Auction Action by Altan Insights: October 5, 2021
This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Goldin Auctions to review the results of their September Sports Card and Memorabilia Auction. Note that all Goldin Auction prices include 20% buyers premium.
The Goldin Auction closed with a plethora of new card and player records established. Last season’s Rookie of The Year hit a new price point as a 2020 Panini Prizm Black Finite Justin Herbert sold for $210,330 which is the most for any 2020 Prizm football card. Another highly-touted quarterback also set a new bar as the 2018 National Treasures Baker Mayfield RPA struck a final price of $113,160 which is the highest price ever paid for any Baker card. The result is also the first public sale of any Mayfield card to break six-figures. The NBA might be still in its offseason but there is no offseason for auction records. Goldin set a new LaMelo Ball record as a 2020 Panini Prizm Black Gold LaMelo Ball Rookie sold for $148,830, representing the highest price ever paid for a card featuring the talented young point guard.
Even non-traditional sports got in on the record-setting fun. There was a 2020 Topps Dynasty Lewis Hamilton which sold for $36,900, setting a new record for any Topps Dynasty F1 card.
The highlight of the event though was the sale of a 2003 Panini Sport Maga Craque Cristiano Cristiano Ronaldo which established a new record for any Ronaldo card. The Ronaldo rookie is a direct comp to a fractional offering though, which leads us into a full review of the relevant results.
Review: Goldin’s Durant sale is the highest price paid for a PSA 10 at the acclaimed auction house since May. Prices for KD’s rookie refractor reached $54,000 in March but fell to $21,000 by June. The Otis Durant has dipped-9.90% since IPO but is up 6% over the last month. Collectable’s card has gained 164% since IPO and has added 50.9% to its market cap in the last thirty days.
Review: Heading into the weekend, Collectable’s sealed UD Exquisite Collection Box carried a $69,781 market cap. The sealed wax gained 24.6% yesterday though to push its price closer to the result realized at Goldin. The Goldin sale represents the second-highest price ever paid publicly for this box and exceeds recent sales of $61,200 and $79,200.
Review: Rally IPO’d their Kareem rookie in November and the offering has gained 83.18% on their secondary market. This is the highest sale price for a 1969 Alcindor rookie at Goldin since April and the $39,600 price tag outpaces the past three sales of PSA 8 graded examples.
Rally (Exit): $72,000
Review: Collectable’s rookie MJ is up 300% since IPO and has climbed 4.6% over the last month. The Goldin sale is a strong result for PSA 10 graded examples as the card continues to establish a floor above $300,000. This 1986 Fleer attracted 20 bids and closed as the first Jordan Rookie sold by Goldin to surpass $340,000 since May.
Review: Rally’s 1910 Cobb has climbed 92.31% on their secondary market after opening at a $39,000 market cap in 2019. The Goldin result is well below the current valuation on Rally but does represent a positive uptrend for PSA 9 examples. Sale prices had dipped below $29,000 through the Summer but have since recovered with the last two Goldin sales closing above $31,000.
Review: While many of the comps highlighted in this article are trending in a positive direction, the 1997 Brown’s Boxing Floyd Rookie is still trying to establish a base. This sale is the lowest price ever paid for a PSA 10 example at Goldin and the past three sales including this one, in order of recency are: $17,220, $22,800, $33,600, $36,000. The Collectable card is scheduled to begin trading in November while the Otis example has dropped 44.9% from its IPO price of $38,800.
Collectable (Basket): $52,263
Review: With only 21 examples graded PSA 9 or higher, sales data is limited on the Italian produced Mike Tyson rookie card. Collectable has a basket of two Tyson’s graded BGS 9 which has dropped -7.5% since IPO. The Goldin sale is a sign of stable pricing for the card as the last PSA 9 sale at Goldin closed at $31,200 in January. Investors should continue to track any future PSA/BGS 9 sales to see if the Supersport Tyson can break-out from its current range.
Review: Collectable’s Playoff Contenders sealed wax has gained 25.4% over the last month but still sits below the price struck at Goldin over the weekend. As the legend and lore of Tom Brady continues to grow, so has the value of any unopened hobby box from his rookie season. This is the first Playoff Contenders hobby box sold by Goldin to exceed $40,000 since April and the final price is nearly $17,000 more than the auction house sold a similar box for in August. The Collectable wax is up 75.5% overall and has jumped 19% in the last week.
Review: Rally’s Walter Payton Rookie Card slipped -3.85% in its first trading session but carries a market cap nearly identical to the Goldin result. Payton prices peaked above $124,000 in March and although this sale sits well below that total, it does tie the second most expensive Payton ever sold by Goldin.
Collectable (2x): $205,200
Review: Collectable’s basket of two Brady Rookie Tickets has gained 128% and still sits below the Goldin result on a total value basis. Rally’s Brady gained 59.17% in its last trading session but is priced at an even greater discount to the Goldin card even with the recent trading performance. This Brady card has displayed parabolic appreciation in the last four years as Goldin sold a BGS 9 in 2017 for $9,188. In 2021, Goldin has not sold a single BGS 9 graded example for less than $90,000 and this sale is the third to exceed six figures.
Review: Collectable’s Tiger has tumbled -10% since IPO while Rally’s opened at a lower market cap and has climbed 50% overall. The Otis Tiger is scheduled to begin trading on October 6th and will open at the same market cap as Collectable’s card. This signed Rookie Tiger has been range-bound over the Summer with all sales on Goldin settling between $18,000 - $20,400. The latest result is a slight uptick toward July prices but still sits well below prices realized in the Spring.
Otis (BGS 9.5): $109,752
Review: Rally’s Ronaldo is scheduled to IPO on October 8th and the drop will come on the heels of a record-breaking sale. The Goldin sale set a new record for any Ronaldo card and established a new ceiling for this PSA 10 Panini Mega Craques Rookie Card. The previous record for this card was $236,160 when Goldin sold a PSA 10 in April and prices dipped below $160,000 in August. Less than two months later though this Ronaldo attracted 20 bids with the dust settling on an impressive number that far exceeds any previous result. There are just 38 examples graded PSA 10 and the Goldin price closed at an 83% premium to the expected market cap of Rally’s card.
Otis (BGS 9.5): $40,347.46
Rally (BGS 9.5): $47,000
Review: The Goldin card is graded PSA 9 compared to both fractional cards which carry BGS 9.5 designations. The Otis Messi is up 85.5% since IPO but has slipped -7.25% over the last month. Rally’s example gained 4% in its last trading session but both the Otis and Rally copies are priced well under a reasonable inferred value based on this PSA 9 sale. We find that BGS 9.5 Messi’s carry a 1.3-1.7x multiple to PSA 9’s which would price the fractional cards closer to $60,000. This Goldin sale is the highest price ever for a PSA graded Messi from the Mega Cracks series and represents a strong uptrend in soccer card prices this Fall.
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