Auction Action by Altan Insights: May 21, 2021
This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Goldin Auctions to preview their upcoming Goldin Elite Auction to find offerings comparable to assets listed on the alternative marketplaces. The high-profile auction closes Saturday evening and investors can follow activity relevant to their portfolio as the final bids come through.
Preview: The Otis card was initially offered on February 26th at a $15,800 market cap and has since increased 80% to its current valuation. The 1972 Erving Rookie peaked earlier this year, selling for $57,600 at Heritage in February and then for the same price at Goldin in March. The ‘Dr. J’ rookie has fallen steadily since those sales though, with the most recent result from Heritage Auctions ending at $31,200 on May 6th and Goldin’s last sale settling for $47,970 on April 6th. The Otis card has reflected the pullback and has dropped 27.9% through the first 20 days of May.
Otis (PSA 10): $110,323.50
Rally (BGS 10): $150,000
Preview: The Otis card was initially offered on October 13th at a $73,500 market cap and has since increased its valuation by 50.10%. The rookie King James has dipped 24.95% over the past month though and investors will be following this sale to see if the LeBron market heats up heading into the NBA playoffs. Rally has a BGS 10 that IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and gained 50% during its trading session on March 18th. The Rally example is now trading at a $150,000 valuation and is scheduled to trade on June 6th.
Preview: Collectable and Otis both have PSA 10 Durant rookie cards trading on their platforms and both have fallen over the last month. The Collectable card has gained 190% overall but slipped -3% since April while the Otis example is up 21% overall but has dipped -16.21% in 30 days. Potential buyers interested in these cards will have a direct comp once Goldin closes their PSA 10 over the weekend. The Goldin card reached $30,000 as of Friday morning through the first ten bids.
Preview: After sales pushed past $300,000 early in the year, valuations have experienced a steep dropoff driven by a pullback in the prized ‘86 Jordan rookie card. Goldin has two boxes up for auction this week and both are nearing $150,000 through their first 15 bids. The Collectable box is still trading positively, up 8% since IPO. Rally also has a box that last traded on March 23rd. Rally’s box IPO’d at a $165,000 market cap but gained 30% and now has a valuation of $214,500. The Rally box is expected to return to their trading floor on June 15th.
Preview: The Otis box IPO’d on April 5th and is 61% funded. Heritage sold a box on May 8th for $26,400 which was a significant drop from the price two boxes sold for in February: $48,000. Goldin has four sealed boxes up for auction with two already at $26,000 through early bidding.
Rally (Exit): $72,000
Preview: The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie Card returned to the auction block this week at Goldin. Collectable currently has a PSA 10 that IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and is now trading on their secondary market at a $380,000 market cap. The card is up 230% overall but is down 13.2% over the last thirty days. The Goldin price is the lowest struck this year (PSA 10) and is $309,000 less than the record-breaking sale that occurred at the auction house in February.
Preview: This complete set which includes 132 cards features a Michael Jordan Rookie Card graded PSA 10. Otis also has the complete set which IPO’d in December at a $230,000 market cap and has gained 139.2% on their secondary market. Complete sets graded PSA 10 are rare and difficult to comp so this will give investors an accurate update on the current valuation of the asset.
Preview: The 1985 Nike Michael Jordan Promo Card is one of the earliest MJ cardboard examples ever printed. Rally offered a PSA 10 for $28,000 and Goldin has an example with the same grade closing this weekend. Golding sold a PSA 10 for $28,800 on March 20th- the most recent sale.
Collectable (Exit): $720,000*
Preview: Tracking recent exits is important for investors to help make informed decisions on future buyout opportunities. Collectable investors accepted a buyout for this PSA 10 version of the card for $720,000 on January 27th. The buyout resulted in a 101% ROI. Goldin is selling an example this weekend with bidding currently at $375,000.
Collectable (2 cards): $27,500
Preview: Goldin is also auctioning a PSA 8 version of the card which features three of basketball’s greatest players. Collectable has a basket that includes two PSA 8’s from the Scoring Leaders set that was filled by 190 investors and is scheduled to trade on May 27th.
Rally (PSA 8): $50,000
Preview: Investors should track the general trend of this prized rookie card featuring the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. On April 7th, Goldin sold a PSA 9 for $344,400 while this card has reached $150,000 through the first six bids. The valuation difference between the Goldin card and the Rally example is significant, with PSA 9’s carrying a price premium between 5.5x - 6.6x versus PSA 8’s. The overall trajectory of the card still provides investors with a measuring stick though as PSA 9’s are scarce- this is only the second public auction for one this year.
Preview: The Rally 11’s were offered in January at a $48,000 market cap but fell during their first trading session, dropping -37.5%. Both the Rally sneakers and Goldin examples are dual signed by MJ and were used during 1996 regular-season games. Heritage Auctions sold a dual-signed pair on May 9th for $38,400.
Rally (PSA 9): $235,000
Preview: Rally’s card is currently 78% funded with 1,309 investors. The Rally card is a PSA 9 which usually sell for a 2.5x - 3x premium versus PSA 8 versions. This Goldin sale will give an update on the overall Hemmets Journal market- Heritage sold a PSA 8 for $49,200 on May 6th.
Preview: Goldin has a direct comp to the Collectable example that is scheduled to begin trading in July. The Collectable card has 663 investors at a $136,000 market cap with $20,000 retained by the previous owner.
Rally (SGC 8): $39,000
Preview: Heritage sold a PSA 8 version of this card for $66,000 and investors on Collectable and Rally will be watching to see if the Goldin sale can eclipse the May 8 result. Collectable’s card IPO’d this week at a $79,000 market cap while the Rally version, graded SGC 8, IPO’d at a $38,000. Although not a direct comp due to a difference in grading companies, we find 1950-60 baseball card vintages graded by SGC carry a 25-30% discount to PSA versions on the open market. The Rally example is scheduled to return to their secondary market on May 26th.
Asset: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks Chrome Prospect Refractors Mike Trout Signed Rookie Card (BGS 9.5/Auto 10)
Preview: In what will make for an interesting case study on subgrade valuations, Goldin has two 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout rookie cards both graded BGS 9.5 with different subgrades. Below breaks-down the Goldin offerings versus the Otis card. Both Goldin cards currently sit at $30,000 heading into the weekend.
Rally (Auto 10): $56,000
Preview: While the Rally version has a better auto grade- earning a 10 from BGS, the example featured at Goldin carries the same exact subgrades. The Rally card is scheduled to begin trading on June 25th and investors can cautiously use the results of this auction to develop a trading strategy. The autograph on the card auctioning this weekend at Goldin is full and fills the sticker but there is a streak near the ‘M’ that impacted the grade and will possibly impact the potential realized price. Any sale near the Rally market cap is a promising sign though for investors.
Preview: Collectable offered their PSA 8 version of this card at a $485,000 market cap and it has since appreciated 71% to a current price of $829,350. The big question surrounding the Goldin card is whether or not it can eclipse the $1 million mark. Goldin sold PSA 8’s for $1.6 million in January and $1.3 million in March before the most recent sale of $840,000 in April. The card featured in this auction is already at $650,000 through 8 bids with 2 days remaining.
Collectable (2 Cards): $39,500
Preview: Collectable IPO’d a Carl Yastrzemski basket that featured two cards both graded PSA 9 at a market cap of $39,500. The last sale for this card was at Heritage Auction on May 8th when a single card sold for almost the same price: $38,400. Collectable investors had rejected a $55,000 buyout offer in April which looks to be the right decision at least short-term as the valuation of a single Yaz rookie card continues to climb towards the market cap of the Collectable basket. This Goldin card is already at $19,000 through 16 bids and looks to be on its way towards the $30,000-40,000 range.
Collectable (2 Cards): $76,000
Rally (1 Card): $53,000*
Preview: With the card market shifting favorably for late 1950s and early 1960s baseball wax, the 1957 Topps Frank Robinson set a new record at Heritage Auction in May, striking a final price of $69,000. Goldin will showcase a card with the same grade this weekend with the current price at $17,000 through the first 8 bids. Collectable offered a basket that featured two cards both graded PSA 9 for $76,000 while Rally is scheduled to IPO a single card for $53,000. The Rally offering has not gone public yet and is subject to change.
Collectable (2 Cards): $99,750
Rally: (1 card): $33,000*
Preview: Goldin Auction is featuring two ‘93 Foil Derek Jeter rookie cards both graded BGS 9.5 but for purpose of accurate comparables, we’re highlighting the example featured in Lot #187. This card has the same exact subgrades as the Collectable cards while the other Goldin card has a centering subgrade of 10 which will impact the hammer price. The Collectable basket is scheduled to begin trading on June 11th and was filled by 632 investors. Rally is scheduled to offer a single BGS 9.5 for $33,000 although the actual market cap is subject to change.
Preview: Collectable IPO’d a PSA 8 Mantle rookie card this week for $647,000 that has attracted 777 investors so far but still remains 72% unfunded. Positive results from this Goldin sale could provide the catalyst needed to turn potential investors into buyers. Mantle has performed well on the Collectable secondary market, with the 1952 Bowman gaining 125% overall.
Rally (PSA 8): $375,000
Preview: On 5/20 at 8 PM EST Collectable will IPO a 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson Rookie Card (PSA 7). Goldin will be closing a Robinson rookie card from this iconic set with the same grade this weekend, providing investors with an immediate result to compare. Rally IPO’d a PSA 8 graded example in February for $375,000 that was filled by 1,020 investors.
Preview: The last time Goldin sold a PSA 9 rookie card of the flame-throwing Ryan it struck a final price of $73,000 during their Goldin Elite auction in January. Rally IPO’d their PSA 9 for $70,000 and investors will have a direct comp to track before the fractionalized rookie hits the trading floor this summer.
Preview: Each of the three major platforms has offered a Topps Joe Montana rookie card graded PSA 10. The Otis example is currently trading at a $53,520 market cap, representing a 77.5% gain from its IPO. The Rally version IPO’d at a $70,000 market cap which was filled by 1,115 investors and is expected to begin trading this summer. Collectable’s card opened for trading on May 20th at a $65,000 market cap. Heritage sold a PSA 10 version of this card for $69,000 on May 8th while the Goldin card has reached $43,000 in early bidding.
Preview: As the legend of Tom Brady continues to grow, the valuation of the 2000 Playoff Contenders Box follows suit. Featuring the Playoff Contenders Ticket Cards, these boxes have become a hot commodity as Championship ticket examples sell for over $1 million. Collectable currently has a box trading on its platform for $28,481, representing a 22.5% premium versus its IPO. Two 2000 Playoff Contenders Hobby Boxes sold at Heritage on May 8th for $28,400 similar pricing.
Collectable (2 cards): $29,750
Preview: It only took 143 investors to fill the $29,750 offering for Collectable’s basket of John Elway rookie cards and now those investors will have a direct comp to track as Goldin auctions a single card. Less than 1% of the 21,000+ copies graded from this set have achieved a PSA 10 rating. The Collectable card is currently scheduled to begin trading July 12th.
Preview: Collectable’s card has three 9.5 subgrades and a 10 for centering. It is scheduled to begin trading on June 18th and will open at a $36,000 market cap. The Rally example which carries all 9.5 subgrades except for a 9 on its edges IPO’d at an $18,500 market cap and gained 38% in its first trading session. Goldin’s card contains three 9.5’s and a 10 for the surface.
Preview: The 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky (PSA 9) returns to Goldin following two impressive April sales. On April 3rd, Goldin set a new record for PSA 9 Gretzky’s with a $263,000, followed by a $248,000 sale on April 24th. The current offering on Goldin has reached $172,000 through the first 19 bids. Collectable’s card IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and has gained 229.9% to its current valuation of $221,033.
Preview: Before any of the prized 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky’s on the auction block were graded and slabbed, they resided in these colorful wax boxes. Rally currently has a box that filled its $300,000 market cap with 1,003 investors. The Rally wax sells at a premium to most boxes since it contains a guaranteed Gretzky card that is visible through the thin wax coating. Although there is no certainty the Goldin box contains a Gretzky, the general trend of the box will give Rally investors insight into the current valuation of this prized hockey wax. In October 2020, Goldin sold a sealed wax box for $104,400 and this box sits at an $81,000 price tag heading into the weekend.
Preview: Rally IPO’d their Lemieux rookie on April 7th for $87,500 and investors will be watching the results of this auction for a sense on how the card will trade in its opening session. Direct comps for this card have been scarce and this is the first appearance for a PSA 10 Lemieux rookie this year.
Preview: The Otis card opened for trading on April 26th at a $25,200 market cap and has gained 7.5% in its first month on the secondary market. Goldin is auctioning an example of this gem mint card which highlights Messi in his Barcelona kit. Heading into the weekend their Messi is sitting at a $9,500 price tag after 13 bids.
Preview: The Otis card was offered at a $33,700 market cap and has gained 80% while trading. Rally’s card IPO’d at a $45,000 market cap and gained 20% in its first trading session. Both the Otis and Rally example carry three 9.5’s and one 9. Rally’s 9 is for edges while the Otis 9 is for corners. The Goldin card earned four 9.5’s which could lead to a slightly higher valuation.
Otis (BGS 9.5): $56,662
Preview: The Otis card carries three 9.5 subgrades and a 9 for corners. The card IPO’d at a $21,520 market cap and is up 163% on their trading floor. The card has slipped in recent weeks, falling -34% over the last thirty days. Goldin is featuring a PSA 10 that has reached $120,000 in early bidding. We find PSA 10s sell at valuations 1.3 - 2x higher than BGS 9.5’s depending on subgrades. With the Otis example not earning any 10s in its subgrade, we would expect to value their card at a difference of 1.7-2x.
Rally (PSA 9): $14,000
Preview: There are only 15 examples graded equal to or higher than the Rally card so direct comps are limited. Based on the subgrades of this BVG 9.5 and previous sales data, it is reasonable to appraise the Goldin card at a 1.2x-1.5x multiple over a PSA 9. PWCC sold this exact card for $17,000 on March 27th so the Goldin sale will provide an update on the direction of the vintage soccer market.
Disclaimer: You understand that by reading Altan Insights, you are not receiving financial advice. No content published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the author(s) are not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether an investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. Please speak with a financial advisor to understand if the risks inherent in trading are appropriate for you. Trade at your own risk.