Auction Action by Altan Insights: May 7, 2021
This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Heritage Auctions to review their Spring Sports to find offerings comparable to assets listed on the alternative marketplaces. Note: Prices include 20% buyers’ premium.
Asset: 1972 Topps Julius Erving Rookie (PSA 9)
Review: The Otis card was initially offered on February 26th at a $15,800 market cap and has since increased 169.10% to its current valuation. The 1972 Erving Rookie has experienced a steady fall since selling for $57,600 on February 28th. Another PSA 9 sold for $43,200 on April 15th, the last sale on Heritage before this latest result.
Asset: 1986 Fleer Basketball Unopened Wax Box
Review: After a promising sale at Goldin, where a 1986 Fleer Box sold for $233,700, this sale reflects the broader trend found in the current sealed wax market. Shortly after sales pushed past $300,000 early in the year, valuations have experienced a steep drop-off driven by a pullback in the prized ‘86 Jordan rookie card. The Collectable box is still trading positively, up 4% since IPO. Rally’s box IPO’d at a $165,000 market cap but gained 30% and now has a valuation of $214,500.
Asset: 2003-04 Topps Chrome Sealed Wax Box
Review: The Otis box IPO’d on April 5th and is 60% funded. The Heritage sale is a significant drop from the price two boxes sold for in February: $48,000. This May sale is still nearly double any sale from 2020, with the highest sale of the year reaching $13,800.
Asset:1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie Card (PSA 10)
Rally (Exit): $72,000
Review: The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie Card returned to the auction block this week at Heritage. Collectable currently has a PSA 10 that IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and is now trading on their secondary market at a $380,000 market cap. The card is up 280% overall but is down 10.1% over the last thirty days. The Heritage price is the lowest struck this year (PSA 10) and is $309,000 less than the record-breaking sale that occurred at the auction house in February.
Asset: 1960 Hemmets Journal Cassius Clay (Muhammad Ali) Rookie (PSA 9)
The Rally card is 76% funded heading into the weekend with 1,196 investors already participating in the offering, amounting to a total investment of $180,000. This is the second-highest sale price for the ‘60 Hemmets Journal Ali card at Heritage. The highest auction price ($210,000) was the Rally purchase with no previous sale ever eclipsing $100,000.
Asset: 1960 Hemmets Journal Cassius Clay (Muhammad Ali) Rookie (PSA 8)
The Collectable card has not officially IPO’d so the market cap is subject to change. Currently, the example is listed on their platform as ‘coming soon’ with a $93,000 market cap and $40,000 retained by the previous owner. Although the Heritage sale is a discount to the current Collectable valuation, the general trend of the card is a positive sign. The $49,200 sale price realized for this PSA 8 matches the exact sale price that was struck for a PSA 10 in 2019.
Asset: 1956 Topps Roberto Clemente (Gray Back) (PSA 9)
Collectable (2 Cards): $109,750
Review: The Collectable basket features two cards that IPO’d with a market cap of $109,750 that was filled by 413 investors. The offering is scheduled to begin trading on their secondary market on June 29th. Heritage sold a single example for $37,200. While the auction result is a discount compared to the Collectable offering it still represents a positive trajectory for the card overall. This sale set a new standard as the highest realized price for any 1956 Topps Clemente card at Heritage.
Asset: 1955 Topps Roberto Clemente (PSA 8)
Rally (SGC 8): $39,000
Review: The Rally version of this ‘55 Clemente IPO’d at a $38,000 market cap and currently sits at a valuation that is $1,000 higher. Although not a direct comp due to a difference in grading companies, we find 1950-60 baseball card vintages graded by SGC carry a 25-30% discount to PSA versions on the open market. Based on this result the Rally card currently has a valuation difference of 40%. The Heritage sale is a slight drop from the last price realized by a PSA 8: $78,00 on March 18th. The Rally example is scheduled to return to their secondary market on May 26th
Asset: 1956 Topps Hank Aaron (White Back) (PSA 9)
Rally sold out their 1956 Aaron with 277 investors filling the $50,000 market cap for an average investment of $180.50. Heritage sold an Aaron with the same grade that also features a white back for $27,600. Although the sale is a pullback from Rally’s purchase in February ($40,800), the card has established a support level, with the $27,600 hammer price matching the same price of a sale that occurred on December 10th.
Asset: 1954 Topps Ernie Banks Rookie (PSA 9)
The Collectable example IPO’d at an $87,000 market cap and has since gained 46%, reaching its current valuation of $127,020. Investors previously rejected a buyout offer of $150,000 in March with 67% voting to decline the bid. This is the highest price for any Ernie Banks card ever at Heritage Auction, surpassing the last PSA 9 sale ($81,000) which occurred in August by $63,000.
Asset: 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson (PSA 10)
Neither the Collectable or Rally offering has been made public and both market caps are subject to change. The Heritage result is a strong recovery for the card after a PSA 10 sold for $105,000 on April 15th.
Asset: 1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle (SGC 7)
The Rally card opened at a $34,000 market cap in July and has since jumped to $44,100, a valuation that still trails the Heritage sale by just under $4,000. High-quality 1951 Bowman Mantle cards are known for their scarcity as the set is plagued by wax stains. This Heritage card and the Rally version are in the top 8% of all SGC graded examples.
Asset: 1960 Topps Carl Yastrzemski (PSA 9)
Collectable (2 Cards): $39,500
Review: Collectable IPO’d a Carl Yastrzemski basket that featured two cards both graded PSA 9 at a market cap of $39,500. Heritage sold a single card for almost the same price: $38,400. Collectable investors had rejected a $55,000 buyout offer in April which looks to be the right decision at least short-term as the valuation of a single Yaz rookie card continues to climb towards the market cap of the Collectable basket.
Asset: 1957 Topps Frank Robinson (PSA 9)
Collectable (2 Cards): $76,000
Rally (1 Card): $53,000
Review: With the card market shifting favorably for late 1950s and early 1960s baseball wax, the 1957 Topps Frank Robinson set a new record, striking a final price of $69,000 at Heritage. Collectable offered a basket that featured two cards both graded PSA 9 for $76,000 while Rally is scheduled to IPO a single card for $53,000. Both offerings now sit at a significant discount to the most recent comp courtesy of Heritage.
Asset: 1952 Bowman Mickey Mantle (PSA 8)
Review: The Collectable Bowman Mantle is trading up 125% overall but has dropped 17.7% over the last month. The Heritage sale is the lowest for the card (PSA 8) this year but investors should follow future results to see if the auction is an outlier rather than a trend. The Heritage example featured a card that is clearly off-centered which negatively impacts eye appeal greater than other factors such as soft corners or a worn edge.
Asset: 916 M101-5 Blank Back Sporting News Babe Ruth Rookie (PSA 7)
Review: The most-anticipated lot of the night at Heritage failed to meet its reserve and is now available for 16 days to anyone willing to pay $3.6 million. The legendary card crossed over the $2 million threshold but was unable to find a buyer at $3 million. Collectable previously scheduled an IPO for their Ruth with a market cap of $3.69 million but has paused the offering.
Asset: 1981 Topps Joe Montana Rookie (PSA 10)
Review: Each of the three major platforms has offered a Topps Joe Montana rookie card graded PSA 10. The Otis example is currently trading at has reached a $57,000 market cap, representing a 90% gain from its IPO. The Rally version IPO’d at a $70,000 market cap which was filled by 1,115 investors and is expected to begin trading this summer. Collectable’s card will begin trading on May 20th and will open with a $65,000 market cap.
Asset: 2000 SP Authentic Tom Brady Rookie (PSA 10)
Rally (BGS 10): $325,000*
Review: Currently two of the three platforms have SP Authentic Tom Brady Rookie Cards available with both Collectable and Otis actively trading PSA 10 examples. The Collectable card is up 170% overall while the Otis version has gained 159.6%. Rally is scheduled to IPO a BGS Pristine 10 copy of the card at a $325,000 market cap although an IPO date has not been set and the market cap is subject to change. BGS 10 examples of modern football cards can strike prices that are 1.5-2x the inferred value of PSA 10’s depending on factors such as the subgrades and scarcity.
Asset: 2000 Playoff Contenders Football Unopened Hobby Box
Heritage: $28,801.20 & $28,800
Review: Two 2000 Playoff Contenders Hobby Boxes sold at Heritage on Thursday with similar pricing. They both surpassed the valuation of the box at Collectable which moved to their secondary market this week.
Asset: 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady (Rookie Ticket Autograph) BGS 9/Auto 10
Collectable (2 Cards): $90,000
Review: Both Collectable and Rally have Tom Brady Rookie Ticket Auto cards with the same BGS 9 grade. Heritage sold a single card for $78,000 while Collectable has a basket offering that includes two cards trading at a $162,000 market cap. The basket IPO’d at a $90,000 market cap and has gained 80% since opening for trading on April 30th. The single Rally card IPO’d for $45,000 in November and traded on March 4th. The card added 50% to its market cap and will return to the trading floor on May 11th at a $67,500 valuation.
Asset: 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card (PSA 9)
Review: The 1979 O-Pee-Chee Gretzky continued its impressive run on the auction block with another record-breaking sale. In February, Heritage sold a PSA 9 for $216,000 which at the time was their highest sale of any Gretzky in that near-mint grade. This result shattered that by $24,000 and nearly caught the $248,460 hammer price that was struck at Goldin Auctions on April 24th. The OPC card is famous for its rigid edges caused by dull blades and with only two PSA 10’s in existence the PSA 9 examples have experienced strong returns in 2021. Earlier this year, Collectable investors received a buyout offer of $225,000 that was rejected by 63% of shareholders. The Collectable card IPO’d on December 10th for $67,000 and is currently trading at a $211,050 market cap.
Asset: 1958 Alifabolaget Pelé (PSA 8.5)
Rally (PSA 9): $357,525
Review: Rally features the highest graded example from this set, with only four others obtaining a PSA 9. This Heritage Pelé of a slightly lower grade sold for $14,475 more than the current market cap of the Rally card. Rally’s Pelé IPO’d at a $315,000 market cap in January and last traded on May 4th. The card gained 13.5% in the session, settling at its current price.
Asset: 2004 Panini Sports Mega Cracks Barca Campeon Lionel Messi Rookie Card (PSA 10)
Review: The Otis card opened for trading on April 26th at a $25,200 market cap and has gained 0.50% in its first trading sessions. Heritage sold a PSA 10 example for $29,520 on April 3rd before this $14,400 sale. The $14,400 result comes on the heels of a $15,600 sale at Goldin Auctions on April 24th, signaling that the card might be consolidating at a new price range.
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