Auction Action by Altan Insights: April 23, 2021
This week on Auction Action, the Altan Insights team virtually visits Goldin Auctions to preview their upcoming April Premium Card Auction to find offerings comparable to assets listed on the alternative marketplaces. The high-profile auction closes Saturday evening and investors can follow activity relevant to their portfolio as the final bids come through.
Goldin will close a 2003-04 Topps LeBron James Chrome Refractor (PSA 10) this weekend. Heading into the final day the card sits at $132,000 through the first 14 bids. Otis currently has an example with the same grade trading on their platform at a $143,325 market cap. The card was initially offered on October 13th at a $73,500 market cap and has since increased its valuation by 95%. Rally has a BGS 10 chrome refractor that IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and gained 50% during its trading session on March 18th. The Rally example is now trading at a $150,000 valuation.
On April 6th, investors at Collectable accepted a buyout offer for the 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain (PSA 9). The card IPO’d at a $200,000 market cap with the original owner retaining $99,900 of equity. The buyout offer was for $350,000 and 66% of shareholders on a weighted basis agreed to sell the card. Goldin has an example of this card with the same grade up for auction and it has already reached $350,000 through 14 bids.
Goldin currently has a 1986 Fleer Basketball Unopened Wax Box sitting at $160,000 through the first 15 bids. Investors on Collectable and Rally should follow the box as it heads into the weekend. The box on Collectable is currently trading at a $187,425 market cap. The box is up 2% since its IPO but has dropped 8.1% in the past week. Rally also has a box that last traded on March 23rd. Rally’s box IPO’d at a $165,000 market cap but gained 30% and now has a valuation of $214,500.
The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie Card is back on the auction block this week at Goldin. Heading into the weekend the card has a price of $325,000 through 16 bids. Collectable currently has a PSA 10 that IPO’d at a $100,000 market cap and is now trading on their secondary market at a $376,000 market cap. The card is up 276% overall but in the last month is down 16.4%. Investors should continue to monitor auction activity involving 1980s basketball wax to see if the sector rebounds or continues to pull-back.
Otis IPO’d a 1996 Bowman's Best Rookie Atomic Refractor Kobe Bryant Rookie Card (BGS 9.5) on March 22nd at a $58,300 market cap. Goldin has a PSA 10 version of the card up for auction that has a high bid of $43,000 with one day to go.
Goldin has a 2007 Topps Chrome Refractor Kevin Durant Rookie Card /1499 (PSA 10). Bidding started at $5,000 and through 17 bids is now priced at $26,000 with 24 hours left. Otis has an example with the same grade trading at a $37,950 market cap. The Otis card IPO’d on February 12th for $25,300 and has gained 50% overall.
Rally IPO’d a 1969 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Rookie Card (PSA 8) on November 23rd at a $27,500 market cap. The card has since traded on their secondary market and gained 45.91% during a session on March 9th, increasing its valuation to $40,125. Goldin has a card with the same grade up for sale with bidding at $28,000.
Goldin has a 2009 UD Exquisite Collection Auto Stephen Curry Rookie Card /225 (BGS 9.5) that is currently priced at $13,000 through 13 bids. Rally has a card from the same set with the same grade at a $25,000 market cap.
Otis investors will have a direct comp for the 1997 Brown’s Boxing Floyd Mayweather card (PSA 10) when the Goldin Auction closes Saturday. The Otis card IPO’d on March 10th for $38,880 and began trading on April 5th. The card is currently trading at its IPO price while the Goldin example has reached $20,000 as of Friday afternoon.
Collectable has a 1952 Bowman Mickey Mantle (PSA 8) trading on their platform at a $35,000 market cap. The card IPO’d for $15,000 and is up 133% overall but has dropped 36.4% from its highs over the last month. Goldin has a Mantle from the same series that is also graded PSA 8. Through the first 17 bids, the card sits at $28,000 leading into Saturday’s close.
Collectable is currently scheduled to IPO a John Elway basket on April 29th. The offering features two 1984 Topps John Elway Rookie Cards (PSA 10) and has a market cap of $29,750. Goldin has a single card up for auction this week with bids at $6,500 heading into the weekend.
Collectable and Rally both have 2001 SP Authentic Golf " Autograph Tiger Woods Signed /900 Rookie Cards with the same grade- BGS 9.5/Auto 10. Goldin is closing a PSA 10/Auto 10 version of the card this weekend and bidding is currently at $81,000. The Collectable card IPO’d for $36,000 and the Rally card IPO’d for $18,500. Rally’s Tiger has also appeared on their secondary market- gaining 38% in its first session and now has a $25,530 market cap. Although not a direct comp, we have found PSA 10 examples consistently strike valuations between 2 - 2.2x of BGS 9.5 copies- so investors can monitor that range to accurately price the fractional assets. Investors should also analyze the overall trend of the card and can compare this sale to the April 6th auction which featured a PSA 10 striking a final price of $93,480 (including 20% BP).
The Canadian-produced 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card has been on a record-breaking streak over the last month and investors at Collectable have another direct comp to track. Goldin sold a copy of the card with the same grade for $265,000 at their March Premium Auction and currently has this example- graded PSA 9 with bidding at $202,000. Collectable investors received a buyout offer on Thursday for the card and the final vote will be announced just a few hours before the Goldin cardboard strikes its final price. Collectable’s card IPO’d on December 10th for $67,000 and is currently trading at a $180,900 market cap. The buyout offer is for $225,000 and would represent a 16.3% increase in valuation.
Goldin has a 2003 Panini Sports Mega Craques Cristiano Ronaldo Rookie Card (PSA 10) that will close over the weekend with a final price of at least $120,000. Bidding has reached that valuation with one remaining and investors should track to see how close this example gets to the $230,400 price tag of another PSA 10 that was sold at Goldin on April 6th. Otis currently has a copy graded BGS 9.5 trading at a market cap of $86,080. Their version IPO’d on February 5th at a $21,520 cap and has increased 300% since it began trading.
Investors of the 2004 Panini Sports Lionel Messi Mega Cracks card at both Otis and Rally have an indirect comp to follow this weekend in the red-hot soccer space. Goldin is featuring an example graded PSA 9 while the Otis and Rally cards are both BGS 9.5. The Otis version opened at a $33,700 market cap and is now trading 180% higher, currently priced at $94,360. The Rally card opened at $45,000 and is now up 20%, trading at $54,000. This Messi rookie has experienced strong appreciation in 2021. Goldin sold a BGS 9 example in January for $18,000 and this PSA 9 version is already at $39,000 with one day left. Investors in both the Otis and Rally cards should expect the Goldin card to settle below their investments, since the fractional examples have higher grades, but should still monitor the overall direction of the subsector.
Otis investors will have a direct comparison for their 2004 Panini Sports Mega Cracks Barca Campeon Lionel Messi Rookie Card (PSA 10). The card is scheduled to begin trading on April 27th and will open at a market cap of $25,200. The Goldin example has the same grade and is currently priced at $6,000 through the first 15 bids.
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