288k in February at Goldin, a result mirrored here.

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2000 SP Authentic Tom Brady Rookie

PWCC (PSA 10): $144,000

Otis (PSA 10): $90,418

Collectable (PSA 10): $163,850

Rally (BGS 10): $229,125

The Collectable card is up 160% all time and 11.5% over the last month. It has sat comfortably above comps for much of the summer and fall– such is most typically the case for recognizable, blue-chip items relating to all-time greats. Meanwhile, the Otis card has lingered below $100k and has been one of the most consistently undervalued, highly visible fractional assets relative to comps. The BGS 10 on Rally is down 30% since IPO and may present amore attractive setup for investors after that fall and some stronger results.

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1938 Goudey Heads Up Joe DiMaggio

PWCC (PSA 8): $78,000

PWCC (PSA 8): $66,000

Rally (PSA 8): $53,350

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The Goudey Heads Up Joe DiMaggio is a pop 28 card in PSA 8 condition. Two of those were up for sale at PWCC this weekend, and both set high watermarks. The card on Rally is a longstanding fractional asset, having IPO’d on Rally in May of 2020 at a value of $22,000. It has traded up 142.5% since then. The card last sold at Memory Lane in March for just under $62k.

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1985 Nike Promo Michael Jordan

PWCC (PSA 10): $66,000

Rally (PSA 10): $28,000

PWCC rates this MBA Black Diamond card in the top 5% of examples by eye appeal, so that it handily surpassed the last PWCC sale of $22,800 comes as no surprise – though a nearly 3x may raise some eyebrows. The Rally card IPO’d in March and is flat with that $28,000 value. The card does have very minor printing imperfections relative to the PWCC copy, but the result is so large that it may trickle into the broader market for this card.

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2001 SP Authentic Tiger Woods

PWCC (PSA 10): $63,000

Rally (BGS 9.5): $27,750

Otis (BGS 9.5): $16,200

Collectable (BGS 9.5): $25,560

Of the three BGS 9.5s trading fractionally, the Collectable card features the strongest subgrades, with a 10 centering grade and three 9.5s. The Rally and Otis cards feature three 9.5s and a 9, Otis’s for centering and Rally’s for edges. BGS 9.5s have more recently traded in the mid to high teens. PSA 10s of this card have typically delivered a value of 2.5-3x a BGS 9.5 counterpart. The most recent sale of a PSA 10 was for $55.2k in November, so the market may be reinvigorated by Tiger’s return to the course this weekend.

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2009 Topps Chrome Stephen Curry

PWCC (PSA 10): $60,000

Otis (PSA 10): $48,205

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Despite the well-documented and legendary exploits of Stephen Curry over the last month, the card on Otis is essentially flat. It has lingered in-line to just below comps, but this particularly strong result may draw more investors in search of key Curry exposure. There was a sale for $55k at Heritage this weekend as well.

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2020 National Treasures Justin Herbert

PWCC (BGS 9): $58,800

Rally (BGS 9.5): $70,000

BGS 9s were selling for only $31k back in August, so Herbert’s star and his cards are on the rise. This card was just one 9.0 subgrade away from being a 9.5, so you might expect the gap in value between the two grades to be more muted than is typical, but an encouraging result nonetheless.

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2018 Panini Prizm Blue Prizm Luka Doncic

PWCC (PSA 10): $56,400

Collectable (PSA 10): $60,938

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A Luka Blue Prizm last sold at the October PWCC Premier for $78,000, which was the highest result on record. This card was offered by Collectable at $62,500 and is down 2.5% since. The result here did not live up to the October strength, though it won’t give shareholders significant reason for concern yet.

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2004 Panini Sports Mega Cracks Lionel Messi

PWCC (PSA 9): $52,800

Collectable (PSA 9): $52,632

Otis (BGS 9.5): $47,247.40

A PSA 9 last traded hands at PWCC in November for $55,200, so this result represents a small step back. The Collectable card is down 38% since its IPO and trades neatly in line with recent results. Interestingly, the BGS 9.5 on Otis trades at both a discount to the Collectable PSA 9 and to the PSA 9 result here. Still, it’s up over 40% over the last year.

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2003 Topps Chrome Refractor LeBron James

PWCC (BGS 9.5): $38,400

Otis (PSA 10): $68,575.50

Rally (BGS 10): $77,500

A BGS 9.5 last sold in November for $44,400. One week later, a BGS 10 sold for $144k, while a PSA 10 followed on the first of December for$77.5k. Rally’s card is down 22.5% from its November 2020 IPO price and is actually trading near PSA 10 levels. The Otis card is down from its $73,500 IPO value, and the ratio of its value to this result isn’t terribly out of line.

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1980 Topps Scoring Leaders (Bird, Johnson, Erving)

PWCC (PSA 9): $31,200

Rally (PSA 9): $43,250

Collectable (PSA 9): $29,950

A PSA 9 last sold at PWCC in November for $27,600, a result which was duplicated at Robert Edward Auctions in early December. They rated this example in the top 30% by eye appeal, which may help to explain the march higher. The Collectable card launched at a $29,950 valuation and will trade for the first time in January. It’s additionally worth noting that the platform’s basket of two PSA 8s is up 20% and currently trades just under $34k, or $17kper card. Sales have more typically clustered in the $4.5-5.5k range in recent weeks. The PSA 9 on Rally is up 44% to a valuation of $43,250, also well north of recent comps – that increase happened in the first trading window and against a backdrop of weaker comps.

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2007 Topps Chrome Refractor Kevin Durant

PWCC (PSA 10): $27,600

Otis (PSA 10): $24,035

Collectable (PSA 10): $25,000

This card last sold at a PWCC Premier event in November, bringing in $24,000. That result compares favorably to the more recent PWCC monthly result, which was $19,500 last week. It helps to be in a Premier Auction with more deep pocketed participants, as this result is the highest in a few months. The Collectable card has doubled in value since IPO and sits inline with some of the higher comps in recent months, as does the Otis card, which is actually down since its February 2021 IPO for $25,300.

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1998 SP Authentic Peyton Manning Rookie

PWCC (BGS 10): $24,600

Rally (BGS 10): $22,000

Peyton’s SP Authentic rookie on Rally recently funded at a $22k valuation and has yet to trade. A BGS 10 last sold at PWCC in October for $24,000, which was a bounce off of summer lows in the mid-teens, and this result is another small step forward.

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1996 Topps Finest Refractors Kobe Bryant

PWCC (BGS 9.5 – no coating): $21,600

PWCC (PSA 9 – coating): $16,200

Rally (BGS 9.5 – coating): $56,000

The Rally card IPO’d in February at a $77k valuation and is down 27% since. Sales have been in freefall since the early February peak at $67,200. Of course, the PWCC sale did not feature the protective coating, but the market here is certainly not in the same place that it was in early 2021.

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2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady

PWCC (PSA 10): $21,600

Collectable (BGS 10): $48,000

The BGS 10 card on Collectable is up 60% since its IPO at a valuation of $30k. BGS 10 results have more recently clustered in the low-to-mid thirty thousands and have typically been in the range of 1.7-2x PSA 10 values for this card. This PSA 10 sale is at the high end of a December range in the high teens and low twenties. This may be a case of a GOAT’s asset running ahead of the market on fractional.

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2000 Pokemon Neo Genesis 1st Edition Sealed Booster Box

PWCC: $20,400

Rally: $42,500

The box on Rally is down 5.6% since IPO, remaining well above recent comps. A box last sold on PWCC in September for $24,000, and the market here continues to slide.

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1997 Brown’s Boxing Floyd Mayweather

PWCC (PSA 10): $19,200

Otis (PSA 10): $18,624

Collectable (PSA 10): $36,173

The result at PWCC is in line with the most recent sale for $19,680 at Goldin, which represents a continued bounce off of the bottom this summer. The Mayweather card on Collectable is up 59% since IPO and has traded well above comps for much of the fall. The Otis card dropped in March at a valuation of $38,800 – not far from the highs for the card this year. Since then, it’s down 52% and has traded more in line with comps in recent weeks.

1987 Fleer Michael Jordan

PWCC (PSA 10): $18,000

Rally (PSA 10): $50,000

Otis (PSA 10): $21,670

The Rally card launched in March of this year at a valuation of $50k, which was right near the very brief peak for this card in the winter of 2021. Look out below when it starts trading. The Otis card launched after the steam had come out of the market for this card, but the IPO market value was still a lofty $39,400, and as a result, the card is down 45% to settle more closely in line with recent results.

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Photo Credits: PWCC

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