Where Are They Now: Preparing for a CryptoPunk Fractional Family Reunion
We last wrote about CryptoPunks on August 12th (check it out for key CryptoPunks background), about a month ago. Mere minutes after we published, by sheer happenstance, the first Punk was launched to the fractional world, as Otis shock-dropped Punk 543. Already, 543 has begun trading, and already, it’s delivered a 10x to IPO investors. Now, Rally is set to introduce 9670 to the fractional world on 9/17, as well as the VR-toting 8103 on 9/21. To make matters even more interesting, this week, a second Punk appeared in the same wallet that holds Punk 543 on Otis.
All of this is to say, the fractional Punk family looks set to grow considerably bigger, and Punks seem to be growing up a little bit faster than your typical family members.
Back when we wrote in August, the lowest price of a for-sale Punk was 47ETH, or around $143k at the time. Today, it sits at 101.75ETH, or almost $351,000. That’s a casual 116% increase in ETH terms, or 145% in dollar terms. And we thought Punks were on fire back then…
The market reached its short-term pinnacle towards the end of the month, with some relative (emphasis on relative) softness at moments in September, particularly earlier this week when the floor briefly dipped below 80ETH. Total August CryptoPunk volume topped $679 million, an astounding sum, while mid-way through September, volume for the month is $131 million, well off of the previous month’s pace. This comes with a little more than a tenth of August’s total transactions (2,533 vs 296 per CryptoSlam). So, there are fewer transactions taking place, but at a vastly higher average sale price. What we may be seeing is reduced flipping activity as a greater number of CryptoPunks found longer term homes in the month of August.
So, macro perspective, long story short, TLDR: Punks have gained steam since a month ago. Quite a bit of it. Duh.
But we can get a bit more granular. Back in August, we published a chart showing the 90 day average sale price by attribute, plotted against the number of punks with that attribute. Well, we can now illustrate how that 90 day average sale price has grown over the last month for each one. Attributes possessed by fractional (or potentially soon-to-be fractional) punks are highlighted in green, and the assets are ordered from left to right by most rare to least.
The big gainers over the last month: Clown Noses and Eye Masks. The lowest gainers: the already quite expensive Orange Sides and Top Hats. The average change in sales price was 59%. Fractional investors will be interested to know that Nerd Glasses (75%), Dark Front Beards (74%) Crazy Hair (69%), and Vapes (64%) outperformed, while Mustaches (54%), Stringy Hair (49%), and VR (36%) underperformed. That, of course, doesn’t mean those trends will continue.
The chart we ran in August has been refreshed below with recent figures. This chart essentially plots an attribute’s average sales price against its rarity (the number of punks possessing the attribute), with attributes listed again in order of most rare to least. This allows us to examine which attributes punch above their rarity in terms of value – which is great because it starts to get at the subjective and artistic value of these assets. Sure, folks have been sweeping the floor somewhat haphazardly in recent weeks, indifferent as to what their acquired Punk looks like - but long term, surely both rarity and aesthetic appeal will play roles in driving value, with the most appealing creating space in value from the pack. We can see that Hoodies continue to stand out, as do 3D Glasses. VR and Pipes also stand above their similarly rare attributes, and Crazy Hair has also notably found additional breathing room vs its comparable attributes over the last month. Among the most common attributes, Big Shades command the largest value. Attributes that punch below their weight include Spots at the rare end of the spectrum, Do-Rags in the middle of the pack, and Stringy Hair at the more common end.
With a clearer picture of the macro performance and the differing fortunes of various attributes, let’s turn our attention to the specific Punks. Where possible, we've gathered recent sales that may be considered comparable - either on the basis of the Punk's aesthetic appearance (shared attributes), rarity, or both.
CryptoPunk 543 - Otis
CryptoPunk 543 was initially offered on August 12th at a market cap of $51,500 and a share price of $1.00. After opening for trading on August 31st and rising to a share price of $15.00 or a total value of close to $773k, This handsome devil has since settled to a share price of $10 and an asset value of $515,000. So, what have other Dev Punks (those Punks with numbers less than 1000) with Stringy Hair traded for recently?
The most recent sale was on 9/13, for $242,558. This Punk (494) had two attributes to 543’s three, and a Dark Front Beard instead of a Mustache. The Beard and Mustache do tend to sell for similar value, so this may be a decent comp. If, however, we wanted to look at Stringy Haired Punks with three attributes, we’d have to peek outside of the Dev Punk world. Those sales range from approximately $250-$350k, with the valuable Eye Mask at the top end of the range, and the more floor-worthy Stringy Hair, Hot Lipstick, Earring combo at the bottom. 2039 is similarly dragging along the floor for 9/16.
No attribute has a lower average sales price than Stringy Hair.
CryptoPunk 9670 - Rally
Our nerd-spectacled and crazy-haired friend, 9670, is set to drop fractionally on 9/17 at a valuation of $72,000, just a wee bit below the floor (in this case, wee bit of course means 5x). But where might investors expect this to trade if it were to be sold today? Another Punk with both of the same attributes hasn’t sold since the end of August, when 9532, which also features an Earring and Black Lipstick, sold for $470k, a hearty increase on a sale of the same punk for $261k just five days earlier. Now, this punk does have four attributes to 9670’s two, however, both the Earring and Black Lipstick are among the most common attributes and garner value commensurate with their rarity. Additionally, over the last 90 days, four attribute Punks actually have a lower average sale price than two attribute Punks. Go figure.
For more recent sales, we can look to other Punks with Crazy Hair but a different second attribute. 1859, 9409, and 6272 fit the bill. The latter two have sold for values approaching $400k, while the other was sold somewhat close to the floor for $266k a few days back. Finally, if we move beyond aesthetics and consider Punks of a similar rarity per Rarity Tools, we again find Punk 494, which more closely resembles the Punk on Otis, and garnered a floor value on 9/13. It may make sense to rely more closely on aesthetic here, as despite being the 65th rarest attribute, Crazy Hair has the 32nd highest average sales price, and Nerd Glasses, which are the 81st rarest attribute, have the 35th highest average sales price.
CryptoPunk 8103 - Rally
We now come to the Punk I like to refer to as VR Prison Mike. Rally will be paying a total of $500,000 for this asset: $300,000 in cash and $200,000 in interests in the offering. The Punk will be offered at a valuation of $559,800, meaning that shareholders can expect the seller to retain approximately 36% of the equity in this offering. Despite being the 59th rarest attribute, VR headsets have the 19th highest average sales price – not only is the look a flex, but it fittingly captures the present moment in which we live. The other two attributes, the Bandana and the Dark Front Beard, are the 75th and 38th most rare attributes respectively. The Bandana has, fittingly, the 76th highest average sales price, while the Dark Front Beard is actually 75th, so those attributes should not be counted on to deliver significant incremental value.
Given the performance of the VR attribute, it's critical to assess VR-rocking comps. The most recent sale, for $642k, was CryptoPunk 4396. The two additional attributes in that case, Hot Lipstick and Wild Hair, both command significantly more value than the Bandana and Front Beard, ranking at 52nd and 53rd respectively. Earlier in September, Punk2980 garnered $575k, though the Cap Forward is again a more valuable attribute than either of those on 8103. A two-attribute Punk, 713, brought in $446k on September 3rd, and the Peak Spike actually has a lower average sales price than the Bandana or Dark Front Beard.
We don’t yet know for certain that CryptoPunk 2142 will be joining the ranks of the fractional, but its appearance in the Otis wallet next to 543 sure makes it seem likely. What to make of this Vape toting, Nerd bespectacled, Hot Lipstick wearing beauty (who also has a mole)? Well, first off, the Vape is the 27th most valuable attribute, despite being the 44th rarest. As we already know, Nerd Glasses punch above their weight class as well, while Hot Lipstick and the Mole trade more or less in-line with their rarity. Interestingly, this combination of attributes – in addition to the Punk’s lack of hair, lands it at #1510 in terms of rarity on Rarity Tools, nearing the top 15%.
2142 sold twice in late August, first for $280k on the 26th, followed by $404k three days later. Over $120k in three days...sheesh these numbers do get mind-numbing. The owner was prepared to sell for $325k on the 12th and $414k a day later, before the Punk was ultimately transferred to the Otis wallet on the 15th. There were previously bids near the floor on September 10th and September 11th.
That the combination of features makes this Punk as rare as it is means it’s exceedingly difficult to comp. There are 27 Punks within 1500 rarity ranks of 2142 that also have a vape and four total attributes. Not a single one of them has sold within the last month. So, we have to expand our search, which may of course make it more imperfect - alas, with Punks, there's never perfection when it comes to comps, which is part of the allure. Looking more broadly, in the month of September, there have been nine sales of Punks with Vapes, just one for less than $300k. The average sale was for $426k, and one sale was of a four attribute Punk for $675k, though it had two other big-ticket attributes in the Big Beard and Fedora.
Let's hope we can welcome this badass to the family in the near future.
Come join the conversation in our Discord - we'll be talking Punks leading up to the upcoming drops, in addition to covering all things fractional and alt assets!
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