Auction Action by Altan Insights: May 24, 2021
This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Goldin Auctions to review the results of their Goldin Elite Auction. Note that all Goldin Auction prices include 20% buyers premium.
Review: The 1972 Erving rookie has firmly established itself above the $20K threshold although the overall trend of sales has not been positive. The Otis card was initially offered on February 26th at a $15,800 market cap and has since increased 80% to its current valuation. Erving may have peaked earlier this year however, as a PSA 9’s sold for $57,600 at Heritage in February and then for the same price at Goldin in March.
Otis (PSA 10): $110,323.50
Rally (BGS 10): $150,000
Review: The Otis card (PSA 10) was initially offered on October 13th at a $73,500 market cap and has since increased its valuation by 50.10%. The rookie King James has dipped 24.95% over the past month and now sits well under the Goldin sale price. Rally has a BGS 10 that IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and gained 50% during its trading session on March 18th.
Review: As the NBA playoffs tipped-off this weekend, Goldin sold a Durant rookie at a premium compared to similar offerings at both Collectable and Otis. The result could reverse the trading trend on both platforms. Collectable’s card has gained 190% overall but slipped -3% since April while the Otis example is up 21% overall but has dipped -16.21% in 30 days.
Review: The Collectable box is still trading positively, up 8% since IPO. Rally also has a box that last traded on March 23rd. Rally’s box IPO’d at a $165,000 market cap but gained 30% and now has a valuation of $214,500. The Rally box is expected to return to their trading floor on June 15th.
Review: The Otis box IPO’d on April 5th and is 61% funded. Goldin’s sale is a positive trend compared to an auction earlier this month at Heritage. The Heritage box sold for $26,400 May 8th for $26,400. The overall trend this year is negative though, as the auction house sold two boxes in February for $48,000.
Rally (Exit): $72,000
Review: The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie Card returned to the auction block this week at Goldin and sold for a slight premium compared to a sale at Heritage earlier this month. Heritage sold their card for $336,000 while the Goldin card eclipsed $340K. The Collectable card is up 230% overall but is down -13.2% over the last thirty days and -8.3% over the last week.
Review: Comps for complete Fleer sets consisting of all PSA 10’s are rare and this sale should give investors a new benchmark. The Otis set IPO’d in December at a $230,000 market cap and has gained 139.2% on their secondary market. Even though the Goldin sale represents a discount to their current valuation, it is a significant premium to the Otis IPO valuation.
Review: Goldin sold a PSA 10 for $28,800 on March 20th which was in-line with other recent comps. This sale is a discount and potential outlier as it is the first PSA 10 to sell for under $20,000 this year.
Collectable (Exit): $720,000*
Review: Collectable investors accepted a buyout for a PSA 10 of their Scoring Leader card for $720,000 on January 27th. The buyout resulted in a 101% ROI and represents a significant premium to the sale of this PSA 10 example.
Collectable (2 cards): $27,500
Review: Topps basketball cards did not have their best auction this weekend at Goldin so future auctions should be tracked by investors to determine if the results are outliers or an overall trend. Collectable has a basket that includes two PSA 8’s from the Scoring Leaders set that was filled by 190 investors and is scheduled to trade on May 27th.
Rally (PSA 8): $50,000
Review: The results from this sale were disappointing compared to the $344,400 price hit at Goldin on April 7th. Investors should continue to monitor future sales to see if this was an outlier. The valuation difference between the Goldin card and the Rally example is between 5.5x - 6.6x.
Review: The sneaker market shined at Goldin over the weekend as these Jordan’s sold for a 3x premium to the Rally market cap. The Rally 11’s were offered in January at a $48,000 market cap but fell during their first trading session, dropping -37.5%. Both the Rally sneakers and Goldin examples are dual signed by MJ and were used during 1996 regular-season games. Heritage Auctions sold a dual-signed pair on May 9th for $38,400.
Rally (PSA 9): $235,000
Review: Heritage sold a PSA 8 for $49,200 on May 6th which demonstrates a positive trend for the Hemmets journal set. Rally’s card is currently 79% funded with 1,320 investors. The Rally card is a PSA 9 which usually sell for a 2.5x - 3x premium versus PSA 8 versions.
Review: Goldin returned an impressive return for this Ruth card, selling it for $148,830- the second highest price for any Goudey Ruth at the acclaimed auction house. The Collectable card has 663 investors at a $136,000 market cap with $20,000 retained by the previous owner.
Rally (SGC 8): $39,000
Review: The Goldin sale fell short of the $66,000 price realized at Heritage on May 8. Collectable’s card IPO’d last week while the Rally version, graded SGC 8, IPO’d for $38,000. We find 1950-60 baseball card vintages graded by SGC carry a 25-30% discount to PSA versions on the open market. The Rally example is scheduled to return to their secondary market on May 26th.
Asset: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks Chrome Prospect Refractors Mike Trout Signed Rookie Card (BGS 9.5/Auto 10)
Review: While the overall make-up of the subgrades differed, the two Trout’s at Goldin and the Otis offering all contained a 10, two 9.5’s and a 9. The two Goldin cards both ultimately sold for $36,900.
Rally (Auto 10): $56,000
Review: The Trout result is a promising sign for Rally investors considering the differences between the two cards. The Rally version has a better auto grade- earning a 10 from BGS. The autograph on the card sold by Goldin contained a streak near the ‘M’ that impacted the grade and will likely the final realized price.
Review: Collectable offered their PSA 8 version of this card at a $485,000 market cap and it has since appreciated 71% to a current price of $829,350. The card has experienced a drop in valuation from its peak, when Goldin sold PSA 8’s for $1.6 million in January and $1.3 million in March. On a positive note though, the result is a premium compared to the last Goldin sale, $840,000, which occurred in April.
Collectable (2 Cards): $39,500
Review: Collectable IPO’d a Carl Yastrzemski basket that featured two cards both graded PSA 9 at a market cap of $39,500. Collectable investors had rejected a $55,000 buyout offer in April which is in line with the Goldin result. The last sale for this card at a major auction house was at Heritage on May 8th, when a single card sold for $38,400.
Collectable (2 Cards): $76,000
Rally (1 Card): $53,000*
Review: The market for vintage baseball cards stayed relatively strong as the Frank Robinson rookie made another positive appearance at Goldin. The sale is a significant discount compared to a sale for $69,000 at Heritage Auction in May. Even with the shortcoming this weekend, the single PSA 9 still sold for a premium versus the Collectable basket. The Rally offering has not gone public yet and is subject to change.
Collectable (2 Cards): $99,750
Rally: (1 card): $33,000*
Review: Goldin Auction featured two ‘93 Foil Derek Jeter rookie cards both graded BGS 9.5 but in our preview we covered the card in lot #187 due to subgrades. The Goldin card has the same exact subgrades as the Collectable example which is scheduled to begin trading on June 11th. Rally is scheduled to offer a single BGS 9.5 for $33,000 although the actual market cap is subject to change.
Review: Collectable IPO’d a PSA 8 Mantle rookie card last week but pulled the card after the Goldin sale closed. The Goldin result was a steep discount compared to the $600,000 sale that occurred in March for another PSA 8.
Rally (PSA 8): $375,000
Review: Collectable was scheduled to IPO their card on 5/20 but pulled the offering from the platform prior to the Goldin result. While still an incredible piece of baseball history, the Goldin card is poorly centered, likely impacting the final auction price. Rally IPO’d a PSA 8 graded example of much better visual quality in February.
Review: Goldin’s sale over the weekend for the flame-throwing Ryan is a slight discount to the results of a sale earlier this year. The last PSA 9 sold at Goldin struck a final price of $73,000 during their Elite auction in January.
Review: The Otis example is currently trading at a $53,520 market cap, representing a 77.5% gain from its IPO. The Rally version IPO’d at a $70,000 market cap which was filled by 1,115 investors and is expected to begin trading this summer. Collectable’s card opened for trading on May 20th at a $65,000 market cap and gained 14.9% in its first week. Investors should monitor future sales of this card to ensure it is not an outlier. Heritage sold a PSA 10 version of this card for $69,000 on May 8th.
Review: Although the sale represents a downward trend for hobby boxes on Goldin, the result is a step in the right direction. Goldin sold a sealed box in March for $62,730 and then another in April for $40,590. Heritage then sold two boxes at Heritage on May 8th for $28,400, representing a discount to this Goldin auction.
Collectable (2 cards): $29,750
Review: Elway rookies at Goldin have struggled in recent auctions. After two PSA 10’s sold for over $10,000 in March, sales have fallen with an April auction ending at $8,400 and this sale nearly half that. Less than 1% of the 21,000+ copies graded from this set have achieved a PSA 10 rating. The Collectable card is currently scheduled to begin trading July 12th.
Review: The Goldin and Collectable card are nearly identical- both contain three 9.5’s and a 10. Collectable’s card has a 10 for centering while the Goldin card is for surface. Collectable’s example is scheduled to begin trading on June 18th while the Rally card which carries all 9.5 subgrades except for a 9 on its edges, gained 38% in its first trading session.
Review: The 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky (PSA 9) fell short of the last two Goldin sales but still safely established itself above the $200K threshold. On April 3rd, Goldin set a new record for PSA 9 Gretzky’s with a $263,000 sale, followed by a $248,000 purchase on April 24th. Collectable’s card IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and has gained 229.9% to its current valuation of $221,033.
Review: Unlike the Rally box which features a visible Wayne Gretzky rookie card, the Goldin sealed wax holds more speculation. The sale still demonstrates a positive trend as Goldin sold a sealed wax box for $104,400 in October.
Review: The Goldin result fell short of recent PWCC and Heritage results but is the highest sale recorded for the card at Goldin.
Review: Although the Goldin card fell short of the Otis market cap, the sale is a positive result for the set. On April 24th Goldin sold a PSA 10 for $15,600. The Otis card opened for trading on April 26th at a $25,200 market cap and has gained 7.5% in its first month on the secondary market.
Review: The Goldin card had four 9.5 subgrades which would lead to a slightly higher valuation but the sale is still a strong signal for investors regarding the strength of the Messi market. The Otis card was offered at a $33,700 market cap and has gained 80% while trading. Rally’s card IPO’d at a $45,000 market cap and gained 20% in its first trading session. Both the Otis and Rally example carry three 9.5’s and one 9. Rally’s 9 is for edges while the Otis 9 is for corners.
Otis (BGS 9.5): $56,662
Review: The Otis card has slipped in recent weeks, falling -34% over the last thirty days. We find PSA 10s sell at valuations 1.3 - 2x higher than BGS 9.5’s depending on subgrades. With the Otis example not earning any 10s, we would expect to value their card at a difference of 1.7-2x. This sale is the lowest for a PSA 10 at Goldin this year and is the first to fall under $200,000.
Rally (PSA 9): $14,000
Review: Based on the subgrades of this BVG 9.5 and previous sales data, we unofficially appraised the Goldin card at a 1.2x-1.5x multiple over a PSA 9. The sale exceeds that comparable and also exceeds the last sale of this exact card. PWCC sold this card for $17,000 on March 27th.
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