Auction Action by Altan Insights: April 9, 2021
This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Goldin Auctions to review the results of their March Premium Auction to find offerings comparable to assets listed on the alternative marketplaces. Note that all auction prices include 20% buyer’s premium (23% for purchases made by credit card) .
The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie Card returned to the auction block yet again, this time with three different PSA 10’s all available for bidding. Two of the cards sold for $450,000 with one breaking away from its peers and settling at a final price of $522,750. The latter sale is particularly important as it marks a return over the half-million-dollar threshold for a card that had not surpassed $480,000 throughout March. Collectable currently has a PSA 10 trading on their platform at a $380,000 market cap which marks its lowest point since the card started trading on February 9th.
Rally IPO’d a 1987 Fleer Michael Jordan card (PSA 10) for $50,000 on March 31st. Goldin sold two from the same set and grade for a steep discount, possibly signaling a downtrend in the G.O.A.T.'s second-year flagship card. Heading into the auction, the average auction price in 2021 for ‘87 Fleer MJ’s was $43,478. The two cards on Goldin sold for $27,060 and $29,520. It is worth noting that multiple Jordan-card records were set by Goldin over the weekend, including 1997 Ultra and the 1997 UD Game Jersey, so the price could be resetting or moving towards later versions of prized MJ wax.
Both Collectable and Rally have IPO’d the 1985 Nike Promo Michael Jordan Rookie Card, Rally’s was a single PSA 10 and Collectable offered a basket of 50 cards with grades ranging from SGC 9.5 through SGC Pristine 10. Goldin sold two PSA 10 Promo cards, one for $24,000 and the other for $24,600 while also selling an SGC 10 for $14,760. The card on Rally currently has a market cap of $28,000 pre-trading while the Collectable basket has a $139,000 valuation.
The 2003-04 Topps Chrome Refractors LeBron James sold similarly to the 1986 Fleer, with multiple cards selling at different price points. Goldin featured three PSA 10’s with final prices settling at $135,300, $159,900, and $221,400, for an average price of $172,200. Otis currently has a card from the same series and grade trading at a $157,143 market cap. The card IPO’d at a $73,500 valuation and has since climbed 113.8% to its current price. Rally also has an example trading on their platform (BGS 10) with a market cap of $150,000. The card IPO’d at $100,000 and gained 50% in its first trading session on March 18th.
Both Collectable and Rally have 1986 Fleer Sealed Wax Boxes on their platforms that are currently selling at discounts compared to the box sold by Goldin. After 19 bids, the Goldin set struck a price of $233,700, a price 35.3% higher than the box currently at Collectable and 8.6% higher than Rally’s. The Rally wax box IPO’d at a $165,000 market cap and has since increased 29.7% to its current price while the Collectable wax IPO’d at $183,750 and has fallen 11%. The Goldin price is a decline from previous sales- two boxes sold for $336,000 each at their Winter Auction which closed March 7th.
The 1980-81 Topps Basketball Sealed Wax Box continued to lag with Goldin selling five examples ranging from $36,900 - $47,970. The box, which features the iconic Ring Pop ad across its top panel, is highlighted by cards from Larry Bird's and Magic Johnson's rookie year. One sealed case which sold for $40,590 even has a Bid/Erving/Johnson Scoring Leaders card visible through the back but a recent downtrend in valuation for the era has resulted in a pullback for the sealed examples overall. Rally currently has a box awaiting IPO at a $77,500 market cap. The box previously reached a high of $91,200 at Goldin’s Elite auction in January.
In our article regarding the 1981 Topps Magic Johnson card (PSA 10) we highlighted the recent decline in valuation after the card reached a new high of $59,000 at the March Monthly Card Auction hosted by Goldin Auctions on March 20th. Since then, Leland’s sold a version for $25,833 last weekend and the Goldin card this week sold for an even lower $20,910. Otis offered a Magic Johnson card from the same set with the same grade for $47,400 on March 26th.
Rally currently has a 2009 Panini Steph Curry RPA open as a Live Offering on their platform that is 60% funded at a $525,000 market cap. The card is graded BGS 9.5 with a BGS 10 for the autograph. Goldin closed a card also graded BGS 9.5 but with a BGS 9 auto for $196,800, a steep decrease from recent valuations. Curry has returned to the court this year after suffering a season-ending injury through just five games into his 2020-2021 campaign and has continued to impress, averaging 29.7 points per game through the first half of the season.
The 1972 Topps Julius Erving Rookie Card (PSA 9) on Otis continues to trade under recent auction sale valuations. The card IPO’d at a $15,800 market cap and has climbed to $39,500, representing a 150% increase but even that lags the sale price of the card sold at Goldin. After 15 bids the final price was $47,970, a 19.4% market cap upside to the Otis offering.
Collectable IPO’d a 2019-19 Panini Prizm Blue Refractor Luka Doncic card at a $62,000 market cap on March 3rd. With limited comps heading into the Goldin auction, eyes were on the two examples featured at the event. The duo of BGS 9.5’s sold for $51,660 and $40,590 which is an impressive leap from the last hammer price of an /199 card at Goldin- one sold for $3,383 in February 2020.
Collectable is scheduled to IPO a 1996 Bowman’s Best Kobe Bryant Rookie Card (PSA 9) at a $29,250 market cap and Goldin presented a direct comp that sold for $11,685. The result is a disappointing discount to the upcoming Collectable offering but with only 35 examples graded higher and momentum swelling around Bryant cards, the offering could find itself at a much different valuation in 18-24 months as rotations within the space naturally occur. Otis currently has a BGS 9.5 of the card trading at a $58,300 market cap.
At first glance investors in the Rally 1996-97 Topps Finest Kobe Refractor (BGS 9.5) might have felt their investment was overvalued at its $77,000 market cap when Goldin struck a final price for a card with the same grade for $67,000. The Goldin BGS 9.5 sale was for a card that is not still encased in its original protective film coating however which negatively impacts the valuation. Goldin did provide a better comp to the Rally example though, a PSA 10 with the wax coating that hit a hammer price of $103,200, depicting a 79.9% premium to the Rally card.
Collectable IPO’d a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle (PSA 8) which was filled by 655 investors at a $485,000 market cap. Goldin sold a 1952 Topps Mantle for $861,000- representing a 55.9% premium to the Collectable offering. The card is expected to begin trading soon at Collectable and has surpassed the $1 million threshold twice at Goldin in 2021, with sales of $1.3 and $1.6 million.
The Roberto Clemente market continues to impress through the first quarter of 2021. Goldin closed a sale for a 1955 Topps Roberto Clemente Rookie Card (PSA 8) for $75,030 which is consistent with a previous sale of $78,000 struck at Heritage Auctions on March 18th. Rally currently has a 1955 Clemente (SGC 8) trading at a $39,000 market cap.
The 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson card experienced a slight pullback at Goldin with a PSA 7 selling for $233,700. Goldin previously sold a PSA 7 for $392,400 in their Winter Auction that ended March 7th. Rally currently has a PSA 8 version at a $375,000 market cap that is scheduled to begin trading soon.
Collectable IPO’d a 1954 Topps Hank Aaron Rookie Card (PSA 8.5) for $120,000 which is a precipitous discount to Goldin example from the same set and grade which sold for $211,560. The sale is the highest for any PSA 8.5 Hammerin’ Hank ever sold at Goldin and even outpaces a PSA 9 sale from August that closed for $204,000.
Rally offered a 2009 Bowman Mike Trout Orange Refractor Rookie Card (BGS 9.5) in October 2020 for $225,000. After two trading sessions, the card has increased its valuation to a $267,1888 price tag which still sits below Goldin’s $270,600 sale of a card with the same grade.
Collectable offered a basket of two 1993 SP Derek Jeter Rookie Cards (BGS 9.5) that sold out at a $99,750 market cap to 622 investors. Goldin sold a single card with the same grade for $26,400, the first recent comp for the card at Goldin in 2021. The BGS 9.5 example is extremely rare with none graded higher out of 16,500 in total.
All three fractional investing platforms currently hold a 1981 Topps Joe Montana Rookie Card (PSA 10), and according to the recent Goldin auction, all three are undervalued. The Otis card currency holds a $59,910 market cap while Collectable sits at $65,000 and Rally offered theirs at $70,000. Goldin’s card went for $76,260 and while that is a slight decline from the results of their January 31st auction, in which a Montana sold for $87,330, the Montana rookie has continued to perform at a high level through 2021, with an average sale price 86% higher than the average sale in 2020.
Collectable and Otis both currently have 2000 SP Authentic Tom Brady Rookie Cards trading on their platforms with the Collectable example trading at $141,194 and the Otis card valued at $106,000. Both are graded PSA 10 and sit slightly above the range of Goldin’s BGS 9.5 sale of $81,180 but well under a BGS 10 (Pristine) which sold for $319,800. The BGS 10 example contains all 10’s for subgrades except for a 9.5 surface grade. We find that BGS 10’s usually sell at a slight premium to PSA 10’s but results can vary across different auction houses.
Rally investors will have their first opportunity to trade the 2001 SP Authentic Tiger Woods Auto Rookie Card (BGS 9.5) on April 15th and it comes on the heels of a stellar showing at Goldin. The card, produced in a total run of 900, sold for $40,590, an impressive 74.8% premium to the $18,500 market cap the Rally example was offered at.
Just as Wayne Gretzky broke nearly every NHL record during his illustrious career, his card is on a similar record-setting tear. Just a week after a PSA 9 sold at Leland’s for what was a new record of $259,501, Goldin set the bar even higher with a hammer price of $271,830. Collectable currently has a PSA 9 of the same card trading on their secondary market with a market cap of $167,500. The asset has gained 150% since its IPO on the platform, when it opened publicly at a $67,000 market cap - though the current valuation still sits at a 47.5% discount to the Goldin sale.
One of the largest price discrepancies of the auction compared to a fractional market comes from the 2002 Panini Futebol Christiano Ronaldo Rookie Card. Otis IPO’d a BGS 9.5 for 21,520 on February 5th and the card has displayed tremendous appreciations, increasing 250% to a $75,320 market cap. Even with the secondary market action, the card is trading at a 72.6% discount to the BGS 9.5 Goldin sold this week. Thirty bids pushed the price of the Goldin card to a final price of $161,130. Also worth noting- Goldin sold a PSA 10 of the card for $236,160, which is a new record for any Ronaldo sold at the acclaimed auction house.
Otis IPO'd a 2004 Panini Lionel Messi Sports Mega Cracks Barcelona Campeon (PSA 10) for $25,200 on March 31st that should hit their secondary market in the coming weeks and will have a direct comp to base its valuation from. Goldin sold a PSA 10 from the same set for $29,520. Another PSA 10 came in at a lower valuation of $15,990 so investors should continue to follow upcoming auctions to garner a more accurate gauge of present market cap.
The results of the record-breaking Goldin sale for the 1979 Panini Calciatori Stickers Diego Maradona Rookie Card (PSA 10) should catch the attention of investors of Rally’s PSA 9, even if the two are not direct comps. The Maradona sticker broke through the half-million-dollar ceiling, hitting a hammer price of $555,960. This marked one of the first high-profile sales for a Diego Maradona sticker since his passing in November and set a new standard for investors to appraise lower-graded examples to. The Rally PSA 9 is one of only 14 in that grade and the card sold by Goldin is the only PSA 10. The Rally card currently has a $14,000 market cap and is expected to open on their secondary market in the coming months.
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