This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Goldin Auctions to review the results of their Holiday Auction. Note that all Goldin Auction prices include 20% buyers premium.
Review: Collectable's LeBron gained 14.8% in its first trading session after the Goldin sale and is now up 5% overall since IPO. The Goldin result fell in line with estimates and represents a continued appreciation for limited LeBron rookies. Collectable's card has a tri-colored patch compared to the example sold by Goldin which increases eye appeal and the fractional copy is a BGS 8.5 with subgrades that average 9. The card is only an 8.5 due to the corners receiving an 8 but the centering and surface of the card carry gem mint quality.
Rally: $72,000 (Exit)
Review: This sale falls in line with recent prices as Fleer Michael Jordan rookie cards have been range-bound since October. After a volatile spring and summer, results have been consistent as of late and this marks the sixth consecutive sale to exceed $300,000. The Goldin card demonstrated decent centering but showed weak corners with damaged edges. Collectable’s MJ has added 247% to its market cap since IPO and currently trades at a $347,000 valuation. The Collectable card is also well centered with firm corners but minor edge fraying.
Goldin: $840,000 ($280,000 per box)
Review: While the price at Goldin closed at a premium compared to the market cap on Collectable, it is a drop in value versus sales earlier this fall. In October, there was a sealed case of 3 boxes that struck a final price of $960,000. Sealed cases also carry a premium to single boxes due to their scarcity and increased odds for six and seven figure cards. Typically for modern basketball cards, it is reasonable to price a sealed case (3 boxes) at a 1.8x-2.1x multiple compared to a single box- which still results in the Collectable box selling at a slight discount compared to the lower end of that range.
Review: After sales showed signs of appreciation in late November through early January, this result is the lowest price paid for a sealed 2003 Topps Chrome hobby box since November 18th. Collectable’s box is down -18.2% over the last 30 days and is down -10% since IPO.
Review: Often compared to the 1980 Topps Scoring Leaders card, this tri-panel Fleer card is from a print run of 50 with 5 graded PSA 10. Pricing data has been limited and the Goldin sale is one of the first public results in recent years. Collectable’s card has dropped -47.5% since IPO and is currently priced at a premium to the Goldin sale.
Review: Rally’s card carries the same subgrades as the example sold by Goldin and is currently selling at a discount to this latest price. The Goldin result was disappointing and represents the lowest auction price for a BGS 10 example in over a year. Rally’s Chrome Refractor has slipped -7.25% on their secondary market since IPO after being offered at a $100,000 market cap in November 2020.
Review: Prices for LeBron Black Refractors have struggled to break-out of the $50,000 - $55,000 range after nearing $80,000 at their peak. This card at Goldin was no exception and only attracted 10 bids over the course of the event including just one in the final hours.
Review: From a print run of 1,499, the KD Chrome Refractor is priced in range with recent results and has experienced limited volatility since August. Collectable’s Durant is up 104% since IPO while the Otis card has dropped -27%.
Review: Both signed pairs of Jordan 7’s were worn by the goat during the 1992 season and have been authenticated by MEARS. The Goldin result represents a strong recovery for these 7’s after a dual signed pair sold for just $12,000 in August. The Rally sneakers have traded once on their secondary market and closed their session unchanged.
Review: The Topps Scoring Leader card on Rally IPO’d in August and is currently trading at the same market cap it was initially offered at. Collectable’s PSA 9 is scheduled to begin trading this month after 171 investors filled the IPO. The Goldin sale falls in line with recent results and prices still sit well below values realized in the spring.
Review: Collectable has a pair of PSA 8 graded Scoring Leaders cards that have gained 19.5% since IPO and are up 36% over the last six months. Goldin’s price falls within the $5,000-$6,000 range single cards have gone for throughout the winter.
Collectable: $315,000 (Pre-IPO)
Rally (SGC 7): $340,000
Review: Goldin’s Mantle reached $240,000 but failed to clear the reserve price and went unsold. At face value, the lack of a sale seems disappointing for PSA 7 graded examples but the result alone does not tell the whole story. The $240,000 sale would have been the lowest since May and based on eye appeal, it is easy to understand why. The Goldin card displayed poor centering, especially when compared to the card sold at PWCC and the SGC 7 on Rally. Investors should continue to follow future sales to see if prices remain above $300,000.
Review: The highest graded Mantle from the 1960 Topps set, Collectable’s PSA 9 has gained 6.5% since IPO but has slipped -10% in the last month. The Goldin result is a drop from a sale at Memory Lane in October for $55,374.
Review: Considered one of the most visually appealing Mantle cards from the 1960s, Collectable’s ‘65 Mantle is scheduled to begin trading on February 7th. The Goldin price is a slight downturn from a September sale that closed above $35,000 but does represent a stabilization above $30,000 after prices dipped below $25,000 during the summer.
Review: The 1953 Robinson rookie card on Collectable has dropped -7.7% on their secondary market over the last month and is now priced below the last four public sales of direct comps. The Goldin Jackie attracted 60 bids, including 12 on the final day of the auction. The Goldin price is the highest public sale recorded to date and marks the first sale to exceed $50,000.
Review: First and foremost, it should be noted that while the Collectable and Goldin cards carry the same grade, they would not be used as direct comps for one another when finding an IRS-approved appraised value of either card. The eye appeal of the Goldin card is significantly worse, with poor centering and visible surface/coloration flaws. The sale does mark an uptrend though for 3.5 graded examples in general as this is the first sale to reach $18,000 since April.
Collectable (2 Cards): $39,900
Rally (1 card): $16,000
Review: Collectable’s basket has dropped significantly since IPO and is down -52.9% overall. The Goldin card displayed strong centering but did have a visible surface flaw that likely impacted the final value. This marked the first BGS 9.5 graded UD Foil Jeter card to sell for under $13,000 at Goldin since August. Rally has a single card that IPO’d at a $16,000 market cap and is expected to begin trading within the next few months.
Review: Comps are limited for this PSA 9 Willie Mays and there are only three gem mints examples. The Goldin sale still trails prices from a year ago but the card has shown a steady increase in value since May. This is also the most expensive sale ever on Goldin for a PSA 9 graded copy.
Review: One of the most interesting lots to watch at Goldin this weekend, the Trout signed rookie attracted five late bids in a 17-minute timeframe that nearly doubled the final price for the refractor. Otis currently has a BGS 9.5 that has better subgrades than the Goldin example and is trading at a steep market cap to this sale and other recent results. Actually, the $17,175 market cap is lower than any public sale for this Trout since 2019. The Goldin sale is a slight premium to recent results but the overall price of the card had lagged other /500 modern rookies until this sale.
Review: Rally’s Trout has tumbled -50% since IPO and is currently trading at a price safely below recent comps. The Rally and Goldin cards had the same average subgrades but the Rally example displays better centering which is emphasized by the white border. The Goldin result falls in line with recent prices and no public sale has dropped below $30,000 since September 2020.
Review: After a break-out sale at Memory Lane in October, this PSA 9 graded Mantle reached $16,801 but failed to hit the reserve price. The Memory Lane sale of $32,509.20 is the highest to date and featured one of the strong examples of eye appeal on the market. The 1969 Topps is a historically volatile piece of cardboard compared to other Mantle cards due to centering and tilt issues. The Goldin card displayed a slight right to left tilt but more impactful was the poor vertical centering. While the $32,000 Memory Lane sale is still an outlier, prices in the $20,000-$25,000 range should be expected in the future.
Collectable (2 Cards): $32,352
Review: Collectable’s basket is down -11% since IPO and is priced at a slight premium to the recent Goldin sale. The PSA 9 sold by Goldin is the 3rd best sale for that card in their history but still lags behind prices in April and March which neared $20,000.
Collectable (2 Cards): $45,580
Review: Another Mantle card that has not been able to reestablish its prices realized in the spring of 2021. After a positive result in October, when a single PSA 9 sold for $28,029 at Memory Lane, prices have pulled back as the Goldin card reached $14,400 but failed to clear its reserve. Collectable’s basket is up 6% since IPO.
Review: Although the Goldin PSA 9 graded 1967 Mantle failed to reach its minimum price, this was a positive result for the card on Collectable which has significantly better eye appeal. With less tilt, cleaner centering, and better surface condition, the Collectable card is one of the best examples, at least visually, that has been graded to date. The Goldin card reached $15,780, which would have been the most expensive sale since July.
Collectable (2 Cards; BGS 9’s): $33,900
Review: Despite the difference in grading agencies, the Goldin sale is a reasonable comp to the Collectable card due to the average subgrade of the BGS examples. The Collectable Tyson basket has slumped -40% since IPO and is down -27.4% over the last week. This Goldin PSA 9 sale is a drop in price from an October result that closed just under $30,000.
Collectable (2 Cards): $209,700
Review: Both Collectable and Rally’s TB12 Rookie Ticket cards have performed well on their respective secondary markets. The Collectable basket is up 30.9% since IPO and has climbed 73% in the last six months while the Rally card has gained 114.6% since its initial offering. The Goldin sale falls in line with recent results as more money has continued to flow towards blue-chip modern football cards during the 2021 season after price slumps during the summer.
Rally (BGS 10): $203,125
Review: The Goldin SP Brady Rookie closed with a quiet final day, only attracting one bid on January 8th. The card from a print run of 1,250 has 99 PSA 10’s which represents 16% of the total graded population. This sale falls in line with examples that have displayed similar eye appeal. BGS 10’s have struck prices that are 1.7-1.9x that of PSA 10’s depending on subgrades.
Asset: 2020 National Treasures Patch Autograph #158 Justin Herbert Signed Patch Rookie Card (PSA 9)
Rally (BGS 9.5): $70,000
Review: This was a strong result for the Rally card as their BGS 9.5 would be priced above the PSA 9 based on subgrades, historic sales data, and eye appeal. There was also a BGS 9 that sold for $54,240 but that sale is not particularly relevant as that card had a worse patch and visible surface flaws.
Otis (BGS 9.5): $15,180
Review: This NetPro Glossy Serena Williams card established a new record over the weekend as the most expensive woman’s sports card ever sold. The Otis card has dropped -17% since IPO and is now priced well below the Goldin sale. While the Serena on Otis is graded BGS 9.5 compared to the PSA 10, their example would comp closer to the price of a 10 vs a 9 due to the subgrades and eye appeal of the /100 tennis card.
Review: Rally’s Charizard is down -42.5% since IPO and is currently at a discount to recent comps. The Goldin sale represents continuation of range-bound results for Pokemon cards though as prices have struggled to reestablish levels found in February and March of last year. The Otis Charizard is 94% funded and IPO’d on October 26th.
Review: Rally’s Fossil Box is down -50% since IPO after being offered last January. The Goldin result is actually a slight uptick for the market after prices had dipped under $10,00 over the last few months.
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